What is News Worthy

  • Malone's Magic shines on Pandora!
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  • Can MSNBC shake the Liberal media under Comcast and take over?
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  • Not another investigation!
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  • Did May deal a good hand to Merkel?
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  • Bill Gross: without German Umbrella just another Economist trying to get attention?
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  • Qatar and $12B in orders after Saudi Mega deals in Defense Spend: A new business Model?

Re-inventing America!

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Silicon Valley Vibes!

  • Elon Musk Line: Car mover underground in Hollywood!
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  • Would you allow Siri to drive you around?
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  • Google Ventures : the hidden gold mine? From curing death to scissoring and splicing genes?
  • .
  • GS Warriors : Is Oakland ready to be part of High Tech bubble?
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  • Did Ford Make a big mistake by changing their tradional CEO?
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  • Killing Uber Management: Is it a Mistake which will burst the bubble?

FANG News:

  • What ever happened to House of Cards: Its not even 7 seasons
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  • Mother of all AI? Lets Fix SIRI before leaping too high!
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  • Under steady Republican policies - will American Advertising spend go down?
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  • If Waymo is $70 Billion should Uber be $200B?

Friday, June 16, 2017

AMAZON : Racing to a Trillion Dollar in Value?

Or

Is Amazon the new eBay?
Can Amazon digest Whole Foods?

From a numbers game: the simple math is - Amazon's PE multiple comes down very quickly given another 15 plus Billion dollars whose multiple is way less than Amazon's!

And Whole foods does not have to make profit to retail and grow its business - making it easy to expand ORGANICALLY!

Every 40 years or so American consumers redefine the way they shop and retail industry slowly adapts itself to their behavior.

Woolworth -  Sears to Walmart and now maybe just maybe Amazon? Looking at the stock price and the analysts /pundits one has to believe that the baton has been transferred.
What/Who are they compared with:
eBay Killer
FedEx Destroyer

Netfix Wannabe
Macy's Poacher

Wal-Mart Beater
O'Reilly  Auto parts ??

HollyWood Invader
USPS life giver

And so Amazon's Market Cap is way more than several of those individual parts put together!

Half the revenue from Amazon is third party sale- great but the eBay experience in quality and fakes are creeping up the ladder.

Reliable 2 day Prime delivery has started getting Uberized with low cost delivery service with multiple hands in a single delivery - Amazon Logistics to USPS to local crowd sourced delivery type : making very unpredictable and unreliable delivery services

Netflix : might have a reasonable chance in creating some original content given the willingness to spend money on Talent like Top Gear bunch...having tied it with Amazon Prime it is very difficult to really gauge its success as majority of Amazon's streaming customers are not just streaming subscribers.

AWS: makes it easy to undercut the fees as the technology is used elsewhere...however with no recognizable software and hardware on its own and hardly much profit left to invest beyond its primary business needs - will be difficult to dance to Microsoft and Alphabet's tune as money is bulging out of the seems for the seems!
Retail and the Mall deserters: branding and quality control is something that is not streamlined supply chain and logistics.....with eBay types dominating the Amazon revenue the quality is nothing to write home about. Some branded players while trialing Amazon mall for peddling their products - Macys and the likes may eventually make it tougher for the brands to be pushing through Amazon while they spread them in their floors. Wal-Mart customers go shopping with a budget in mind and come home with what is attractive while Amazon crowd goes with an item in mind and price as a target. With less than  30% of Amazon's revenue overlaps with Wal-Mart's and that number is less than 10% of Wal-Mart's - and barely make money - the transition wont be that easy.

Auto Parts - is a recent headline grabber pushing down most of the brick and mortar ones - the after market business is not an easy one for nickel and dime type of transition - it is a relationship based one with want it now syndrome!

 In today's technology dream - from AI to robotics to drones and what not every headline grabbing news from Alexa to  Amazon buttons and Alexa Fashionista - there is another inch closer to a Trillion dollar value....but reading carefully at the real value underneath the Amazon transformation giant is another eBay brewing!

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

BREXIT: Who should Celebrate & Who should Worry!




BREXIT: Who should celebrate and Who should worry!


Bookies are still sleeping on it! Given the history they might be right again and it may not happen.

Dr Merkel. Mr Putin and the Chinese Premier should raise the glass if the bookies lose!

And POTUS might regret for not having taken the threat seriously- And will realize how much US needed Britain more than the Brits!

Should TESLA be a $1000 Share?


Should Tesla be a $1000 Share?
 GM makes over 10 M, Toyota Makes over 10 M, VW Makes closer to 10 M...and Tesla's run rate??
  Is it relevant?
 Who makes money in the food chain of Automotive jungle?
 From the Most profitable to the least...
 - Oil companies: Exxon, Chevron, Etc
- Parts Manufacturers
 - Services and Maintenance Providers
 - Dealers (A recent study showed that an average dealer in USA makes over a million $ in profit)
 - what is left goes to the Car Manufacturer.
 Looking at Tesla's Ecosystem:
 - Direct to consumer market eliminating the middleman
 - Factory provided services
 - A massive network of charging stations powered mostly by Solar
 - And of course Giga F
 - Tesla the Car Manufacturer
 Other than the parts manufacturers : Tesla owns everything else.
 And how can Tesla change the Range Anxiety?
 They have already talked about Battery swap.
 And with a solar powered charging stations every corner- Tesla can just give away the cars and make money on the batteries and charging!
 Yes GM and others can produce cars- but they are way behind in building and owning the eco system for the Electric Model.
 And that might be the reason for Tesla to hit $1000 may be not during this bubble....but does have the runway paved for its destiny

Monday, June 13, 2016

Mr Quattrone: Has he done it again?

2000 : The high mark was set by CS First Boston and Frank Quattrone- The name Selectica!


Bursting of the bubble was not far from the window!


2016 : The High Mark ..possibly?? Of a different Kind: LinkedIn Marries Microsoft and the broker is Mr Frank Quattrone!


Can he repeat his magic? If we do hear the burst - we certainly need to hand it out to Mr Quattrone!

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Back in the USSR! Kerry and Putin!

First it was a big hearty like smile when shaking hands with Kerry yesterday!


Then a good endorsement for Mr Trump!


And now - white flag to USA! Mr Putin is pen to warmer friendly relationships with USA!


Win Win Win for Russia?

Can Gold Finally succumb to Gravity?

3 Digits has been very solid for Gold! Impossible to fall below $1000!


And that might finally  change. If Gold settles below $1000- then there should be no stopping for till election results are predictable.


It might look like it has come a long way from its peak- but it has gone up a whole lot more than it has come down.







Bubble inside a Unicorn?

WHAO?


Yes - A startup Unicorn creates a VC inside with $80 Million! Purpose is to invest in other startups.


Very creative- doing like Google and other Technology companies -
But being a start up- no matter how solid the revenue base is - its kind of looks silly- other than to say how much power these entities have over return seeking desperate Funds and Hedgies and the likes!


As long as the money is being PLAYED using other peoples money with no transparency - anything is game till it stops!


Abruptly-


till then it makes good headlines and good reading!

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Raining Rates!

Looks like the Banks waited for the call by Yellen to be over before raising the one way rates! Prime is up- but they pretty much said that they will not be passing on the savings to the consumers. Net Interest Income does not add up if you pass a nickel or two to those who put their faith in these banks!

I wonder what will happen if a couple of people go to a few banks with placards saying - give me that nickle rate!

Alphabet's "C" Initiative!

Looks like its official.

C is being polished for the U threat! Uber-ific news from what used be Google!

Looks like Google Maps or is it M- after losing out at Uber decided to find its own customer. And it is C for Car - Auto - cannot be Driverless and "d" as California just released its possible guidelines for Driverless car- it has be be driven with a Driver at all times!


Guess Yellen is Spelled S-A-N-T-A!!!

Though the rate was baked- and everything from Oil compex to High yield market ready to pound teh market- Janet Yellen's magic with words and her ability to toy with the reporters- amazing!

Can She be the most mesmerizing Federal Reserve we have seen in its existence?

Certainly more composed than Ben! And more understandable than the Maestro! 

Can Lower Oil Market Kill the Market?

May be some consolidation in the corporate world exposed to debt and high yield debt- but they only get bought or change ownership - moving wealth from one bucket to another.

The market might go sideways - which it has done for over a year- but with so much of liquidity and so few making decisions on where to put the money- unless there is a change of guard influencing the policy makers-

Equity will be king! And that is with or without Oil!

Another day & another Apple Down grade!

Is he the last one?

A big $5 down grade from $155 to $150!

That makes Apple 35% or something like $210 plus billion dollars from where it is now.

Hedging or being brave?

Can Apple really run out of ammunition and lost its MOJO?

Given where we are in the Communication II cycle- the first one was Telecommunication Era - which lasted 100 plus years and several Trillion dollars of wealth creation-

these down grades could only be an opportunity!

So as Mr Cramer would say --  Buy! Buy!! Buy!!!

The New Bond Prince Explains!

CNBC is quick to embrace the new Bond King, atleast according to Forbes, and bring Mr Gundlach on way before the dethroned Mr Gross.

In our usual arrogant opinion He is a Prince till he can dictate terms with the policy makers-

And today in his live interview on CNBC's Fast Money Half Time interview- he does what Mr Cooperman did earlier in the show - Explain!

Yes - Mr Gundlach has been vocal in saying Fed Will not raise rate this year- changing his tune to Fed Should not Raise rate- to the explanation!

Why they would today!!

Well its always better to be a proxy King and manage other people' money!

I am sure we will hear more about this one way or the other in the new year and we will keep watching!


Slowing to Smell....!

After going through several blogs I came to the conclusion that it is very difficult to write about your day to day life!

Fascinating to see how creative people are and how so many people around the world are able to choose a variety of topic and pour their heart out and paint something so wonderful- full of life and color!

Need Humor! Need Depth and more than anything need perspective! I found it is easy to write about something substantial in which a person is well versed in. It made me think - I went around the last few days looking around and paying attention to everything from nature to relationships!

Now curiosity started posing a question - what is more important to writing? Chosing a topic or having the patience to research and articulate about the impressions that every day events brings to a person?

I thought I will try this every day! For 30 Days!

Impulsive and spontaneous
!

No research - just type as the feelings flow and as the words can portray! Thanks to the Blackberry - now I can try doing that the moment the urge happens without waiting!

As I was deciding on this I found myself in a shop - decided to pull my Blackberry and type what I saw around me...so begins my first piece.

PS. Since Blog has major restricitons on how many posting and what kind of flexibility one can have using the standard template I will try to find a work around using a couple of gadgets to display a couple of days posting at any given time till I figure out a way to display the history!

To avoid dilution of this site I have moved the experiment to another blog under

http://dailylifesigns.blogspot.com

The following is a sample on content with no photos- the Daily Life Signs posting will be more of a pictorial experience!






Walking around a woman's shop!

Looking at the colors in a woman's shop is like peeking into a kaleidoscope. However, one doesn't have to change to feel the vibrant mood.

Amazing styles and fascinating fashion! Trying to coordinate gives the several option that is needed to meet the day to day lifestyles of varying moods and differing ages.

Age appropriate colors! Shades for fading moods!

Bold red!

Sober red!

Flashy red!

Bland red!

Blood Red!

Romantic Red!

Decisions! Decisions! and Decisions!

Deciding the color at the time of shopping gives the option to choose and refine to the various rainbow moods that a person possibly can go through in a fast paced connected world!

Sizes and fits to match every form and need.

Having a choice helps in refinement!

And helps!

In Decisions! Decisions and Decisions!

Startup Wisdom!

May be there is a reason they want a Money Man to run the venture- but the following tip will save a buck or two! This will list a couple of grey hairs to keep!

  • Success is contageous- start it immediately!
  • Share the Vision but not Leadership!
  • Smart money is great - but Lucky Money is even better. Get some!
  • Being passionate is essential - but only after motivation to make money.
  • Establish the TRUE Pecking Order!
  • Let Sales be part of your core strategy- everything else can be bought!
  • If you havent done Selling START DOING IT NOW!

Building your 2nd Million!

Skip the first million and go straight to the second- as the first one is the most difficult one to bring home! The second one can be as tough as the first one but is never tougher than the first one! You can make money - working - investing in stocks/etc - real-estate - starting a business - others Choose your area of interest first as this will help you identify the opportunity and make you easily motivated to work on the 2nd million!

Not in any particular Order!

  • First lets know the facts: 1) Your work life is 40 something years (even at conservative estimate) so lets make sure we plan that Properly
  • 2) Lets identify opportunity to make money with out too much effort- living for Today is Good but lets not lose today's free money in the process like - benefits, tax breaks, sale,coupons,etc
  • 3) Lets not try to make ALL THE MONEY in the same way! Lets break the objective into smaller chunks and assign different ways to make them individually
  • 4) Put the 1st Million in Auto-pilot and set a 10 Years plus Time table
  • Convince yourself that you need the Money
  • Set a time line to achieve the goal.

Relationships - Learning to enjoy them!

Do we retain relationships? Expectations out of frienships vary from society to society & age group to age group. How long do we carry them? Some of them bring fond memories- and some not so pleasant! Here you can expect to see nuggets from my experiences and analysis!

Family & Friends: We spend less time with family than with friends- yet we feel more comfortable with family than friends- Why? Is it because we dont have expectations with family members but we have some on friends?

Allowing the other person to finish their train of thought builds a very long lasting relationship - as it makes you understand the other persons point of view fully & also to respond being aware making even an opposing point of view reasonable.


  • Cherry Pick your arguments - Left or Right Brained!
  • Make every encounter a transaction - this will make leaving baggages behind easy!
  • Qualify the type of relationship - however strange it might be
  • Chasing friendship is not always helpful as it leads to compromise.
  • Family circles - define it and accept it whether you like it or not!
  • Its ok to do different activities with different people!
Prof Dr Peik A Monie's Corner

  • if being number two is not enough go to a lower market
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  • proceeds from a street dog dont bark
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  • shooting the papparazi dont break cameras

DIGITAL IRIS - An inexcusable view of the photograpic world!

Let me see if I can add a few lines every week highlighting my 2 cents on photography- my experiences and desires

Things that make good photos -

- excellent and expensive set of lenses; in this digital era spend less on the body and keep investing in the high end lenses as the lenses will not lose value and the body is still under construction!

- accessories and the right tripod; never underestimate your advantage with a tripod

- plan & choose the subject and the location

- know your subject well!

- look and follow the calendars; simple things like a night with a Full moon- we dont realise that it does not happen every day - if you narrow it to the summer when the sky is still blue - I guess it becomes a couple of times a year- and if you factor n the location and your availability at that location and time...so Knowing the calendar and season helps for a good but not so common picture

- Take some luck with you!

  • Print and Enlarge Some Too
  • Delete Bad Pictures from Storage
  • Isolate Subject's color
  • Assess various profile
  • Add a subject to the frame
  • Take Nature after rain - they look better
  • Transparent Objects like flowers have creative effect with light behind them
  • If you want to enjoy the trip - leave the camera behind!
  • Define the subject for the shoot out trip
  • Take a survey trip before the real shoot out
  • Learn & Buy the Best Tripod
  • Always take a handy utility camera
  • Use Multiple exposure & shots in action oriented moments- this will help you pick the ideal snap - as even a fraction of a second makes a HUGE difference in photos.
  • Know your camers settings!
  • Understand Shutter Lag
  • Understand the camera shakes

AfterMarket Pulse- The boring Services Industry!

Keeping it inefficient is good for every one- A success story and why it will be restricted to a handful in the services Industry- A serious look at the Service Industry and my views on improving them. As a society we have accepted that everything breaks down and needs periodic maintenance. We are willing to pay both money and time to accomodate such services. What we have not done is define what is the service level that is needed for every such incident. From household appliances to industrial equipments we are forced to accept the cost and quality that the market offers. In such a sellers market room for mediocracy is enormous- giving way for opportunities. Yes predicatability is not always easy when it comes to failure or repair - or for that matter to identify what is wrong once the item is broke as it is not always possible to run the equipment ot see what is going wrong! And there are companies that can afford stupidity & those that cannot- if you want to change choose wisely!

  • Three steps: 1) Localize Failure 2) Response to Events 3) Time to Life
  • Inter-dependency at a higer level accelerates return
  • Resposiveness is rewarding - even if it is just to show on site of event!
  • Failure Prevention is difficult - yet possible
  • Know your Industry problems: Inventory, Turn time, Forecasting Failure, Estimating Cost, Finding Talent, Automation tools
  • Know your industry Practices- Swapping parts, using refurbished items, penalty
  • Define Quality of service
  • Attract talent - as service industry does not attract fresh talents
  • Innovote service packages

About Me

Seen me go through cycles driven by Age, Money, Deception, Affection, Success, Failure, Fear- etc. The current cycle puts me in a middle aged bucket with sculpted bitterness trying to tame it to embrace the sweet crime of success and affection.