tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25105490065404950562024-03-14T03:28:21.251-07:00BLUNT!Not. So. What? CommonSense!
Opinionated.
Arts.
Market.
Economics.
Money.
Society.
People.
Mind.
Camera.
Everythingelse!Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.comBlogger466125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-86808460140641041292024-01-25T11:28:00.000-08:002024-01-25T11:58:23.949-08:007 Reasons for Tesla to Divorce Musk!<p><br /></p><ul class="ul1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; list-style-type: "— ";"><li class="li1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 18.2px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 17px;"></span><span class="s1" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 18.24px;">Too much Baggage</span></li><li class="li1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 18.2px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 17px;"></span><span class="s1" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 18.24px;">Finally can license FSD from Waymo that really work</span></li><li class="li1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 18.2px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 17px;"></span><span class="s1" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 18.24px;">Can attract Real Talent</span></li><li class="li1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 18.2px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 17px;"></span><span class="s1" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 18.24px;">De-cult the Investment Climate around Tesla</span></li><li class="li1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 18.2px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 17px;"></span><span class="s1" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 18.24px;">Take Tesla into the next stage of Expansion: Services and Finance</span></li><li class="li1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 18.2px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 17px;"></span><span class="s1" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 18.24px;">Break up Tesla into baby Teslas ( Energy/ Distribution & Services / Transportation- AutoPlus) </span></li><li class="li1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 18.2px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 17px;"></span><span class="s1" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 18.24px;">Overhaul Board</span></li></ul>Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-11294617364928266472022-12-28T10:23:00.001-08:002022-12-28T10:25:09.575-08:00Can Malone kill CNN?<p> Was AT&T made to make John Malone rich? Over several decades every restructure or change in strategy has involved buying or selling from Malone making Malone Rick and look smarter and smarter!</p><p>As they say fool me once…twice..blah blah blah some oneness to coach AT&T management about that! The. Again who cares!</p><p>Ted Turner had a vision and mission and eventually sold out and bought a state and a ship load of buffalos…..CNN took its fair share of misguided tour with extended cousins from HBOs and the likes!</p><p>And now Malone - with the stated goal to make it a news channel again! With a slight bias towards conservative ideology - can he?</p><p>Can he be the middle ground between Murdoch and Koch? Or just be Malone and break it up add a little lipstick to some version of the other trackers and sell a little for a boat load to another AT&T management?</p><p><br /></p>Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-88090926193915317582022-12-27T19:03:00.001-08:002022-12-27T19:03:30.123-08:00Maybe 2023 will be ……<p> <span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 28px; font-weight: bold;">2023</span></p><p class="p2" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 22px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody;"></span><br /></p><p class="p3" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleEmphasizedBody; font-weight: bold;">Going Right</span></p><ul class="ul1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; list-style-type: "— ";"><li class="li3" style="font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody;">war : Biden, Putin summit with Macron, Xi and Z</span></li><li class="li3" style="font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody;">Musk : Twitter raises capital @ higher valuation</span></li><li class="li3" style="font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody;">Inflation & dollar tumbles </span></li><li class="li3" style="font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody;">China : Jack Ma is back; China starts bailing out Property market</span></li><li class="li3" style="font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody;">Powell : Surprises market with rates direction</span></li></ul><p class="p2" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 22px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody;"></span><br /></p><p class="p3" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleEmphasizedBody; font-weight: bold;">Not So Right</span></p><ul class="ul1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; list-style-type: "— ";"><li class="li3" style="font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody;">Apple : Earnings warning</span></li><li class="li3" style="font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody;">Harris : becoming President</span></li><li class="li3" style="font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody;">Covid : Chinese opening lead to spread globally</span></li><li class="li3" style="font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody;">Oil & Gas : War polarizes Energy market and EU unity suffers</span></li><li class="li3" style="font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody;">Iran targeted by U.S. and EU</span></li></ul>Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-21501879444625239022022-12-27T11:16:00.002-08:002022-12-27T11:16:28.049-08:00Twitter Investment Paid off for Elon Musk!<p> Selling Tesla shares to over pay for Twitter?</p><p>And in hind sight looks like the best investment one could make!</p><p><br /></p>Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-21712301941377067452022-12-27T10:28:00.002-08:002022-12-27T10:28:46.927-08:00Are we there Yet?<p> Is it Y2k, Dot Com Burst, GFS….or are we getting closer and closer to the Great Depression?</p><p>War - Tick,</p><p>Automobile driven Bubble - Tick,</p><p>Pyramid Schemes - Tick,</p><p>Political Chaos - Tick…..</p><p>Debt, debt and a mountain of debt everywhere and coming to refinance at a more realistic valuation and sky high interest rate…Tick</p><p>Shadow Banking and regular banking whose books are artificially inflated by pick a number valuation….tick</p><p>new Economy vs Old Economy - Tick….</p><p>Federal Reserve….what Federal Reserve …?…..when the heads of the most powerful printing presses of the world are run by lawyers ….</p><p>Looks like we can go on and on and on….but one thing that is making it closer to the end of what ever we gotten used to in the capital market is Bloomberg TV…Beginning the new era with Technology and Disruptions of old economy paved the way for Bloomberg finally planting its presence in Silicon Valley with mega coverage of anything and everything Technology and the dawn of new era…..till NOW…..suddenly the program got a couple of run of the mill anchors replacing the founding Anchor…and the holidays saw the absence of it altogether with some meaningless programs……and on top of that during the prime trading hours Balance of Power - a Fox look alike program more political that capital market stretched its already boring hour to TWO….hopefully it is the holiday yawn and the British leadership running the boat taking their journey to the King’s land for the merry holidays….</p><p>Is 2023 here yet?</p><p><br /></p>Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-46489476959628802542022-12-21T14:52:00.001-08:002022-12-21T14:52:05.785-08:00Person Behind the Curtain…Pulling the strings??<p>Why name a King just for the Bond Market…when you have someone whose power goes beyond the capital market…..ability to change the fortune for a lost politician?</p><p>Ability to nudge the IMF to slap the newly elected British PM and her team? Leading to her down fall and bringing back a lost candidate to the throne? A PM maker..?</p><p>The current Global Capital market and their players have been playing second fiddle to just one person all year long…..</p><p>And so does the power players in Washington….from debt market to political capital…all from behind the curtain and in front of a camera once a week …..in Bloomberg’s Wall Street Week!</p><p><br /></p><p>Yes the new King of the Hill is Larry Summers!</p><p>If one had listened to his 15 minutes a week interview…..played the bookies or the markets ….one could have played the winning hand week after week all year long!</p><p><br /></p><p>Hats off to Larry Summers for being right consistently!</p>Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-33974340824366540282022-12-20T12:11:00.003-08:002022-12-20T12:11:42.495-08:00And the King is back?<p> Just when we are ready to crown the replacement for Bond King….with reach and influence beyond the past King…</p><p><br /></p><p>He shows up!</p><p>Yes- the Bond King himself writes and speaks about what he is good at doing- Nudging and pushing the Federal Reserve to where he wants them to go next!</p><p>With an OpEd in Financial Times and a follow up interview on CNBC…..his message is loud and clear: Powell…Stop the carnage and Rate Hikes!!</p>Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-50550910221828989422022-12-20T12:06:00.000-08:002022-12-20T12:06:03.195-08:00Can Twitter Make Musk the first Trillion Dollar Man?<p>One just has to look at the power of Twitter!</p><p>No one wants to leave it even though there is no direct monetary rewards for using it…and no matter what their bias towards Twitter’s polarized management practices are…both before and after Elon Musk!</p><p>The spontaneity of its reach and influence on any topic and any population is yet to be realized and felt by the financial community…</p><p>As the great Ford is often quoted as saying ‘you listen to the pundits and we will be building carts with 400 horses and not a Model T’…..or as they say in Silicon Valley if only Jobs had listened to the Wall Street power brokers upon selling Pixar to Disney and joined Disney as a Technology Evangelist he might be the CIO of Disney now!</p><p>So what could delay Twitter making Musk a Trillionaire? Stepping down as Chief Twit and bringing in a CEO!</p><p>When maybe in a decade…at the peak of next Technology boom!</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-9054716111015039242022-11-19T10:03:00.001-08:002022-12-20T13:05:32.550-08:00Crowning the New Power Broker<p><span style="color: white;"> <span face="".SFUIText-Bold"" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-size: 17pt; font-weight: bold;">Is Musk the new Murdoch?</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px;"><span style="color: white;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="color: white; font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;">Organize</span></p><p class="p2" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px;"><span style="color: white;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="color: white; font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;">Amplify</span></p><p class="p2" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px;"><span style="color: white;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="color: white; font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;">Sway</span></p><p class="p2" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px;"><span style="color: white;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px;"><span style="color: white;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="color: white; font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;">For over 50 years one dynasty ruled the politics of Australia, UK and America, that we know of. At the cusp of natural end to a good life....who will take over?</span></p><p class="p2" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px;"><span style="color: white;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="color: white; font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;">Musk?</span></p><p class="p2" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px;"><span style="color: white;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="color: white; font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;">Money- check</span></p><p class="p2" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px;"><span style="color: white;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="color: white; font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;">Communication- check</span></p><p class="p2" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px;"><span style="color: white;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="color: white; font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;">Clout- check</span></p><p class="p1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="color: white; font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: .SFUIText;"><span style="color: white; font-size: 22.66666603088379px;">Reach - Check</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px;"><span style="color: white;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="color: white; font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;">And there are enough polarized politicians on either side, if they are just binary, to capitalize a concentrated power broker.</span></p><p class="p2" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px;"><span style="color: white;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: ".SF UI Text"; font-size: 17px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s2" style="color: white; font-family: ".SFUIText"; font-size: 17pt;">Can Satellite communication system that can connect anybody and anything - both in peace and war time, A lethal amplifying tool that is more powerful than a possible red button...and a boat load of money willing to happily grease the hands to gain or retain authority to manage and use resources of people’s will and effort.....maybe The end of one M paves the way for another M?</span></p>Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-7112054593052966162017-12-14T06:35:00.001-08:002017-12-14T06:35:34.350-08:00Fox Entering the....Mickey and Mini entering foster home?<br />
<br />
Who is the smart one?<br />
<br />
Is there an ultimate winner?<br />
<br />
With the Jobs family owning a major silent stake in Disney - will Murdoch name be legendary like the Rockfeller , Vanderbilt , JP Morgan and the likes who changed the history of America and stay a Kingmaker forever?<br />
<br />
Extending the reach beyond the Conservative world and into the other side with a liberal bias?<br />
<br />
And is this a Foxy move? Or just Murdoch being Murdoch - being the most powerful name in the political world?<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-28204535776192185882017-06-25T18:02:00.001-07:002017-06-25T18:02:31.287-07:00Is Recession Imminent?In post war economy US has been in recession 10 times. Out of those ten recessions but for one all other recessions happened during the Republican Presidency.<br />
<br />
Call it coincidence or conspiracy - Most of them happened in the early days of the Presidency.<br />
<br />
Given that history is on the side of Recession- A not so bold call:<br />
<br />
We should enter a recession in the near future.<br />
<br />
If the past in any indication - the Republican complex should do well. So there are three possible strategies one can take-<br />
<br />
- Be Bold and go long Republican complex: leg in 1/3 and start adding based on price action<br />
- Be aggressive and short S&P and VIX or<br />
- Wait for 3 months into recession and enter the market<br />
<br />
<br />Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-32508785818551465752017-06-16T11:10:00.001-07:002017-06-16T11:10:13.157-07:00AMAZON : Racing to a Trillion Dollar in Value?
<b><span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">Or </span></b><br />
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">Is Amazon the new eBay?</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;"></span><span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">Can Amazon digest Whole Foods?</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">From a numbers game: the simple math is - Amazon's PE multiple comes down
very quickly given another 15 plus Billion dollars whose multiple is way less
than Amazon's!</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">And Whole foods does not have to make profit to retail and grow its
business - making it easy to expand ORGANICALLY!</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">Every 40 years or so American consumers redefine the way they shop and
retail industry slowly adapts itself to their behavior.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">Woolworth - Sears to Walmart and now maybe just maybe Amazon? Looking at
the stock price and the analysts /pundits one has to believe that the baton has
been transferred.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">What/Who are they compared with:</span><br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">eBay Killer</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">FedEx Destroyer</span><br />
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">Netfix Wannabe</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">Macy's Poacher</span><br />
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">Wal-Mart Beater</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">O'Reilly Auto parts ??</span><br />
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">HollyWood Invader</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">USPS life giver</span><br />
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">And so Amazon's Market Cap is way more than several of those individual
parts put together!</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">Half the revenue from Amazon is third party sale- great but the eBay
experience in quality and fakes are creeping up the ladder.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">Reliable 2 day Prime delivery has started getting Uberized with low cost
delivery service with multiple hands in a single delivery - Amazon Logistics to
USPS to local crowd sourced delivery type : making very unpredictable and
unreliable delivery services</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">Netflix : might have a reasonable chance in creating some original
content given the willingness to spend money on Talent like Top Gear
bunch...having tied it with Amazon Prime it is very difficult to really gauge its
success as majority of Amazon's streaming customers are not just streaming
subscribers.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">AWS: makes it easy to undercut the fees as the technology is used
elsewhere...however with no recognizable software and hardware on its own and
hardly much profit left to invest beyond its primary business needs - will be
difficult to dance to Microsoft and Alphabet's tune as money is bulging out of the
seems for the seems!</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">Retail and the Mall deserters: branding and quality control is something
that is not streamlined supply chain and logistics.....with eBay types
dominating the Amazon revenue the quality is nothing to write home about. Some
branded players while trialing Amazon mall for peddling their products - Macys
and the likes may eventually make it tougher for the brands to be pushing
through Amazon while they spread them in their floors. Wal-Mart customers go
shopping with a budget in mind and come home with what is attractive while
Amazon crowd goes with an item in mind and price as a target. With less
than 30% of Amazon's revenue overlaps with Wal-Mart's and that number is
less than 10% of Wal-Mart's - and barely make money - the transition wont be
that easy.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">Auto Parts - is a recent headline grabber pushing down most of the brick
and mortar ones - the after market business is not an easy one for nickel and
dime type of transition - it is a relationship based one with want it now
syndrome!</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 11px;">
<span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Tahoma",sans-serif; margin: 0px;">In today's technology dream - from AI to robotics to drones and what not
every headline grabbing news from Alexa to Amazon buttons and Alexa
Fashionista - there is another inch closer to a Trillion dollar value....but
reading carefully at the real value underneath the Amazon transformation giant
is another eBay brewing!</span></div>
<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike>Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-67462207863542036412016-06-21T18:26:00.001-07:002016-06-21T19:08:19.573-07:00BREXIT: Who should Celebrate & Who should Worry!<br />
<span style="color: red; font-family: "calibri";"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
</span><br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="color: red; font-family: "calibri";"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">BREXIT:
Who should celebrate and Who should worry!</span></b></span></div>
<span style="color: red; font-family: "calibri";">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
</span><br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="color: red; font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="color: orange;">Bookies are still sleeping on it! Given the history they
might be right again and it may not happen.</span></span></span></div>
<span style="color: red; font-family: "calibri";"><span style="color: orange;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
</span></span><div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="color: red; font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="color: orange;">Dr Merkel. Mr Putin and the Chinese Premier should raise the
glass if the bookies lose!</span></span></span></div>
<span style="color: red; font-family: "calibri";"><span style="color: orange;">
</span><span style="color: orange;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
</span><div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="color: orange;">And POTUS might regret for not having taken the threat
seriously- And will realize how much US needed Britain more than the Brits!</span></span></div>
<strong>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></strong></span><br />Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-91004178776122389002016-06-21T18:26:00.000-07:002016-06-21T18:33:04.187-07:00Should TESLA be a $1000 Share?<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">Should
Tesla be a $1000 Share?</span></span></b></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>GM makes over 10 M,
Toyota Makes over 10 M, VW Makes closer to 10 M...and Tesla's run rate??</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is it relevant?</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Who makes money in the food chain of Automotive jungle?</b></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From the Most
profitable to the least...</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- Oil companies:
Exxon, Chevron, Etc</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">- Parts Manufacturers</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- Services and
Maintenance Providers</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- Dealers (A recent
study showed that an average dealer in USA makes over a million $ in profit)</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- what is left goes
to the Car Manufacturer.</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Looking at Tesla's Ecosystem</b>:</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- Direct to consumer
market eliminating the middleman</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- Factory provided
services</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- A massive network
of charging stations powered mostly by Solar</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- And of course Giga
F</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- Tesla the Car
Manufacturer</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Other than the parts
manufacturers : Tesla owns everything else.</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And how can Tesla
change the Range Anxiety?</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have already
talked about Battery swap.</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And with a solar
powered charging stations every corner- Tesla can just give away the cars and
make money on the batteries and charging!</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yes GM and others can
produce cars- but they are way behind in building and owning the eco system for
the Electric Model.</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And that might be the
reason for Tesla to hit $1000 may be not during this bubble....but does have
the runway paved for its destiny</span></div>
Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-8412268038181510832016-06-13T23:01:00.000-07:002016-06-13T23:01:07.687-07:00Mr Quattrone: Has he done it again?2000 : The high mark was set by CS First Boston and Frank Quattrone- The name Selectica!<br />
<br /><br />
Bursting of the bubble was not far from the window!<br />
<br /><br />
2016 : The High Mark ..possibly?? Of a different Kind: LinkedIn Marries Microsoft and the broker is Mr Frank Quattrone!<br />
<br /><br />
Can he repeat his magic? If we do hear the burst - we certainly need to hand it out to Mr Quattrone!Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-34289089829724552882015-12-17T09:55:00.001-08:002015-12-17T09:55:30.571-08:00Back in the USSR! Kerry and Putin!First it was a big hearty like smile when shaking hands with Kerry yesterday!<br />
<br /><br />
Then a good endorsement for Mr Trump!<br />
<br /><br />
And now - white flag to USA! Mr Putin is pen to warmer friendly relationships with USA!<br />
<br /><br />
Win Win Win for Russia?Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-89022346113202711252015-12-17T09:52:00.001-08:002015-12-17T09:52:36.005-08:00Can Gold Finally succumb to Gravity?3 Digits has been very solid for Gold! Impossible to fall below $1000!<br />
<br /><br />
And that might finally change. If Gold settles below $1000- then there should be no stopping for till election results are predictable.<br />
<br /><br />
It might look like it has come a long way from its peak- but it has gone up a whole lot more than it has come down.<br />
<br /><br />
<br /><br />
<br /><br />
<br />Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-55982701532362187692015-12-17T09:46:00.000-08:002015-12-17T09:46:21.042-08:00Bubble inside a Unicorn?WHAO?<br />
<br /><br />
Yes - A startup Unicorn creates a VC inside with $80 Million! Purpose is to invest in other startups.<br />
<br /><br />
Very creative- doing like Google and other Technology companies -<br />
But being a start up- no matter how solid the revenue base is - its kind of looks silly- other than to say how much power these entities have over return seeking desperate Funds and Hedgies and the likes!<br />
<br /><br />
As long as the money is being PLAYED using other peoples money with no transparency - anything is game till it stops!<br />
<br /><br />
Abruptly- <br />
<br /><br />
till then it makes good headlines and good reading!Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-42625816353210618942015-12-16T13:20:00.000-08:002015-12-16T13:20:15.343-08:00Raining Rates!Looks like the Banks waited for the call by Yellen to be over before raising the one way rates! Prime is up- but they pretty much said that they will not be passing on the savings to the consumers. Net Interest Income does not add up if you pass a nickel or two to those who put their faith in these banks!<br />
<br />
I wonder what will happen if a couple of people go to a few banks with placards saying - give me that nickle rate!Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-41072828428444773602015-12-16T13:16:00.000-08:002015-12-16T13:16:42.380-08:00Alphabet's "C" Initiative!Looks like its official.<br />
<br />
C is being polished for the U threat! Uber-ific news from what used be Google!<br />
<br />
Looks like Google Maps or is it M- after losing out at Uber decided to find its own customer. And it is C for Car - Auto - cannot be Driverless and "d" as California just released its possible guidelines for Driverless car- it has be be driven with a Driver at all times!<br />
<br />
<br />Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-1040346882493778442015-12-16T13:12:00.000-08:002015-12-16T13:12:36.771-08:00Guess Yellen is Spelled S-A-N-T-A!!!Though the rate was baked- and everything from Oil compex to High yield market ready to pound teh market- Janet Yellen's magic with words and her ability to toy with the reporters- amazing!<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Can She be the most mesmerizing Federal Reserve we have seen in its existence?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Certainly more composed than Ben! And more understandable than the Maestro! </div>
Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-5873716540417618802015-12-16T09:58:00.001-08:002015-12-16T09:58:28.705-08:00Can Lower Oil Market Kill the Market?May be some consolidation in the corporate world exposed to debt and high yield debt- but they only get bought or change ownership - moving wealth from one bucket to another.<br />
<br />
The market might go sideways - which it has done for over a year- but with so much of liquidity and so few making decisions on where to put the money- unless there is a change of guard influencing the policy makers-<br />
<br />
Equity will be king! And that is with or without Oil!Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-32844303937504198782015-12-16T09:53:00.000-08:002015-12-16T09:53:23.030-08:00Another day & another Apple Down grade!Is he the last one?<br />
<br />
A big $5 down grade from $155 to $150!<br />
<br />
That makes Apple 35% or something like $210 plus billion dollars from where it is now.<br />
<br />
Hedging or being brave?<br />
<br />
Can Apple really run out of ammunition and lost its MOJO?<br />
<br />
Given where we are in the Communication II cycle- the first one was Telecommunication Era - which lasted 100 plus years and several Trillion dollars of wealth creation-<br />
<br />
these down grades could only be an opportunity!<br />
<br />
So as Mr Cramer would say -- Buy! Buy!! Buy!!!Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-46636444420600749242015-12-16T09:48:00.000-08:002015-12-16T09:48:06.360-08:00The New Bond Prince Explains!CNBC is quick to embrace the new Bond King, atleast according to Forbes, and bring Mr Gundlach on way before the dethroned Mr Gross.<br />
<br />
In our usual arrogant opinion He is a Prince till he can dictate terms with the policy makers-<br />
<br />
And today in his live interview on CNBC's Fast Money Half Time interview- he does what Mr Cooperman did earlier in the show - Explain!<br />
<br />
Yes - Mr Gundlach has been vocal in saying Fed Will not raise rate this year- changing his tune to Fed Should not Raise rate- to the explanation!<br />
<br />
Why they would today!!<br />
<br />
Well its always better to be a proxy King and manage other people' money!<br />
<br />
I am sure we will hear more about this one way or the other in the new year and we will keep watching!<br />
<br />
<br />Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2510549006540495056.post-48284004226333046542015-12-15T19:52:00.001-08:002015-12-15T19:52:43.356-08:00Can Taylor Swift turn the tide?For Apple-<br />
<br />
Its been a while since he had any good happen to Apple- stock wise!<br />
<br />
Analyst after analyst go negative but still keep their sky high target numbers- being on both the sides at the same time!<br />
<br />
Product , stock buy back - press release - what ever...seems to be having no magic?<br />
<br />
Can The Taylor Swift streaming bring some new cheer this Christmas for Apple?<br />
<br />
<br />Cold Frictionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15307202665820513157noreply@blogger.com0