The last few weeks has seen a steady stream of data showing not just a leveling of the economic data but has shown a steady uptick.
With the Currency showing some strength and the bond market being receptive to the heavy dose of Treausry auctions.....and the perenial Bears of America Faber and the likes jumping shipsbefore the tide rises- the new year appears to be headed for an usual early stage Economic cycle.
With Europe , Japan and China competing for the American consumers - and the Obama Administration keen on Major changes Domestically with an eye of Manufacturing export- The next Decade should bode well for Corporate America!
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Iran and the Rumours!
With the Energy complex closing on a relatively high note- it is difficult not to raise an eyebrow to the rumours surrounding Iran!
From a plan waiting to fly the Ayatollah to Russia and even the recent attempt of stepping into Iraq might hve been a distraction tacticts by the ruling Government in Iran!
Can it survive the New Year? Is it a Twitter & YouTube coup? Or just another Oil market speculation and rumour to push the il abouve the $80 resistance for another run at the century mark?
From a plan waiting to fly the Ayatollah to Russia and even the recent attempt of stepping into Iraq might hve been a distraction tacticts by the ruling Government in Iran!
Can it survive the New Year? Is it a Twitter & YouTube coup? Or just another Oil market speculation and rumour to push the il abouve the $80 resistance for another run at the century mark?
A Humble request to Mr Wozniak!
Mr Wozniak - the world credits you as one of the Founders of Apple & a great Technology Genius- and RIGHTLY So!
It is a bit dis-heartening to see you riding that SegWay and promoting Auto-Body with a Blonde? Yes - it could be for a friend , or could also be a pure business deal ...still- it is difficult to see a person with such an Image associated with a low quality TV commercial.
Even if you dont want to remove from the commercial - please have a better Agency produce an Elegant and Image appropriate spot.
It is a bit dis-heartening to see you riding that SegWay and promoting Auto-Body with a Blonde? Yes - it could be for a friend , or could also be a pure business deal ...still- it is difficult to see a person with such an Image associated with a low quality TV commercial.
Even if you dont want to remove from the commercial - please have a better Agency produce an Elegant and Image appropriate spot.
Apple and Googe: A conspiracy Theory!
The firt decade of the new Millenium saw the gradual rise of two unusual Tech companies to emerge as the pillars of the future- Apple and Google! With Google's Eric Schmidt on Apple's Board and both having additional common Board Members and supporters - And ofcourse a common Enemy in Microsoft!
Suddenly as the decade is coming to an end - Eric is gently booted out of Apple's board; Genentech's CEO who warmed the seat's of bith these companies - quietly resigns from Google! All in the middle of sum rumblings in DC about possible conflicts of collisions for an Anti-competitive possiblities againts the MIghty Microsoft and the old generation Technology Giants!
Shortly after these - Google announces its full force entry into Mobile market and a possible iPhone look alike- only to be dubbed as an iPhone Killer by the media and the analysts!
Buddies for a decade and suddenly Google and Team - after being in Apple's iniside quarters all these years - stabbing Apple?
Both companies quiet on the exit of Eric and the entry of Droid!
Is it a classical case of traitor or just another step of collision to fight against the Mighty Microsoft and the 8000 Pound Gorrillas of the Telecom Giants - Att and Verizon and the likes who have kept their hold on Telecommunications and Internet and prevented the spread of free access to information and innovation?
May be Time will tell!
May Be , Just May be - The consumers are sowly getting a look at what change of Guard can do and what innovation through free mind and access can provide!
Suddenly as the decade is coming to an end - Eric is gently booted out of Apple's board; Genentech's CEO who warmed the seat's of bith these companies - quietly resigns from Google! All in the middle of sum rumblings in DC about possible conflicts of collisions for an Anti-competitive possiblities againts the MIghty Microsoft and the old generation Technology Giants!
Shortly after these - Google announces its full force entry into Mobile market and a possible iPhone look alike- only to be dubbed as an iPhone Killer by the media and the analysts!
Buddies for a decade and suddenly Google and Team - after being in Apple's iniside quarters all these years - stabbing Apple?
Both companies quiet on the exit of Eric and the entry of Droid!
Is it a classical case of traitor or just another step of collision to fight against the Mighty Microsoft and the 8000 Pound Gorrillas of the Telecom Giants - Att and Verizon and the likes who have kept their hold on Telecommunications and Internet and prevented the spread of free access to information and innovation?
May be Time will tell!
May Be , Just May be - The consumers are sowly getting a look at what change of Guard can do and what innovation through free mind and access can provide!
Calling Bluff on the Currency!
All of this decade we have been seeing pundints, Economists and Investent Bankers calling on teh Demise of the King Dollar!
From European Politicaians to Chinese Government Officials have been calling for the American Policiy Makers and Bankers to get in control of the runaway deficits.
In the Middle of the crisis the printing machines around the world went overtime with the Domestic ones using its Economic might and sophistication to be even more efficient in leveraging the additional availability and its reach!
More doom sayers and prognasticators for the fall of Dollars- Only this time it was joined by the Mighty Rusputans and the Middle East Oil Barrons!
Come the new Administration and the Obama Administration - Under Larry Summers they started this very straight forward endorsement a Weaker Dollar!
The Music stopped! The Tide went down! The Dollar went up!
With Chinese Government refusing to let go of the Dollar forced the Japanese government to jaw bone the currency market to support the Dollar to change the Yen strength! Europeans with their Export oriented economy threatened at a strong Euro and weaker Yuan and YEn - started backing the Dollar!
Did the Obama Administration change the tide by simply calling Bluff on those Policy makers of the global closed economies who relied on Exports allowing the Domestic Economists and the Policy Makers to readjust their strategy for the next Decade?
Now from Faber to Biggs to every one else around the world is caling for a Stronger Dollar!
Is this a political game of the haves and the have nots playing in the capital market- with the Governments and POlicy makers blindly throwing darts without really understanding either the capitalism or the Economic Fundamentals? Or just another Investment manipulation by the allmighty Investment Bankers?
From European Politicaians to Chinese Government Officials have been calling for the American Policiy Makers and Bankers to get in control of the runaway deficits.
In the Middle of the crisis the printing machines around the world went overtime with the Domestic ones using its Economic might and sophistication to be even more efficient in leveraging the additional availability and its reach!
More doom sayers and prognasticators for the fall of Dollars- Only this time it was joined by the Mighty Rusputans and the Middle East Oil Barrons!
Come the new Administration and the Obama Administration - Under Larry Summers they started this very straight forward endorsement a Weaker Dollar!
The Music stopped! The Tide went down! The Dollar went up!
With Chinese Government refusing to let go of the Dollar forced the Japanese government to jaw bone the currency market to support the Dollar to change the Yen strength! Europeans with their Export oriented economy threatened at a strong Euro and weaker Yuan and YEn - started backing the Dollar!
Did the Obama Administration change the tide by simply calling Bluff on those Policy makers of the global closed economies who relied on Exports allowing the Domestic Economists and the Policy Makers to readjust their strategy for the next Decade?
Now from Faber to Biggs to every one else around the world is caling for a Stronger Dollar!
Is this a political game of the haves and the have nots playing in the capital market- with the Governments and POlicy makers blindly throwing darts without really understanding either the capitalism or the Economic Fundamentals? Or just another Investment manipulation by the allmighty Investment Bankers?
Friday, December 25, 2009
Trends and Changes for the Next Decade!
These are what to expect in the next decade that could change or disrupt things for tethe better or worse:
The Next Decade
Bio generics
Natural Gas as the next shift in energy play
General Motors regaining Global Leadership
VOIP replacing Cell phones
Second coming of Microsoft
Collapse of Euro
Japan center of controversy
India as a battle ground for Terrorism
Left Brain development leads to a new form of global political unrest and a new order in international governance
End of Goldman Sachs
The Next Decade
Bio generics
Natural Gas as the next shift in energy play
General Motors regaining Global Leadership
VOIP replacing Cell phones
Second coming of Microsoft
Collapse of Euro
Japan center of controversy
India as a battle ground for Terrorism
Left Brain development leads to a new form of global political unrest and a new order in international governance
End of Goldman Sachs
The Netscape moments of the last Decade!
Internet and Networking was in a cross road when Netsape swept people to the mesmerizing experience of distributed and easily accessible information. Though Netscape was short lived the omnipresence of Internet and its not yet recognized impact on the Human evolution is leaps and bounds.
In this madness of advancement and media polarization we tend to overlook those moments , the Netscape moments , that paves the way for a major change and shift in people behaviour or conveniences - not to mention corporate improvement. This might be products, innovation or just political encounters or events that has a far reaching implication that is overlooked after its initial moments of notoriety!
The Netscape Moments of the last decade:
China holding onto American Spy plane
End of Iraq War and US Policy shifts in Asia
The Paulson - Bush(s) Family week long stay in China during the Olympics
Sonya Gandhi passing up PM post in India
Collapsed merger of WorldCom and Sprint
The Paulson Bazooka sales pitch
WebVan - retail and Internet delivery from Internet Supply chain to personalization of product and logistics!
Napster – from Music and current social networking & viral acceptance of consumer force
In this madness of advancement and media polarization we tend to overlook those moments , the Netscape moments , that paves the way for a major change and shift in people behaviour or conveniences - not to mention corporate improvement. This might be products, innovation or just political encounters or events that has a far reaching implication that is overlooked after its initial moments of notoriety!
The Netscape Moments of the last decade:
China holding onto American Spy plane
End of Iraq War and US Policy shifts in Asia
The Paulson - Bush(s) Family week long stay in China during the Olympics
Sonya Gandhi passing up PM post in India
Collapsed merger of WorldCom and Sprint
The Paulson Bazooka sales pitch
WebVan - retail and Internet delivery from Internet Supply chain to personalization of product and logistics!
Napster – from Music and current social networking & viral acceptance of consumer force
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Merry Christmas! And the Goody bag missed the coal....
As the year and the Decade winds down in the next few days- looking back certainly throws some above average painful moments from the Telecom and Internet Bubble to 9/11 to the recent almost Depresson scenario....With so many wars in a decade from Rusians marching into Georgia and the US grabbing most of the Middle east and APAC headlines- and CHina having its share - to mention a just a few- is certainly unbeleivable to think that we are closing a high growth quarter.
With More innovation and globalization in the oven - the next decade might prove to be a more sober and successful one with limited disruption.
With More innovation and globalization in the oven - the next decade might prove to be a more sober and successful one with limited disruption.
Tarnishing the Tiger Brand: From Tatiana to Tiger Woods!
Promiscuity , Infidelity , Groupies , Seconds .....Name what you want to we live in a society where Politicians from George Washington onwards to Kennedy and onto Mr Clinton - breached the same delicate line that Mr Woods accidentally stumbled into.
Successful celebrities who managed their public image and private relationship through a very well paid PR agency managed to keep their private lifestyle secret using a very carefully managed group of managers and workers. Even the Boyish Brits from Liverpool who have such a lovable image globally had a very well managed professionals who took care of their not so proud private life and kept it out of the public life until recently. From Musicians to Sports personalities this has been a well accepted practice whether it is morally acceptable or not - and to a large extent it has been kept away from public through some sort of unwritten but widely accepted practice by the press and media....as long as it is managed well from teh celebrity side.
It might have been difficult for Tatiana to use that option - but a successful personality like Mr Woods to have a Brittany Spears like PR team with so much at stake in the corporate world from Accenture to Nike and everyone else in between- and to let it unravel....!
Successful celebrities who managed their public image and private relationship through a very well paid PR agency managed to keep their private lifestyle secret using a very carefully managed group of managers and workers. Even the Boyish Brits from Liverpool who have such a lovable image globally had a very well managed professionals who took care of their not so proud private life and kept it out of the public life until recently. From Musicians to Sports personalities this has been a well accepted practice whether it is morally acceptable or not - and to a large extent it has been kept away from public through some sort of unwritten but widely accepted practice by the press and media....as long as it is managed well from teh celebrity side.
It might have been difficult for Tatiana to use that option - but a successful personality like Mr Woods to have a Brittany Spears like PR team with so much at stake in the corporate world from Accenture to Nike and everyone else in between- and to let it unravel....!
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Doing God's Work!! With a little help from my Friend ......!
FT courageously or cowardly spots Mr Blankfein for the covetted Man of the Year award!
Rightly or Wrongly - May be Mr Paulson should have got the award for aiding the Golden Boy to retain its Wall Street foundation and make money.
Betting on borrowed money when the time grinds to a halt - with the candle fading for the world while the select few carving the End of Time.....well its for another generation to dig into the dirt and write history book.
For now we will be fair and endorse the FT research as the year and decade comes to an end of excess with managed manipulation spreading globally and the covetted profit retained by those who knew and had access to the previliged laws...still leaving the door open for more to come.
Rightly or Wrongly - May be Mr Paulson should have got the award for aiding the Golden Boy to retain its Wall Street foundation and make money.
Betting on borrowed money when the time grinds to a halt - with the candle fading for the world while the select few carving the End of Time.....well its for another generation to dig into the dirt and write history book.
For now we will be fair and endorse the FT research as the year and decade comes to an end of excess with managed manipulation spreading globally and the covetted profit retained by those who knew and had access to the previliged laws...still leaving the door open for more to come.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Exxon and the next Energy direction!
After 100 years of dominance in the energy market giving its employees and share holders the best possible returs for aover 100 years - Exxon decides to enter NatGas with a huge acquisition. Nat Gas has been ignored in large part due to the dominance of the Oil companies like Exxon - making it very difficult for distribution and adoption by users.
With Mr Obama forcing a Energy policy which is moving away from Oil and making it difficult for the Oil Lobbyists to make headway - Exxon might have a good strategy to extend its dominance int eh energy complex - hoping the alternate energy camp will fail to catch up its muscle in speed and cost.
If the bet by Exxon pays in the near term - it could be a big blow for Oil and oil dependent economies and ocmpanies and could play a huge role in reducing deficits.
With Mr Obama forcing a Energy policy which is moving away from Oil and making it difficult for the Oil Lobbyists to make headway - Exxon might have a good strategy to extend its dominance int eh energy complex - hoping the alternate energy camp will fail to catch up its muscle in speed and cost.
If the bet by Exxon pays in the near term - it could be a big blow for Oil and oil dependent economies and ocmpanies and could play a huge role in reducing deficits.
Microsoft & i4i - The irony of Gates's Kingdom!
Mr Gates found the empire not on innovation but on Execution.
Innovation can be bought and stolen as long has you have a strong bull dog mentality.
One of Gates' friend told in a recent CNBC special - that Bill Gates warned not to disclose or share secrets as him will copy them! Thats a good trait to have to warn before copying!
In its long history of Corporate Pirate Act - All their near monopoly situation was achieved by Bull dozing and impeccable execution! From DOS to Windows - was either bought or stolen , Word, Excel , Powerpoint , SQL Server & its distant cousin , Internet Explorer , and on and on....same story!
In every situation money and time bought them victory both with customers and court rooms.
Until Now - a small company & a small feature! May be insignificant in their importance in a product or its applicabilit or even in critical nature...but in the SoftWare world its a major step- more than EU bribe and verdict!
Even as the desktop and the Microsoft is being driven to the backroom with Internet and Cloud Computing taking a major step into consumers hand and their cell phones and appliances- Innovation will win and the likes of i4i will thrive leaving Microsft to lose respect - even it succeeds to make money through execution!
Innovation can be bought and stolen as long has you have a strong bull dog mentality.
One of Gates' friend told in a recent CNBC special - that Bill Gates warned not to disclose or share secrets as him will copy them! Thats a good trait to have to warn before copying!
In its long history of Corporate Pirate Act - All their near monopoly situation was achieved by Bull dozing and impeccable execution! From DOS to Windows - was either bought or stolen , Word, Excel , Powerpoint , SQL Server & its distant cousin , Internet Explorer , and on and on....same story!
In every situation money and time bought them victory both with customers and court rooms.
Until Now - a small company & a small feature! May be insignificant in their importance in a product or its applicabilit or even in critical nature...but in the SoftWare world its a major step- more than EU bribe and verdict!
Even as the desktop and the Microsoft is being driven to the backroom with Internet and Cloud Computing taking a major step into consumers hand and their cell phones and appliances- Innovation will win and the likes of i4i will thrive leaving Microsft to lose respect - even it succeeds to make money through execution!
Monday, December 21, 2009
Biederlack - The blanket from Greven Germany!
In 1994 I bought a couple of Blankets - with Tiger images for the mild Bay Area Winter. For $20 - it was a no brainer so never paid much attention to it's quality or brand. After a few months started realising that the blanket was very comfortable and also had a unique capability to be cool during sumer and warm duringthe winder months.
The design was very captivating - so ended up using on and off on the sofa as a throw! Occassional guests and friends started commenting about the blankets.After 15 years and several other blankets we have come to a conclusion that - thi si sby far the best one we have owned. Kept looking around in retails and failed to see any one carrying it. Thanks to Google it doesnt take much - we finally found the manufacturer- alas the Economy has done a number! They are shutting down the American Operation.
It is a shame! A German blanket - with a history of over 450years of legacy! Shutting down - dont know if it was the economy or something else- but certainly felt bad as we had used the the 20 dollar blankets for so long and still looked like original and gave the same comfort as it did several years ago.
We did manage to stockpile a few that will last a while!
The design was very captivating - so ended up using on and off on the sofa as a throw! Occassional guests and friends started commenting about the blankets.After 15 years and several other blankets we have come to a conclusion that - thi si sby far the best one we have owned. Kept looking around in retails and failed to see any one carrying it. Thanks to Google it doesnt take much - we finally found the manufacturer- alas the Economy has done a number! They are shutting down the American Operation.
It is a shame! A German blanket - with a history of over 450years of legacy! Shutting down - dont know if it was the economy or something else- but certainly felt bad as we had used the the 20 dollar blankets for so long and still looked like original and gave the same comfort as it did several years ago.
We did manage to stockpile a few that will last a while!
BBC's TOP GEAR!
One of the most fascinating shows that I have watched in quite a while is TOP GEAR that is shown on BBC America. This program is all about cars and races....in a creative and innovative way! In one episode different participants race to teh Airport outside London in different form of transportation - from Bicycling to public mode to boatig and driving! Interesting twist to the routine - very well editted and captured the essence of city life!
The recent episode on Polar Expedition was breath taking - both from an idea to the actual venture. Very UNREAL!
Creative and the participants willing to take the risk on taking such an expedition....is amazing. Words cannot explain or bring out the flavor of the creativity and the adventure that is actually spilled in takin ghtis series. One has to watch to see and appreciate the talent and creative contents.
May be Jeff Immelt of GE-NBC could motivate his producers to watch some of these programs to come with some new and exciting programs in NBC.
The recent episode on Polar Expedition was breath taking - both from an idea to the actual venture. Very UNREAL!
Creative and the participants willing to take the risk on taking such an expedition....is amazing. Words cannot explain or bring out the flavor of the creativity and the adventure that is actually spilled in takin ghtis series. One has to watch to see and appreciate the talent and creative contents.
May be Jeff Immelt of GE-NBC could motivate his producers to watch some of these programs to come with some new and exciting programs in NBC.
Retail and Technology!
After a couple of years of sluggish Christmas season - which was actually quite good for people looking of Computers and laptops - this year was quite interesting!
Walking into a Best Buy or Fry's in Silicon Valley always had a attraction in the Comuter section with a few models discounted rather sharply! Not this time around. Very few models on SALE and that too hardly one would call it substantial.
Going on different websites - same every where! Most of the popula models where sold out and the discounts very skimpy!
Is the consumer Back? And the Technology rebounding in real sense?
From iPhone to Kindle - no discounts to be found anywhere and peope dont seem to mind!
Walking into a Best Buy or Fry's in Silicon Valley always had a attraction in the Comuter section with a few models discounted rather sharply! Not this time around. Very few models on SALE and that too hardly one would call it substantial.
Going on different websites - same every where! Most of the popula models where sold out and the discounts very skimpy!
Is the consumer Back? And the Technology rebounding in real sense?
From iPhone to Kindle - no discounts to be found anywhere and peope dont seem to mind!
This is not Your Grandpa's GM!
Genearal Motors under SBC's management style will be a profitable and successful company.
Restoring GM takes a new outlook and a little friendly nudge from the US government in way of currency management.
Under Mr Obama - Larry Summers and team are very aware of the currency game played by Japan and Europe to keep their export engine going. This has started showing in how the US government has stopped jawboning the currency market and have openly showed interest in an export driven US Economy and how Manufacturing will play a huge role in contributing to the labor force.
With the strong hand from Mr Whitacre and his recent appointment of Mr Liddell from Microsoft shows how critical Change is to the new GM and its management - mostly owned by the US government!
GM will regain its leadership role in the next several years - and will become a global force once again - supporting the emerging Manufacturing leadership of American economy.
Restoring GM takes a new outlook and a little friendly nudge from the US government in way of currency management.
Under Mr Obama - Larry Summers and team are very aware of the currency game played by Japan and Europe to keep their export engine going. This has started showing in how the US government has stopped jawboning the currency market and have openly showed interest in an export driven US Economy and how Manufacturing will play a huge role in contributing to the labor force.
With the strong hand from Mr Whitacre and his recent appointment of Mr Liddell from Microsoft shows how critical Change is to the new GM and its management - mostly owned by the US government!
GM will regain its leadership role in the next several years - and will become a global force once again - supporting the emerging Manufacturing leadership of American economy.
The Harvard SWAP Blame Game!
Mr Summers and his legacy at Harvard may not resonate the way a successful individual might like - but there are some information and evens that need to be looked upon in the right context.
Interest rate swap exposure and its winding down at Harvard might have resulted in a huge liquidity crisis and even take a billion or so in losses - but blaming Mr Summers for the decision to bail out of an instrument prematurely and book the loss- is not right.
Making a decision to enter a trade is only one side to any successful transaction. Equally important is the closing - Most of the successful transactions are done by taking gut wrenching decisions after entering any transactions. In most of the situations the butterflies to hold or double down depends on the personality and often results in making money. After Mr Summers left Harvard - a couple of larger than life personalities have managed the Harvard Investments and has been under different management- and who overlooked the bet during their watch and failed to make any corrective actions - if felt they were caustic.
An immediate reaction by Professors, from Boston U and Bard College who acted less educated than their diplomas would show in their remarks - shows the competitive landscape/landmine that is there in the education world.
Please let the blame go to those who managed the Funds after Mr Summers left Harvard - and a larger portion should go to the Person who took the decisiont o wind down the Swap knowing very well that the Maximum wind down cost is not significantly larger than the premature wind down cost! It is a shame that the press and the media fall prey for political games - they should do a little bit more research before they start throwing darts on a predetermined target - in this case it is a shame - given the political ramifications.
Interest rate swap exposure and its winding down at Harvard might have resulted in a huge liquidity crisis and even take a billion or so in losses - but blaming Mr Summers for the decision to bail out of an instrument prematurely and book the loss- is not right.
Making a decision to enter a trade is only one side to any successful transaction. Equally important is the closing - Most of the successful transactions are done by taking gut wrenching decisions after entering any transactions. In most of the situations the butterflies to hold or double down depends on the personality and often results in making money. After Mr Summers left Harvard - a couple of larger than life personalities have managed the Harvard Investments and has been under different management- and who overlooked the bet during their watch and failed to make any corrective actions - if felt they were caustic.
An immediate reaction by Professors, from Boston U and Bard College who acted less educated than their diplomas would show in their remarks - shows the competitive landscape/landmine that is there in the education world.
Please let the blame go to those who managed the Funds after Mr Summers left Harvard - and a larger portion should go to the Person who took the decisiont o wind down the Swap knowing very well that the Maximum wind down cost is not significantly larger than the premature wind down cost! It is a shame that the press and the media fall prey for political games - they should do a little bit more research before they start throwing darts on a predetermined target - in this case it is a shame - given the political ramifications.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Is Germany's Allianz a Better name for PIMCO?
The bond market Gorilla - ALLIANZ of Germany has been hiding under the American Label PIMCO.
PIMCO ala ALLIANZ played a huge role in Blackmailing the Ben & Hank team during the meltdown - as they were able to have a private puppet show using Mohammad, Paul & Bill - as the government was printing money into their coffers to keep the market afloat. And ofcourse they will have a clean sweep going into the Fund Manager ratings season- for the whole decade.
Now looks like they are on the prowl again- Gross and PIMCO is piling up cash as the year comes to a winding. A full swing from negative 7 percent to positive 7 percent in less than a couple of months - now - thats a huge volatile move unless they are hedging on a big squeeze or a power play. The last time they did was piling on the agency papers before the Government was forced to bail them out!
Only this time around there is a new Sherriff in town! Given what Summers did when PIMCO started circulating the NEW NORM ECONOMY - to be in line with their investment strategy- this could turn out to be a good start to a new power play war!
The bookies might favor the Allianz team purely based on their past 2 years of muscle power- but the the pendulum is beginning to swing in the new Sherriff's favor as Santa circles around the North Pole before heading down!
PIMCO ala ALLIANZ played a huge role in Blackmailing the Ben & Hank team during the meltdown - as they were able to have a private puppet show using Mohammad, Paul & Bill - as the government was printing money into their coffers to keep the market afloat. And ofcourse they will have a clean sweep going into the Fund Manager ratings season- for the whole decade.
Now looks like they are on the prowl again- Gross and PIMCO is piling up cash as the year comes to a winding. A full swing from negative 7 percent to positive 7 percent in less than a couple of months - now - thats a huge volatile move unless they are hedging on a big squeeze or a power play. The last time they did was piling on the agency papers before the Government was forced to bail them out!
Only this time around there is a new Sherriff in town! Given what Summers did when PIMCO started circulating the NEW NORM ECONOMY - to be in line with their investment strategy- this could turn out to be a good start to a new power play war!
The bookies might favor the Allianz team purely based on their past 2 years of muscle power- but the the pendulum is beginning to swing in the new Sherriff's favor as Santa circles around the North Pole before heading down!
Climate Control and the Emerging Market Impact!
Copenhagen or No Copenhagen- Carbon trading is here for the profitable few!
The common demonstration during the summit- though politicised is easily hijacked by the paparazi world!
The real impact will be felt by the ones not co-operating! The Emergig markets and their future depends on how fast they can build their Industrial base along with the infrastructure- Any constraints from Copenhagen will have a huge negative impact and they will have to pay a penalty - both the price to build the pent up demand of infrastructure and the time....so is there a reason for them to comply? Not really! As a delay in build out of their infra and industrial base will widen the gap between the developed economies and developing economies. In this world of zero latency internet world it might be difficult to keep anyone from understanding the hidden agenda of the Clean Air crowd.....Ironically Big Al might be doing a BIG favor to the developed economies by his campaign - without really understanding the impact of his Nobel prize!Just like his accidental association with Internet!
The common demonstration during the summit- though politicised is easily hijacked by the paparazi world!
The real impact will be felt by the ones not co-operating! The Emergig markets and their future depends on how fast they can build their Industrial base along with the infrastructure- Any constraints from Copenhagen will have a huge negative impact and they will have to pay a penalty - both the price to build the pent up demand of infrastructure and the time....so is there a reason for them to comply? Not really! As a delay in build out of their infra and industrial base will widen the gap between the developed economies and developing economies. In this world of zero latency internet world it might be difficult to keep anyone from understanding the hidden agenda of the Clean Air crowd.....Ironically Big Al might be doing a BIG favor to the developed economies by his campaign - without really understanding the impact of his Nobel prize!Just like his accidental association with Internet!
Thursday, December 17, 2009
How to Prioritise ....The Inside Microsoft Dilemma!
In a World with no Walls- There is no room for Windows!
Looking at the recent Microsoft campaign - it is vary clear that Microsft neither understood what the consumer wanted not what the Technology can do to make this a better world - both professionally and otherwise! Prioritise
After Mama helped in the IBM boardroom - Lotus could be buried! Apple - not even close...Netscape was easy! Novel was too easy! Sybase and Borland- Intuit was a tragedy! WordPerfect - that's a shame! Didn't get past first base! Sun and Oracle gave a run for it but couldn't really win over! In every instance partnering, bullying and copying was done sequentially and encouraged by the US laws.
Now seeing things in multi-dimension and parallel processing - it does not look that easy anymore! Who should Microsoft be focusing on?
Google- A Microsoft in the making in the next generation!
Apple - After getting slapped by Microsoft Mr Jobs had a tough round of bouts with Sculley and the recent Google behaviour- Still seems to have the Mojo - only this time stronger and deep pocketed!
Oracle - Seems to have carved out a lane for its fast moving M&A strategy! From database to applications - the competition is not even in the same stadium!
Adobe - looks like Redmond gave up on this one, at least publicly
Nintendo & SONY - may be there is a chance for the number 2 spot - if Apple does not take over the gaming platform in the next two years
Amazon: the neighborhood bully appears to be a silent retail juggernaut in the making.....but hidden behind the curtain might be a huge cloud hanging over the technology roadmap - with Google and the others bulldozing into Cloud Computing -Amazon is practically spreading like a virus. With its Kindle and other consumer aspirations - could be a strong bulldog in the technology to come...
In today's technology Microsoft and the bullies are still dominant and have managed to pay their way out of all anti-competitive measures.....but what is brewing in the pot is not your grandfather's technology! This is a War in different areas and dimension - with every one of them from Apple to Google to Adobe - strong and deep pocketed...and with likes of Eric Schmidt hobnobbing with the DC folks - might be tough for Microsoft to win all the WARS ...as each one of them is not a battle anymore- even if Mr Gates is back - it will be very difficult to dominate the way they did the last couple of decades.
Thank you Mr Gates and Microsoft - for bringing us to today's stage!
As the new slogan for Microsoft resonates - A world without Walls - talking about Apple and Google- In a world with no Walls there is no room for Windows!
Looking at the recent Microsoft campaign - it is vary clear that Microsft neither understood what the consumer wanted not what the Technology can do to make this a better world - both professionally and otherwise! Prioritise
After Mama helped in the IBM boardroom - Lotus could be buried! Apple - not even close...Netscape was easy! Novel was too easy! Sybase and Borland- Intuit was a tragedy! WordPerfect - that's a shame! Didn't get past first base! Sun and Oracle gave a run for it but couldn't really win over! In every instance partnering, bullying and copying was done sequentially and encouraged by the US laws.
Now seeing things in multi-dimension and parallel processing - it does not look that easy anymore! Who should Microsoft be focusing on?
Google- A Microsoft in the making in the next generation!
Apple - After getting slapped by Microsoft Mr Jobs had a tough round of bouts with Sculley and the recent Google behaviour- Still seems to have the Mojo - only this time stronger and deep pocketed!
Oracle - Seems to have carved out a lane for its fast moving M&A strategy! From database to applications - the competition is not even in the same stadium!
Adobe - looks like Redmond gave up on this one, at least publicly
Nintendo & SONY - may be there is a chance for the number 2 spot - if Apple does not take over the gaming platform in the next two years
Amazon: the neighborhood bully appears to be a silent retail juggernaut in the making.....but hidden behind the curtain might be a huge cloud hanging over the technology roadmap - with Google and the others bulldozing into Cloud Computing -Amazon is practically spreading like a virus. With its Kindle and other consumer aspirations - could be a strong bulldog in the technology to come...
In today's technology Microsoft and the bullies are still dominant and have managed to pay their way out of all anti-competitive measures.....but what is brewing in the pot is not your grandfather's technology! This is a War in different areas and dimension - with every one of them from Apple to Google to Adobe - strong and deep pocketed...and with likes of Eric Schmidt hobnobbing with the DC folks - might be tough for Microsoft to win all the WARS ...as each one of them is not a battle anymore- even if Mr Gates is back - it will be very difficult to dominate the way they did the last couple of decades.
Thank you Mr Gates and Microsoft - for bringing us to today's stage!
As the new slogan for Microsoft resonates - A world without Walls - talking about Apple and Google- In a world with no Walls there is no room for Windows!
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Is Google the Next Microsoft?
Looking at how Google is behaving/projecting itself to the outside world- looks similar to how Gates and Microsoft had behaved before they started losing their mindshare..
Recent Google news:Eric Schmidt is quoted:
"if you don't want to be displayed in Google search don't do it in the first place!"
"We have the knowhow to even predict how the stock prices will behave...but we don't want to do it"
And ofcourse Eric Schmidt was in Apple's board till he was booted out just before their iPhone look alike was leaked!
It will be interesting to see if someone would do a Martha Stewart on Eric marking the slow down of Google? ( Martha Stewart when asked by CNBC about her competitive position in internet against the likes of Gates ...she laughed and said never felt better especially when you look at how Gates spent several million dollars to WIRE his palace just before the 100 dollar wireless router replaced them)
Recent Google news:Eric Schmidt is quoted:
"if you don't want to be displayed in Google search don't do it in the first place!"
"We have the knowhow to even predict how the stock prices will behave...but we don't want to do it"
And ofcourse Eric Schmidt was in Apple's board till he was booted out just before their iPhone look alike was leaked!
It will be interesting to see if someone would do a Martha Stewart on Eric marking the slow down of Google? ( Martha Stewart when asked by CNBC about her competitive position in internet against the likes of Gates ...she laughed and said never felt better especially when you look at how Gates spent several million dollars to WIRE his palace just before the 100 dollar wireless router replaced them)
Monday, December 14, 2009
The Gold Bug!
Can Gold be the Next Oil this year?
Gold ride is shaping up like the bull run of Oil and blow up may be this year!
Reasons:
Old story of Fiat currency & hyper inflation will take a new meaning as unlike in the past US government is supporting a weak currency! And pushing big time towards export – through Manufacturing! Now this being a very different approach from the past – brings a dilemma to the investment community- which used to bet on Gold with the hope of higher rates to support currency! Now that assumption is out the door! With China and Japan fighting to keep their currencies weak to feed US market & European Export book is in the verge of collapse with a weaker dollar- ECB is afraid to let the Dollar collapse as it will break their economy!
The Obama administration is playing a delicate & dangerous game in fixing the local economy – and might get away with it and get rewarded - given the precarious nature of the global political climate!
Talking of climate - Even the climate control will work in the developed economies favor as it could slow down emerging economies in the name of carbon!
During the melt down - the Treasury & Federal Reserve were dancing to the tune of the bond/treasury holders...like PIMCOs of the world- now the cards have changed: Recently Larry Summers immediately slapped PIMCO's assessment of the economy and saw a adjustment from the PIMCO management with some soothing words in line with the Obama play book! From Goldman to GM - everyone playing to the same tune! Geithner & Bernake fighting their role and credentials in congress- unlike anything from the past - shows their courage - even as they fine tune their scripted speech to sound like the Obama administration..the Bonus issues...And on and on....all indicating how strong and determined the current administration has become. Unlike any in the past - this Administration has fully focused on domestic issues and politicallly correct foreign issues - to bring back focus to a balanced labor mix to the American Economy - a deviation from the past several decades where the Administrations have left the economy to drift towards services and white collar jobs....leaving a gaping hole for the labor force.
Gold Speculation : While UK and Germany etc sold Gold at $230 an ounce USA kept its 8100 T of Gold and on book it is valued at $45
Weak Dollar:
The Good: Export oriented economy is supported enabling reduced trade imbalance
The Bad : Import prices increases with expansionary inflation – mitigation: RNB wedded to dollar and China being the largest exporter of the Walmart economy -will keep American Economy & inflation in check
The Ugly: Huge debt burden and the chances of revolt by Bond Holders – Solution: Creating uncertainty in the global market and support from foreign central banks which rely a lot on US market will end up eating by fighting against each other ( China 1-Japan -0 ; India with 200T Gold managed to be creative in keeping a sliding Dollar and a surging local economy from strengthening the Rupee), Fractional EU and Middle East turmoils, Russia on the verge of melt down AGAIN with the low oil price.on and on)
Technically speaking - obviously looking at the rear view mirror - Gold has always topped out at 5X - if we take the current bull run to have originated around 250 - it should be there right about now or just around the corner.
Current Gold price target : ranges from a low of $1500 to a high of $6500! Sounds like the oil prediction from Goldman and Morgan Stanley of last year!
Soros: EU would like to see UK crumble- obviously a wishful thinking given the fact the London Bankers still rule the European Financial markets! The fate of PIGS in the EU community - also underscores the ECB's headSTORM! With regional politics and deficits rampant - ECB will be helpless when France and GErmany fare well at the expense of weaker siblings - this scenario will hinder ECB and other European heads to fight US printing at will.
Gold ride is shaping up like the bull run of Oil and blow up may be this year!
Reasons:
Old story of Fiat currency & hyper inflation will take a new meaning as unlike in the past US government is supporting a weak currency! And pushing big time towards export – through Manufacturing! Now this being a very different approach from the past – brings a dilemma to the investment community- which used to bet on Gold with the hope of higher rates to support currency! Now that assumption is out the door! With China and Japan fighting to keep their currencies weak to feed US market & European Export book is in the verge of collapse with a weaker dollar- ECB is afraid to let the Dollar collapse as it will break their economy!
The Obama administration is playing a delicate & dangerous game in fixing the local economy – and might get away with it and get rewarded - given the precarious nature of the global political climate!
Talking of climate - Even the climate control will work in the developed economies favor as it could slow down emerging economies in the name of carbon!
During the melt down - the Treasury & Federal Reserve were dancing to the tune of the bond/treasury holders...like PIMCOs of the world- now the cards have changed: Recently Larry Summers immediately slapped PIMCO's assessment of the economy and saw a adjustment from the PIMCO management with some soothing words in line with the Obama play book! From Goldman to GM - everyone playing to the same tune! Geithner & Bernake fighting their role and credentials in congress- unlike anything from the past - shows their courage - even as they fine tune their scripted speech to sound like the Obama administration..the Bonus issues...And on and on....all indicating how strong and determined the current administration has become. Unlike any in the past - this Administration has fully focused on domestic issues and politicallly correct foreign issues - to bring back focus to a balanced labor mix to the American Economy - a deviation from the past several decades where the Administrations have left the economy to drift towards services and white collar jobs....leaving a gaping hole for the labor force.
Gold Speculation : While UK and Germany etc sold Gold at $230 an ounce USA kept its 8100 T of Gold and on book it is valued at $45
Weak Dollar:
The Good: Export oriented economy is supported enabling reduced trade imbalance
The Bad : Import prices increases with expansionary inflation – mitigation: RNB wedded to dollar and China being the largest exporter of the Walmart economy -will keep American Economy & inflation in check
The Ugly: Huge debt burden and the chances of revolt by Bond Holders – Solution: Creating uncertainty in the global market and support from foreign central banks which rely a lot on US market will end up eating by fighting against each other ( China 1-Japan -0 ; India with 200T Gold managed to be creative in keeping a sliding Dollar and a surging local economy from strengthening the Rupee), Fractional EU and Middle East turmoils, Russia on the verge of melt down AGAIN with the low oil price.on and on)
Technically speaking - obviously looking at the rear view mirror - Gold has always topped out at 5X - if we take the current bull run to have originated around 250 - it should be there right about now or just around the corner.
Current Gold price target : ranges from a low of $1500 to a high of $6500! Sounds like the oil prediction from Goldman and Morgan Stanley of last year!
Soros: EU would like to see UK crumble- obviously a wishful thinking given the fact the London Bankers still rule the European Financial markets! The fate of PIGS in the EU community - also underscores the ECB's headSTORM! With regional politics and deficits rampant - ECB will be helpless when France and GErmany fare well at the expense of weaker siblings - this scenario will hinder ECB and other European heads to fight US printing at will.
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