Howard Stern Stays put: SIRIously?

America saw the softer, gentle side of Howard Stern- on AGT!

Possibly one of the best that could have happened to Howard Stern &  SiriusXM.

A different demographics and a different market- much larger and main stream into the Howard Stern fold and SiriusXM is bound to enjoy the benefit.

Looks like a major break through!

The Week Aliens Invaded: Disney Awakens!

4100 Theaters!

And Disney delivers-

Mickey finally meets its match??

Disney and George Lucas- makes Star Wars - a multi generation saga- will global reach only Mickey and Mini can match!

Ka ching!

And looks like the recent haircut on Disney might given a opportunity- again!

And then He Talks: Valeant CEO

The mystery is over.
Can he?
Will He?
Should He?
Bill Did?
Bill Who?
Oh Yes...that Bill!
And Finally CEO of Valeant broke the silence with a deal- a market moving one with Walgreens and a price break even Touring will sweat!

And CNBC did a good job of playing neutral after trashing pretty much everything from A to Z during the The GREAT SHORT???

Even after Mr Andrew "VRX" Left - left the short and dialed back- Valeant was silent and rightly so for a very long time. Valeant might be the poster boy for price anamoly in the Pharma industry - but it is not an exception.

As long as the Industry behaves and responsibility can be scattered and buried and supported indirectly rampant and flawed system- what the CEO delivered was typical McKinsey Style.

And CNBC listened- it appears so will the rest!

Is it the season?

its been a awhile since we had no anchor product entering the final stretch of the Christmas buying frenzy-

No fancy gadgets- toys- electronics- new sell out starvation campaign- and the retails are struggling even in a low gas market-

From Tiffany's to Macys to WalMarts of the world- same sobbing story: No Growth Low margin- no hopes of rebounding- the only new design in the fashion world is LuLu wannabes at an arm and a leg price.And Nike seems to be the only one cashing on that trend.

Blaming of the warm weather is one way to look at it-

maybe the consumers are just tired of shopping? As they spend more and more time and money on passive activities on electronics making them less butterfly like? And more nerdish in a sort of kind of way - shere shopping takes a back seat?

Is this a major shift in outlook and behavior? As the society moves towards a knowledge based economy- more and more people drift in that direction - if this is what is happening - the retail industry may have to reinvent itself- beyond the multi channel strategy!

Junk Bond Terminologies!

Repricing, Discovery!

Il-liquid, Mispriced asset class

redemption, Closing the Gates

Spill over, contained

expanding spread-

Its amazing how much it takes to bring fire to smoke!

And when you have something that is named JUNK and you are still willing to throw money at them for a few points over a guaranteed , at least as of now, government money- you certainly are stupid and deserve the loss. the unfortunate thing is the real losers are not the one speculating under the name of ETFS, Funds, Fund of Funds, Hedgies, Hedge funds, Mutual funds - what ever name that has not been used in the previous stupid cycles- they still made their money while being stupid as they are only burning money that does not belong to them - and charged for doing so! And they can come back again under a new name!

Micron accelerates consolidation!

Micron Technology and Seagate have been very opportunistic over the last twenty something years- always buying bargains and consolidating their positions- mostly as the market dumps them and gets closer and closer to the bottom.

Now that Micron has made the move  we just have to wait for Seagate to do the same - and we will know it is near bargain basement and time to back up the truck and load them up!

PIMCO Boys!

Looks like its been a while since we have Bill Gross and El Erian ruled the Bond Market and Media. we have barked at their power and fall from grace, if you want to call their toothless status now, by powerful maneuver by Uncle Ben and the gang during and immediately after the Financial crisis- which ultimately made them lose their coveted role at German puppet PIMCO.

Now that we have seen the less than stellar performance by Mr Gross and still being in the sideline El Erian- should be claim victory and say it was PIMCO and their German Parent which was so powerful after all and the individuals just carried the torch on their behalf?

Maybe , Just Maybe- !

Is Paris and the Deal opens an opportunity?

For Coal?

Given where Coal is today and how all the major companies are doing- it is very easy to assume that Zero is closer than we think.

Then again that seems to be the case for all hard commodities. Given the importance of Coal in energy creation and how hard it is to dig up new mine or replace existing user base with other technology - it will stay here for a very long time and will not go any more than Zero!

If the companies wipe out the share holders with the debt burden they have- it will only show the power players who have been managing this kind of change for over a century and this time is no different.

but the companies and lobbies that channel their power will only make them stronger going forward.

So if you have some spare change put it on Coal as it can buy more than a bag of coal which will be worth a bunde a couple of Christmas from Now

Time Warner : On the bargain basket!

Netflix could be the streaming kind and a Fifty Billion dollar darling in the market- but in a world of expanding display based entertainment- no one has the capability to produce and retain talent and audience like Time Warner.

In its own way it is like a Disney - only different!

The amazing feat of Time Warner is how it converted CNN and Head Line News into an entertainment pipes.  Not to mention how TBS and TNT has become a huge asset to TW. From original shows to reruns- they have pretty much covered all the demographics and their idiosyncrasies.

Is there going to be bump in the road- of course but it only makes it a n opportunity for the franchise lovers.

At the current price - it is a bargain and Netflix could be successful like HBO but it does not eat into TW market - it only expands the over all market as streaming becomes just another delivery mechanism for everyone in the market - its just that more people from more market pay more to have another option.

Ted Cruz: Is RNC establishment making a last minute dash?

Can the Republican party regain the momentum after a long drawn out battle with Trump and the long tail syndrome?

Will Trump go solo?

Suddenly Ted Cruz is surging in polls and even out foxed Trump! Sampling error or a real game changer that can sustain going into the final leg of the primary?

A good speaker with an authoritative attitude- Ted Cruz can hold himself? But America willing to give another Texan the coveted representation again?

Is Apple the New Red?

From target to Best Buy - it appears every one is throwing away an Apple product!
Seems to be so unusual that almost all the products are discounted steeply.

And even Apple seems to be playing their cards in a hap hazard fashion.

First unlike anytime in the past - Apple exiting the un-bundling news comes from a Network CEO interview on CNBC!

And then the Watch II release date comes out 3 months before - and just before the Christmas shopping peaks!

And then the speakers and hump battery release- in an off beat manner followed by an apologetic Cook - giving excuses for the poor design: making it appear they are desperate to hit the numbers this season by throwing anything for any amount????

And the stock refusing to go anywhere even with such a huge Analyst following, Barron's upping their outlook over and over again- and endless stock buyback every quarter that runs into billions??

With a couple of hundred billion dollars and change - and almost sweeping all the profits from the handset market year after year- and everyone including Google almost given up the leadership role to Apple.......? Is this a pause before surge?

How to Spell Grinch? Y-E-L-L-E-N??

It is the season that we all cheer for!

And this time around Grinch will be a little bit early - may be to celebrate? Given how the Junk Market is behaving and throwing everything they can to paint a new face for Janet Yellen - it looks like it won't be just Retail that will be singing the blues?

With the rest of the world hinging on everything from Terrorism to blinded monetary policies - hoping for a miracle to happen this season- Anxiety abound are we looking for Santa or Grinch- the market has to wait another 73 hours to figure that out!

Pause, Correction or Shift in attitude?

With the market anxiously waiting on the rate hike next week- the market seems to be taking a hair cut - with most of the catalyst coming from High Yield Bond market and the energy complex. With oil Jan contract expiring - and the OPEC not providing the support needed - can it create more confusion in the Energy complex making the market reeling into a forced liquidation affecting all other markets?

So far Santa seems to be delayed and waiting for the snow to hit the road- as the weeping retailers have written home several times in the past few weeks- may be Janet Yellen will not blink in raising the rate and give a pat in the back to encourage the speculators to turn on their greed just in time for Christmas to keep this a happy season.

Junk Bonds and the Market Mavens

Every few years the fixed income market tries to one up the Federal Reserve- and so far they have always managed to get it!

For over 12 years there was one who managed to bully them and the most of the government Policy makers too- And that person was PIMCO founder and Bond King, the one and only of its kind, Bill Gross.

After losing his crown- intentionally or otherwise- the market tries to fight the Federal Reserve and has failed miserably.

And it is really a shame all it takes is a Hedge Fund with less than a billion dollars to rattle the Market!

We are living in a post Financial crisis(SSSS) with so much of controls and transparencies - and still it takes just a small fund to rattle?? Third Avenue Management - might have the reputation for being the game for a very long period - making money one way or the other....but liquidating $789 Million dollars fund- not even a rounding error for the market in which it is played.

Its either the market is just too fragile given how much it has come up or the people trading this market suffers without a King! Its needs a directional leader who either points or paves the way.

And now we have people like Gundlach who can either weep or whine but not be a King like Gross!

2016 - Can it skip election year history?

Historians have a way to spin 2016- and optimists always have a new theory to say that this time it is different.

And can it be different this time?

With a possible Trump vs Hillary match up - anything goes. Can Trump bring excitement to an otherwise boring primary season- if he does and one really has a chance to look at the resume of Hillary: there is no doubt she has the best experiences in quite a while- actually she is as well deserved as the Senior Bush - and she has been trying hasr for a very long time for this moment!

Does that justify 2016 being a different story for he stock market?

With Interest rates finally waking up and the technology companies staying private forever?

Looking at the components of the DJIA - other than Exxon and Chevron every other old economy company has been battered so much....it looks hard for a correction that could last more than a few hundred and couple of months more...especially now that the high priced Nike is planning to split.

After a ho hum 2015 - one wants 2016 to be a robust one!

Debt Burden on Corporate Indulgences?

With Commodities coming down close to where they were originally dug up from- in such a short period- most of the companies which are used to steady economic up and down cycles - were taken by surprise with the steep accelerated fall of almost all the commodities including oil and gas.

with interest rate slated to finally dig out of from basement - all of a sudden all the debt load from the past few years look mountainous!

Understandable for most of the companies in the affected industries. But one sector which is loaded with cash- is also loaded with debt! Sounds oxy moronic to say this - but yes a boat load of cash on the one hand and a boat load of debt on the other hand!

And that seems to be the case in Technology companies - From Apple to Dell they are neck deep in debt. Yes very low rates- in most cases their dividend yield on common shares are more than the interest they are paying on the debt- but still....

This time the dancing around on the debt floor might be very different from the ones we have seen in the past.

And it must be fun - as all these Technology companies have cash overseas and have pretty much used all their debt to either buy back shares or pay dividend! With both front runners not looking too keen on giving any tax break to bring back the cash- it must be fun!

Ford is the new Unicorn?

Ford and GM has been there and done that- Hertz and Avis are still the force to be reckoned with in rental cars.

Uber- yes its a major source of revenue for many a people from College students to part time workers looking to supplement their income.

Or just for those short trips where a few trips here and there support the stay and indulgences.

So Uberification makes Nomadic life possible and attractive.

Ford in an interview on CNBC - yes they are interested in Uber like market.

If they do succeed their share could be $200 if it has to be valued like Uber and the other Unicorns!!!

Maynard Webb's Turn!

Its not nice to bad mouth Marissa Mayer / Yahoo on the day of her Twins!

So its Maynard Webb's turn- Take responsibility for the mess and do something as the properties that Yahoo has is unique and no other replacement available.

How Low can Oil go?

Its not how low Oil can go- it is how long can it stay there?

Certainly not for very long given what it will take to replace the installed base with some other source for power and energy!

The major oil companies just started cutting their CAPEX- that means it has a long way before they will have to reduce and consolidate before hitting the bottom.

What can trigger the bottom-

- Obviously a Political power change in USA; And given the Republican field of dreams - it doesn't appear to have a very high probability. Then again its only Primary season.

- major disruption in supply: does not look that way either

- Gold faltering and going down precipitously: if ECB and Federal Reserve policy divergence is sustained for a few quarters

- Commodities as an asset class for ETF and Mutual Funds vanish: this could happen in a moment's notice!

Given the support circles of the Energy complex is crumbling under debt load and poor M&A - it should be getting close to bottom and opportunity should be enormous- as OIL is not going anywhere- it is who stay and who folds!

MensWearHouse and Jos A Bank!

May be paying the price for following the foot steps of Ron Johnson and JC Penney!

Sales drom leading to e Share price drop- the loud and clear message is Bring back the Pay for one get 3 back- It is not Honest Abe Pricing strategy that customers want- 

Once the Retail market has convinced and confused the consumers on what is a fair price for the product quality - you can never go back to Honest Pricing!

Black Turtle Neck- Bashing on Theranos CEO!

Not Nineteen anymore - Its 31 now!

No, No...its not the new Adele Sensation!
It is how old the Black Turtle Neck clad CEO Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos is.

Call it a Unicorn or what ever else that comes to your lip - it certainly is the new term used for PRE IPO Privately funded may be a bubble- you can come down on the company, management style, product , revenue model....or what ever else that comes to mind in trying to bring down the Unicorn- but slamming a CEO on her mannerism and her Black Turtle Neck!

From Wall Street Journal to Bloomberg and even the liberal New York Times ( yes it was James Stewart slamming on Ms Holmes on her Black Turtle Neck outfit on CNBC) in the name of Investigative Journalism - the highlight of every piece seems to be that and a wannabe Steve Jobs label.

Please!

Please!

Grow up guys - I am sure we can do better than that especially when you need to pay to read them!

Henry Blodget's Business Insider Goes Mainstream!

Fifteen years ago a youthful HB made history by being part of the exclusive club that pioneered and brought us the the one and only DOT COM ERA and eventually its demise. To be resurrecting vindicating those who predicting the magnitude of what was about to happen-

Fast Forward to the present SV and SA and every where lse in the Uber Economy.....though sidelined from the action...Henry Blodget worked and worked hard to bring a new kind of Media and Research to the market.

Business Insider in its form and factor- is unique and creative and very quick to adapt and change to the need of its audience.

And the present day platform - BI IGNITION brought to the main media some of the most powerful minds and leaders with their look ahead and plans.

some shakers and movers- and others still growing.

But BI - and HB have created something that is very readable and addictive- and very soon should be as influential as Mr Blodget was as an analyst.

Good Job Business Insider and Mr Blodget!

Harry's Razor Blade on Bloomingdale's Xmas List!!

All it takes is a funding a creating sales strategy.

Even a poor man's replacement of Gillete can find its way to the exclusive and expensive list of Bloomingdal'e and Nordstrom's christmas Gift.

Is it the fancy part of the blade or the flashy part of the VC funds that attracts?

Either way - it was interesting to see Harry's razor blade go from Yahoo Page to WSJ's Bloomingdale corner page!

Good Job HARRY! Shame on you Bloomingdale for making Harry's go upscale!

Growing Bond Prince- whines at Interest Rates?

Performance is the best measure - and Jeff Gundlach has done that!
To be a Prince and vie for the King's role.

To be a King one has to make rules and bull doze the players directionally!
And the road for that is still steep and winding and far far away!

So far no one has the capability or will to achieve what Bill Gross managed to do over Bernanke/Paulson/Greenspan and the DC power centers for over 10 years.

Till then Performance and whining will work!

Do we Need Old Economy for the Market to sustain its Rally?

- OPEC and the Oil complex faltering....
- Manufacturing and the Industrial powerhouses sliding what appears to be a long drawn out one
- Commodities in general are finally reaching their place in history!
- Financials making more money by not doing what their businesses are slated to do than by doing what they are supposed to do
- Retail and the consumer not seeing eye to eye....

Yet the Economy and the employment still growing - even if its not at a faster pace.

what gives in?

Yes now most of the analysts and media pundits have started the comparison to the second half of Clinton's second term.

Are we in a similar seventh innings stretch before the final run for the market?

May be - given the set up to the election year: this time could be different(!!!!) if The Clintons continue to enjoy the runway to WhiteHouse!

And DJIA could finally scale and pass 22,000 - The original target we set several years ago!

Du Chemical?? The CEO chair is not even Warm!

How long before you start implementing a new strategy?

Not long- atleast in the case of Du Pont.

Merge in and Spin out?

Looks like Mr Breen found the God Particle!

Du Pont and Dow Chemical will give birth to a new and beautiful particle! God Like which the old generation Ms Kullman had a tough time believing in!

who says one plus one has to be two?

Angela Merkel! YES, YES And YES! POY!

Person Of the Year!

Time crowns the hardworking ...Russian speaking - Globe trotting...well atleast EU trotting leader who walked the streets of Paris when Terrorists screamed at the ears of Democracy and Free speech- who knocked on the doors of Putin with old days East German Charms- yet held her grounds on everything from Economic melt down to moldy Greek Yogurt - Dr Merkel!

A well deserved recognition!

Congrats!

A Few Trillions here and a few Trillions there.....

From an unusual corner!

Connecticut and the Eastern corridors have long lost the attention of the Headline screamers and writers!

And its been a few years since GE and Jeff Immelt started their pilgrimage to Silicon Valley. No one noticed ...not even the usually polite and attentive East Coast Reporters and Editors.

And then the Silicon Valley vibe rubbed off on Mr Immelt and the corridors of GE- Yes he is not talking Industrial Engines or Aerospace engines...not even share buybacks or dividend increase.

And no not another spin out or merge ins.......

Its Technology ...

its not millions or Billions ....its Trillions and and not just one or two....but 8 and 15!

no...no...not in Wall Street Journal or NY Times!

Its in Business Insider....


WHAT???

WHERE??

WHEN???

Yes its on Business Insider- Bezos invested Henry Blodget's puppy!! Yes the same kid from the Internet Bubble fame Analyst!

And now it is attracting enough Views and flames it has started roaming teh traditional Media!

Talking Technology Bubbles - and Jeff says NO!

Copper, Iron, and the heavy commodities .....

If it falls any lower- it might stop hurting on impact!

Can Hollywood become a Multi-Trillion Dollar Market?

From Warner Bros to MGM!

Neflix and the streaming and un-bundling revolution is anchoring YouTube and FaceBook and others to support and pay for more and more of American quality entertainment.

From TV programs to mega budget Hollywood movies- the quality of production and just about everything else that goes in creating the content is several levels superior to everything that is out there outside USA.

With Streaming and affordability of access anywhere and anytime and on any device- and on all platforms is eventually going to make the consumers want more and more quality content.

Even advanced and well funded programs from BBC like Dr Who and TopGear - will millions of global followers- could learn a lot from Hollywood quality-

this expanded reach and affordability will make Hollywood class entertainment - a must to survive in this fast changing market.

Its not Netflix forcing un-bundling- after all Netflix is just a small piece int he overall theme of global entertainment - but Netflix is doing a major impact in how , what and when people are wanting to be entertained.

Is Netflix over valued? That depends on how big they are able to create this market and how much of that they are able to keep!

EU joins the QCOM Bashing band!

when it rains- it Qualcomm Pours!

its been that kind of a day, week, month, year...looks like for ever!

Apple plays tough and even goes solo and in-house!

China slaps and Chinese players just ignored to pay their bills! And Samsung's guardians - learned quickly from China-

And now EU! Poor Nokia - their management should have tried this first!

As Qualcomm keeps falling - the new CEO , if he is still new- must feel that he was havong a great time in his previous position!

Is this the end of QCOM?

Hardly- only an opportunity for those patient investors!

Who Decides What is News Worthy?

Looking specifically at the Financial Networks and News.

There are just 3 Major outlets in US covering real-time the Financial Markets. FBN, CNBC and Bloomberg TV.

Each one caters to a different demographics and Financial audiences. Without getting into who and what forms their viewership - its easy to say that the purpose is same- enhance the investment people knowledge about what is relevant for their investment assets or ideas.

there are thousands of listed companies and a few hundred that are not listed yet important.

but just a few have the ears and eyes of the reporters and producers of the networks and their guests.

looking at the lineups of their guests and the time hoggers it is not clear that the media has any idea what should be news worthy for the investors and their audiences.

An example: it is understandable we are in the middle of a major Technology revolution- yes it has changed from being a productivity play to re-inventing the wheel phase- and yes its great to see Bloomberg and CNBC anchoring out of San Francisco- Bloomberg even replays their live broadcast from Silicon Valley!

And one would think it would give the reporters and producers of these News network what is relevant and who is making hte most impact.

Yet the most glamorous CEO and the company that attracts these networks: Marisa Mayer and Yahoo! Not even yesterday's technology ...Please!

If the purpose is to add value to the investment community - the focus should be more on what is playing a role in the economy and what is changing and fast moving.

If financial media - which is actually affecting the most important thing that influences one's lifestyle- imagine where the other news are!

Is Amazon the most powerful Internet Company?

It could be debatable based on who you ask and what metrics you use.

everyone can argue about its PRIME membership and its ability to monetize it.
one thing that is magical about Amazon is - every person other than those very occasional visitors-
is already logged in or does mind being tracked by Amazon.

Now even Google and Apple does not have that power or ability to do.

And anything they buy from the site is controlled by Amazon - from what they search, see and compare!

This could be even bigger than FaceBook - as FB is still very far from direct buying power of consumers.

Post Zero ERA!

Finally this Christmas Santa will fulfill the dreams of many hard working savers and retires!

Janet Yellen finally managed to convince everyone that upping the rate from zero is appropriate and good for everyone!

With cash rich companies loaded with debt- from IBM to Apple to every company that has gazillion dollars stashed away in overseas account- this might be a notice!

Maybe not this year or next or even a few more after that....but when the debt comes for redemption they better hope the cash flow is there to either service the new dynamics or have managed to convince Washington to better the tax penalty for he cash stashed abroad!

Inversions, Charities, tax Avoidance.....call what you may?

Bill Gates started this. Moving all his wealth to charitable Organization. Mangaged to convince Warren Buffet to pass his under Bill Gates Umbrella!

And a few more joined independently.

And Mr Z and Facebook hit the media buzz recently with Zuckerberg moving 99% of his FB shares to a charitable LLC.

There was a deviation from what Gates and Buffet did.......Three letter variation.....From
.ORG to .LLC ??

There were a few rumblings from control to intention to tax evasion!

The smart and the rich have started moving their taxable wealth to a Phantom entity under the disguise of Charity and still enjoy the benefits of owning and controlling the wealth without paying any taxes.

A form of inversion? Something like What Valeant has done and what DJIA component Pfizer is planning to do.

In this noise what is missing is- the ability to sell stocks in their company without crashing hte value of the share and perception if the company in the market.

Bill Gates- very soon will own less than 1%- Warren Buffer has started moving his ownership on an annual basis out of Berkshire!!

And with Zuckerberg talking about moving 99% to an LLC- that will be like what happened to GoPRO founder's shares- who moved more than a Billion Dollars worth of shares immediately after IPO and now the company has lost glamor and wealth in the market with the share fall like a rock!

If Mr Z does manage to shift his wealth to a different entity - that will be the biggest rug moved from under the feet of Shareholders without blinking an eye!

Innovators and alpha types have the ability to outsmart anything and everything at will!

Hopefully this is only a misdirected conspiracy theory which will prove to be just that and not more than a fictional narration!

Whole Foods: Not so Whole anymore?

Sooner or later all great things must come to good or average?

Lighting, Placements, Services, Location and Pricing!

It appears that the early expansion - demographics of the cities and neighborhoods could easily digest the Whole Foods Mantra. As expansion started moving into Upper Middle class and Middle class neighborhood- Services and Pricing started hurting the traffic.

A couple of minor things: Food Court - local businesses and eateries: good concept- unfortunately the services and pricing doesn't seem to match the Whole Food concept. Either they are expanding into areas like Silicon Valley where labor market is already tight or juts that Whole Foods Market is not taking the time and effort to train the third party suppliers to live upto the expectation of a high priced establishment.

To be a Nordstrom like in the Food Market- you not only have the look and feel - but also the qualit and service that goes with it.

Granted a few experiences in a few shops in Silicon Valley is not a theory-but looking at the numbers and the growth...it appears this is more than an exception.

Lowering the size nad cost to compete locally in a new umbrella could provide some cushion - but unless they revamp their services and training model in existing stores- this could be a long leg to shave!

Amazon Extending its reach into Transportation-

Buying thousands of Truck Trailers!

And with a gazillion drones and mail Boxes every where it has inserted itself somewhere between its conveyor belts and the drop off location. Whose segment will be carved for Amazon?

FedEx? UPS? USPS?

building this amazing maze of mail boxes in every possible location - Amazon is going where no one has gone before...ability to move anything from anywhere to anywhere. Point to Point movement.

It certainly is not a happy time for FedEx or UPS or DHL even as their rate hiking keeps happening to offset the Amazon business- From $8 for an overnight package it has come all the way to $40 plus for most of the location...and it is slated to go up come January! If FedEx keeps trying this price hike to offset more demanding customers and dump it on the lazy to shop around and mail customers.....there could be a change in management soon....as sooner or later everyone will turn to white truck deliveries even if they don't have a fleet of Drones!

Draghi! Draghi! Dragh! - Part Deux!

Ho, Ho, Ho!

Santa finally appeared in the form of Draghi! Be it a bit early!

What Yellen could not do on two tries- Draghi did manage to do it on TWO TRIES!

And the market finally felt it is on a Bull Run!

Even the bad omen Oil Complex did not do that bad given the scenario.

Global Warming and the IT Corridor! CHENNAI!

The biggest headlines coming out of Paris these days are related to Global Warming! The heart grabber is 2 Degrees and Bangladesh will be submerged in water.

$100 Billion to barter for green revolution and keeping Bangladesh!
The developing world does not want to trust the promises for Green!

What is interesting is the most important City in the IT Globalization/Outsourcing World that we have come to accept in live in the corporate world - is under water! Mostly Nature and partly poor public policies and political environment - the whole city and a handful of neighboring cities are paralyzed and survival is the operative. From local authorities to Central Government agencies are scrambling to keep Chennai afloat till the sky clears for Sun.

This is the Katrina Time for the local authorities.

No power. No Cell. No Net - All people are desperate for is either a life boat or something to float to a dry place.

It appears most of the IT companies have doubled up and moved critical staff to other parts of the country!

Yet the news media in the Western world has gone radio silent!

Is it news worthy? Does it call for a humanitarian deed? Atleast business emergency - when most of the F500 companies have their IT  and support centers in this city of India.

While the world is pushing for Global Warming and a helping hand to the developing world- this is a significant development that is flaring up in Chennai and the Western News Media - barring BBC .....has missed the boat.

Can OPEC rescue the OIL and the commodities complex?

Is it the supply or the demand? Or just that speculators are consumed in Netflix streaming and staying put? With the possibility of election being a non event and the Clintons polishing their manners- does it really matter that OPEC is debating the direction?

who will decide the bottom of the oil and the commodities- almost anything that falls and hurts your feet seem to be going down and  doesn't seem to have an interest in heading the other direction.

With RNC not even debating the possibility of giving a run at the election - are the Energy Complex and the commodities preparing for a long hibernation?

Draghi! Draghi! Draghi!

Euro Strengthens and Dollar Falters!

Global Market and Europe falls.

Cameron Joins the Rest in bombing parade!

Who should get the credit for these? Certainly Draghi comes to the rescue- well almost!

Can Europe and China not join the Japanese Dance? Does Draghi have what it takes make it happen?

atleast for now nobody seems to care about the EU split or the Chinese war with Japan- with the policy divergence across the seven seas- and the hedge funds confused with the pending elections and uncertainty the markets around the world seem to Ho Hum the Ho Ho Ho season!

Gold: The last Man standing!

Every commodity from Copper to Coffee are succumbing to gravity!

And so are the companies and countries that are associated with them.

Most of the companies that have relied on debt to run and expand are finding their equity getting almost wiped out.

Seems like a replay of the Clinton Era...when you look at oil its waiting for the last straw- may be this Friday will pave the way for it too?

If Oil breaks below $30 and the interest rate edge higher at the next FOMC meeting- if Gold holds where it is hanging around....it will be a great candidate to Short!

If the so called FANG continue their movement at current pace.....and Clinton's popularity scale new highs be summer- we could see a couple of more players joining the Exclusive clubs like Priceline in the $1000 mark ....and may scale new wealth creation bubble. And Trillion Dollars at marcap may not be a eye popping headliner!

And Gold should touch $500!

Who Pays the Bill?

Bloomberg started it a few years back- Sugar and Calories!

Cigarettes and its pain: both during from paying and later by way of possible drug maintained lifestyle and a less active one is always felt by the person indulging it. The benefits: Profit and Tax collection is enjoyed by the manufacturer and the City, State and Federal government. Over a period of time the number started declining.

With Sugar, salt and Calories - the health effect is felt over a long period: decades in most cases.With advancement in medicine- most of the common effects are easily taken care of by maintenance drugs: Blood Pressure medicines , Diabetes medicine and the likes. As one ages more and more complicated medical needs are easily available. Most of the support needed are taken care of by the insurance system....both private and government. So the seriousness is never felt on a day to day basis by the individuals. As most of the cases are felt at a later stage in life- the medical expenses squarely falls in the shoulders of the government! So when Bloomberg started this initiative to make restaurants display the calories next to the item- it was shocking....atleast to the owners and business managers. As the calories in some of the items were more than the daily recommended amount!

When Calories were displayed- initial shock brought attention to what people ate.....and sooner the prints became deceptive and smaller at the restaurants! However people if not everyone atleast  an increasing number of people have started paying attention to intake of calories.

Supersizing initiative was successfully killed by the industry.

But now following in the same foot steps- NY is introducing a similar display law that will force display the amount in the food item. If this one succeeds as the Calories one and spreads though out the country- it will not only bring down the cost of health care nationally but will also improve the health and lifestyle quality for everyone. With Oprah in Weight Watchers beneficiary...maybe she can endorse such a movement!

Gilead and the Sovaldi Saga!

Pricing and Gouging! In a managed and controlled industry - the pricing power is with someone who has the strongest relationships!

$1000 a pill - has hit the cord of many - from politicians to insurance players!

The consumer who uses them - to treat for the most part is silent! The responsibility to service the need of the pill rests else where- From Government agencies to insurance companies and everyone in between!

With Sovaldi hogging the issues of the healthcare industry- Valeant and Turing Pharma became the eye of the storm with media and speculators having a field day!

Who should take ownership? Beneficiary or the one responsible for the financial commitments!

Another hearing and another media field day- can we resolve this piece meal?

Are there answers that can address the systemic problems?

Maybe- but we are not there yet!

Amazon and the Drone Saga!

Looks like its that time of time year! Another gadget from Amazon - a sequel this time!

The good thing to waste talents and money - atleast put Top Gear celebrity Jeremey Clarkson to work!

watching the video getting so much of media attention - both prints and tubes- I was wondering why Amazon is getting the coverage for Drone?

there are so many manufacturer making these from toy versions to combat versions...shouldn't they be hogging the minds of the reporters and not the silly video from J Clarkson and Amazon?

WSJ and Barrons Under Murdoch!

After following the news daily on WSJ and Barrons for ..who knows how long....with the digital age stuck to the online versions for several years now.

Barrons has undergone a massive shift in what it does- Almost every article is predictive or critical article. Very targeted assessment that can be followed and measured! Very few articles that do not either recommend buying or selling! More of a stock pickers magazine!

With Wall Street Journal- Online Home page mainly covers Political and Policy specific news with a few breaking corporate news! Not really worth looking at it every few minutes.

suddenly decided to start buying the print version- there was a pleasant surprise- a whole lot different than I was used to pre- Murdoch days!

From week days to Week-end editions a lot of articles that are interesting to read. Looks more like a toned down version of Financial Times - but for the American Demographics.

Its been a few weeks and I am still reading cover to cover on the weekender!

Is it Wall Street Worthy to make decisions? Only time will tell-

but it certainly is worth the weight- don't know if the bloated pricing is worth the reading!

Black Monday?

From Black Thanks Giving to Semi Cyber Friday to Black Monday?

Shops and Webs are enticing Thanks Giving Thursday to beat the retail madness. Mr Lundgren on everyone watching the Macy's Parade and everything else Tube Teli or otherwise - still managed to shop - as even Target hit the circuits with their massive rebates on iEverything!

With the Monday looming - Thursday being the teaser day to anticipate what to check out on Friday.....and Finally look for Monday to fill in the shopping cart? As both the retailers and consumers pushing for the ultimate Monday?

Eventually Friday could move to Monday making it the Black Cyber Monday??

Is QCOM undervalued?

Living in a world where we sell over a billion mobile phones a year and we are look down on one company which has been the pioneer for this explosive growth!

It will be a huge mistake to side line the brains and technology of Qualcomm- especially everything commerce , communication and computing is moving to mobile at an accelerated pace.

If the stock continues to under perform - the management can do several things to prop up....including break up of the entity!

At current vale the stck could easily double in 24 months!

Warren Buffet: IBM, WalMart, American Express,Coke, Etc

It appears that Mr Buffet is losing his touch! Leaving it to the nay Sayers and the media to jump the gun quickly!

2016 Seems to be a bad turn for Mr Buffets portfolio- even trailing the indexes for only the second time ever!

Then again if we actually pay attention to Mr Buffet's criteria for Portfolio selection - as he repeatedly says - he likes his pick to go down so that he can buy some more!

The magic to his build up is Dividend and visibility to the cash flow for years at a time! Looking at all these stocks that have fallen off the cliff- all of them continue to keep paying heavy dividends and have a whole lot of room to continue for the foreseeable future- even have plenty of headroom to increase year after year.

So if its good for Mr Buffet for these stocks to go down - creating an opportunity...it is good for investors who have seen Mr Buffet being opportunistic time and time again for over 3 decades!

So what are you waiting for Load them up - IBM, WMT, KO, AXP!

Is Cloud bringing back High Margins?

From Microsoft to Adobe- as people embrace cloud as the only way to buy their products- and as customers both consumers and enterprises embrace devices with DVDs or CDs absent - a one time cost to buy is being slowly replaced by recurring payment!

People are used to video games and Netflix charging a monthly fee- now MS Office, Adobe and likes are slowly becoming a stable in the payment stack every month!

In the next few years- may be int he next up cycle- there may not be an option to buy anything digital paying one time- giving way to a profitable period for anything and everything software and services....and may be eventually even the hardware might reach that stage one day!

Age of YouTube: Gangnam Style - PSY, Ed Sheran and Now Adele

PSY - stormed the world with Gangnam Style! Very few understood the force behind the success! A sales and marketing effort using new media anchoring behind YouTube Power!

And then cam Ed Sheran - a possible One Hit wonder! Right story and background- rags to Wembley Phenom! Careful positioning and marketing - a mesmerizing and sexy video again anchoring behind YouTube!

And Now breaking all records - a good but not so great song shattering all records! 25! A carefully choreographed video with the right colors mixed in the romantic tangle- Again anchoring behind YouTube! 400 Million views ensuring an instant success and  with a name like Adele - became a blockbuster!

One thing that is emerging in the common theme is Democratizing the King Maker process.....no more Ed Sullivan needed to bubble to the top!

A managed and well crafted process distributed globally and championed with various social media enabling technologies and platforms - anchoring behind YouTube!

looking at all these one might wonder if YouTube is a bigger threat to cordcutting than NetFlix and Prime!

Nordstrom : Fading Brands and Pricing!

Once a year sale!

Cannot find anywhere else brands!

Impeccable behavior and excellent customer service!

And then that is history!

Handbags and Shoes- A staple at Nordstrom where the customers and margins kept flowing! Its not the fashionista but it is Nordstrom!

The other day walking inside a local Nordstrom- see quite a few brands in disarray and displayed at full price- Coach, Kate Spade, Michael Kors and Burberrys....just a few days to Thanksgiving - all these brands and the retails that anchor them from Macys to Bloomigdales and more are desperate to discount and clear the inventory! And yet Nordstrom does not budge!

in the past Nordstrom has been quick to correct itself with renewed  products to keep those customers happy- by being exclusive! it has been two  quarters and hopefully they will change soon!

If not - in this age of social media - it will be difficult to retain the customer base!

Rupert Murdoch: A Change of Heart?

It has happened in the past! From British Election to Obama.

In the case of British Election even a scandal broke out way after - on how a private visit by Mr Tony Blair to Mr Murdoch changed the fortune!

Looking at Fox trying hard to decide on who to choose within the Republican candidates - one thing is clear - they certainly don't want Mr Trump at the pole. From out right embarrassment to nudging in the back - they are hard on Mr Trump. Now even Hillary seems to be getting only soft lobs-

And seeing a softening from the Koch Brothers and coming out explicitly showing their openness to not so conservative ideas?

Is there a change in the air? Change of heart in trying to be more practical and jockeying for a position....making it easier for Clintons to roam the roads of Politics at will ....once again?

Seagate : Unusually Silent in this Merger Cycle!

with so much of noise and debt load going around in the old Technology world from SanDisk to Dell - the normally aggressive Seagate is not making a move! In the past cycles Seagate acted almost at the bottom of the cycle- does that mean we have more room to go or its just that every one is getting smarter?

Is WalMart looking the wrong side?

Its not the Website that is different with Amazon!

It is the Logistics and Transportation! inventory Management! Analytics! Dynamic Pricing and discounting!

Send from Point A to Point B! Not from a buyers perspective....but from a sellers perspective!

By aping Amazon in website and ignoring foot traffic based demographics WalMart does not lose to Amazon but just loses to some neighborhood shops!

Talking to a Food Court Franchise at a WalMart - it was interesting to note that their patrons spend an equal amount at the food court Super Sizing everything - as they do at the retail trip!

Hope WalMart ignores Amazon and starts focusing on its core clientele

Having said all these.....WalMart is a good buy at this price!

.

Time to trim Amazon?

At 3 Times projected sales- for a retail? Cloud? Logistics? Platform? Media? 4 PL? Market Place?

In a possible Bubble which is still in its Seventh Inning Stretch?

And Now that Bezos is on the wrong side of Elon Musk??

May be one can do what Bill Ackman did to spike his stake at VRX / Valeant to 9.9% with just a little over 5% of the capital needed?

That might be the prudent one to do!

Influence the Media Plays!

E-Coli!

Chipotle - run and re-run! Hog the TVs with the news and pasting the faces of Wall street analysts downgrading CMG on this news.  down 10-15%

Costco - a small insert! No replays or re-runs nothing! Stock?? What stock?

Well done Media! Creating sensation out of a news is still in the hands of the media!

Microsoft Color and Amazon name play???

Alphabet- Google ....What's in a name?

what does Google offer? Search? entertainment? Maps and Location based services? Local delivery? Mortgage? Cars? Life ? Cloud? Broadband? ....everything under the earth? From A to Z as in Alphabet?

Well that's what Amazon Claims! Makes sense on the name change!

Why the color play like Microsoft? When you walk into Microsoft Campus the colors are every where from walls to seasonal trees and leaves!

I guess now we know that Google is going after Amazon and Microsoft! what else is hiding and going to surface soon?

HP or HPE? OOPS , She did it Again!

When they talk lack of talent in Silicon Valley - they should not talk about programmers- they should talk Management!

Unlike old Economy companies - the new Economy Enterprises have a tendency to grow on its own - till it stops! And then the management - both the board and the Leadership team have a way to stick to styles that lead them in destructive paths! High profile stories like IBM and Yahoo have hogged the media and prints- extending their life. And then there are more than a dozen in Valley that are imploding under the radar.

HP and HPE - its a shame that they couldn't even think of better names while splitting! Looking at it cant even tell which sells what! If you are doubting - try buying a PC on the web!

Ms Whitman seems to have fallen in that trap and taking the highway to destruction. 

Maybe IBM and Dell could leverage this mess!

Chipotle and the Mexican Binge!

E-Coli is scary but its difficult to stay without the calorie loaded "almost all you can load" of whatchmacall that bowl!

People may scream and analysts and pundits might call Chipotle as unhealthy as it is overloading their food with calories- but what is missed in the analysis is - Chipotle does not put a gun to the head to load up the bowl- they are just giving the option to portion control at will!

So any downward pressure is only an opportunity!

How to Stop Inversions-

Maybe a couple of tweaks? Like

- Management has to become residents of country where HQ is located and
- Drug pricing will be based on global pricing not on USA

Comcast and Xfinity: Rising Power in Technology?

From a not heard so much regional cable provider to heard quite a lot National Powerhouse!

But what is seldom missed in the noise is what Comcast has been silently building under the radar- A mega Technology Footprint addressing things like Mobility, Localization and segmentation of Ads, Broadband Net, Communication - and most of all a software footprint at the last mile. Can Xfinity1 and its OS take over the Living room control? Based on the fast penetration of Comcast footprint at the cable box, Wireless Router and the TV/DVR  Foot print , quite a lot of which  Apple , Alphabet and Amazon are still struggling and would love to get a hand on- it appears Wall Street is missing the Comcast Juggernaut and its powerful penetration which is well on its way of dominance!

Alphabet Soup!

With Wall Street Brain shaping Alphabet - wall street loves the new Google!
Is this sustainable? Of course it is - as long as the market continues to grind higher.

Is 400 Million views on MTV same as YouTube? or Facebook? Not from monetization and perception point of view. What is measurable and quantifiable? If we are in the Seventh Inning of the technology BURST ( the new terminology these days for Bubble) then we need to revisit this topic at the bottom of the ninth!

Nike Just Did it?

Nike's new shoes - made with knit technology and a different platform for its sole and heel- in the name of newness has commanded very high cost and low time to market with easy to implement custom design. With a reduced labor and outsourced costs - margins can sky rocket...which is evident in the past several quarter.

In addition to this new technology and price premium- the nacent technology is actually reducing the life of the shoes- as the wear and tear makes it useless in just a few months for running and workouts/walking styles- the traditional old models typically lasts a few years with change happening slowly! With these new models an individual buys more - both from quick wear and tear and also easy to modify and build upper layers- making a fashion statement at the bottom line! Not to mention the high cost Lulu lemon killers hogging the bottoms of almost everyone.

If the consumers continue to overlook these - the top line and bottom line at Nike will keep pushing high

The other day I saw a gentleman wearing what looked like a branded pants, shirts, a Rolex walking in the park - with a pair of Nike! May be the only product which crosses barriers of wealth!

Is IBM on the Mend?

Maybe an influential force is behind the H1 Visa initiative that is picking up steam! If this clears and is implemented IBM will be the major beneficiary. IBM with more than 150k programmers in India - even though it should be in the same boat as its competitors from India and be disadvantaged in moving its low cost work force to USA- it will  actually benefit as the windfall will help move all those businesses from Indian based IT shops to IBM. The wording in the implementation of the policies will exclude IBM and other American companies.

Microsoft back in its old turf....Thanks to Cloud!

There was a time when you end up buying Microsoft Products whether ou needed them or not....thanks to creative pricing and bundling with PCs and Laptops!

Then as the life of PCs and the likes extended to several years....we were able to get away with older versions of Word, Excel, etc without having to dole out during every upgrade cycle. Microsoft started slipping in growth.

And then came the magic of cloud. Several years of tinkering and now they are back in the game of charging and over charging whether one needs them or not. As an example look at OFFICE on cloud. Before cloud you can buy a copy for a few installs for $100 and don't have to worry about paying....unless you really need the upgrade. Now with cloud you pay $100 every years....no options!

And that is just the beginning...Imagine the same thing happening with database? at various levels of implementation from individual versions to enterprise versions......that could be more than a chump change....and with Windows OS also going cloud update with no individual control......????

Given the lack of awareness on the implication of the cost of ownership with no competitive alternate to the Windows ecosystem.....Microsoft could be back in the growth cycle with or without PC growth accelerating.....mobile or no mobile!

Bursting The Seams: Bubble 2,7

The Media and pundits have been screaming about the rally as a Mega Bubble - Are we in one? As we all know its OK to be in a bubble as long as we are out before it bursts.

the question is how do we know we are about to...???

we have our own markers and when we start to get comfortable with a few of the markers ....we know its time to change the directional bet or atleast take some decent protection.

01: FB at $250, AMZN $1000, GOOGL $1200

02: Weak Republican Establishment candidate steals the Presidency

03: Fortune 10 overcrowded with Techies: 8 or more with Exxon sliding down

04: Oxford Dictionary introduces BURST, FANG, Uberisaztion and similar words as they go mainstream

05: Business Insider, Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha - IPO bound

06: Oil at $10

07: Bill Gates break into F10 with net worth over $300B

08: Alphabet starts IPOs for consonants and vowels.....A,B,C...G...etc!

09: Netflix merges with Comcast or Time Warner

10: Warren Buffet Retires

What is Amazon?

Is it a Walmart Killer?

An ecommerce juggernaut?

A Netflix wanna be?

Also ran Apple?Google....and Microsoft, Oracle...and on and on and on.....

here is a new twist and maybe the fact!

A Frictionless Logistics and Transportation Enterprise which knows hoe to optimize sentiment, capital and assets deployed!

A less publicized list of facts:

- From UPS/FedEx delivery mechanism AMZN has gone from Drone to USPS to white label carriers to Social WorkForce! ( FDX and UPS are missing estimates and shrinking because of these actions; USPS might even be profitable soon!!)

- Creating Lucias and Malkins(names of MailBox locations)  and hundreds and thousands  of Amazon Mail boxes from Seven 11s to grocery shops

- Amazon Robots and drones inside P&G inventory locations picking and shipping directly

- Amazon makes more money from third party sale than from its own sale: An eBay inside only that the inventory and processing is within Planet Amazon leaving less and less control to seller ....thus becoming the super distributor!

- Using Big Data differently than what most retails and entities do.....has the capability (and uses)to increase prices on products based on end user vulnerability (unlike most retailers who using patterns give special discounts to attract and retain customers)

- with anonymity established in most transactions: the network can be used for trafficking products not normally allowed legally


And now if you still think Amazon is a AWS play or a Wal-Mart killer or a threat to MSFT or ORCL or GOOGL or AAPL...think again!

TOP10 TRUMP Presidential Agenda

10- Presidential Apprentice: You're Impeached!
09- World Beauty Pageant: First Ladies Edition
08- Licenses Limited Edition Golden Toupees to Foreign Presidents
07- Moves WH to Central Park, NY
06- Air Force One renamed Trump Air
05- Relaunches Taj Mahal Casino as Trump Mahal in DC
04- Buys FOX and changes it to Trump's FOXY Channel (Kelly joins MSNBC)
03- The Great Walls of Trump Phase II around Dem States
02- Tries Wiping out US Debt by filing for Bankruptcy
01- White House Renamed Trump's House

Mr Zuckerberg and Taj Mahal!

Not so many weeks back - Mr Modi, Indian Prime Minister,  embraced Mr Z in Silicon Valley!
Mr Z stunned everyone by revealing that upon Steve Job's recommendation he visited a temple in India to get clarity before FaceBook became what it is today!

And then came the picture of him looking at TajMahal - posted by Mr Z in his FB page!

I was stunned at reading the news and seeing the Photo at WSJ! My immediate reactions aside ...I was impressed with the photo for several reasons...before I rattle off those take a look at the photo (Courtesy Wall Street Journal) just see what comes to your mind.....

the reasons being

- how familiar we have become with Mr Z's profile that we can recognize him even in this pose!
- an appreciation from Mr Z and the camera person : looking at the picture it is clear the intention is to have attention to Taj Mahal and not at anything else.....and with Mr Z looking at it makes this a dynamic picture with the picture posing many questions and imagination as to the intention/purpose etc ....especially being posted on the Most powerful site on earth today!

So immediately spammed it by sending it to a few .....and the answers that I got amazed me .....as what everyone saw was not the same......making  me wonder if the mode of communication that we are headed to leaves a lot to imagination and creates a new dynamics in the communication industry!

some of the responses are:

- yes saw this as it was plastered on all news outlets as his visit is the HOT topic
- of course India is the largest market for FB and Mr Z realizes what touches his customers more
- Posting it on FB makes more people visiting FB
- with next door China still evasive for Mr Z.....this is one way to make China blink
- its so cool that Mr Z wanted people to see Taj Mahal and not him...

and I was floored how different the reaction could be for an ordinary photo with extra-ordinary subjects and an emerging medium!

IBM - Ready to learn and Innovate ?

Several years ago with Ms Rometti inheriting IBM from Palmisano - a handful of people knew the day will come when IBM will have to pay for Mr Palmisano's profit churning machine! As what he did was to go generic on their skills keeping pace with the Indian based emerging SIs  - like the Tatas, Infosys, Cognizants and the likes who were hiring 20,000 to 30,000 freshers a year and dumping them at ridiculous rates. Mr Palmisano decided to wave the magic wand- replace the high cost IBMers with low cost programmers and techies from India - like their competitors. With Blue Stripes ont eh contract papers nad badges- he felt that customers will pay the price premium. And the margins will keep coming for years to come. That it did and the share holders were happy as the profit more than tripled during this head turning transitions as IBM actually became jokingly  Indian Bodies & Machines at the Indian college campuses - with over 50% of IBM employees based in India.

Profit and dividends kept increasing year after that it even attracted Mr Buffet- a person who refused to invest in Technology till then!

And then came Ms Rometti- who hopefully will realize that IBM is not her father's IBM anymore - with the mass layoffs of talents and skills it does not have the capability anymore to have the bleeding edge! ( which made the CXO's keeping coming to Big Blue for innovation and Technology!)

Can they change and start innovating anymore? With so much of Installed base and cash - yes they can.....only if they understand that low cost labor is good for margins....but only for a while as it does not breed innovation!

The Oprah Effect!

Watching your weight is not the same as watching your wallet!

Weight Watchers stock at this rate will bring in more than your waist could handle...with Oprah's 10% stake and two years commitment- it might just be the beginning if one looks at the fortune her endorsement has brought- From Dr Phil to Mr Obama to a less known Billionaire - Spanx founder Blakely....whose product was so good Ms Winfrey proudly went on national TV that she gave up on panties and only wore Spanx!

The catch this time is......would Oprah be brave enough to report on her progress from adopting the WeightWatchers weight reducing program? Does she need to in the first place?? Given the two year lock in period I am sure the Oprah effect will last a while!

Amazon goes after Reviewers!

Its funny that Amazin and Jeff Bezos would do this...given the fact... the early years of Amazon it was reported that all book reviews were done by Amazon shipping/receiving and other employees of Amazon without ever reading them! Oh well ......may be they realized that it is wrong ...so they just want others to not make the same mistake??? And yes.....they now have a gazillion dollars!

while talking about Amazon - now that they have started using USPS , OnTrack and other cheap means of shipment (tapping into Uber like share economy)....you not only miss your shipments but its so strange to see utterly unorganized and strange people loitering around neighborhoods...digging up cluttered truck load of packets....! Not to mention FDX and UPS to compensate for lost revenue are jacking up the already ballooned rates of theirs!

The good news is.....USPS might finally break even in a couple of years!

Bringing PowerPoint and Spreadsheet to Old News!

How do you make an old news or a poorly received news flaming hot and attractive?

Add the usual management style- Ask Business Insider's Henry Blodget!

Take a third party news and dont just sugar coat them but make it more glamorous and outright sexy!

- Bring in a Bold and Loud Headline ( relevancy is not necessary)

- pick a cheap but eye catching picture for the headline ( again no relevance to  news or headline)

- then the content based on how much time the copy and paste reported of BI has - make a powerpoint with lot of colorful graphs or just reduce the content and give a link to the original author!

If it does not work = come back after 2 hours and change the picture or the headline....repeat this exercise till you have milked the ad engine!

if You are wondering how this works? Well HB's bubble wrapped Bezo's invested in BI only to see his investment zoom in just a few months when it was sold at a TheStreet.com type of bubblitious price!

Alphabet Soup??

Alphabet - The post Eric Schmidt Google is slowly dying and we don't know yet! Ability of Eric Schmidt  to convert a search engine to an Internet Juggernaut is less appreciated by the media and the analysts...and the effect of it is felt in the current faltering of management style and may not be felt for several years!

Exiting Silently....while EU and Japan wake-up!

Draghi & Abe Pave The way for Ben's exit! - 04 July 2013

A few years and a few trillion dollars ago Uncle Ben was alone and lonely. Relentless pursuit led to a consistent strength in his strategy! He even sported a grin along with possibly a belt loosening weight!

And then came the beginning...yes beginning of the end! And there was no reason to think it will be an easy one!

With an Ex Goldman steering EU - and the newly elected Japanese Government giving Paulson's Bazooka to Abe.....well well the rainbow came just in time for the exiting Ben!

With Draghi and Abe following the footsteps of Ben - just a few years late- is all Ben was looking for!

The exit window is wide open for the Federal Reserve with or without Ben - as even the waging tails of PIMCO has lost its glory after uncle Ben demoted  them to the back bench while putting his magical feather on a Black Rock!

And there they go again...

Yes.

Germany's PIMCO is not the one to waste any opportunity!

Thanks to Big Ben's Big statement end of May about exit strategy- and quick to the draw was not just Mr Gross- but this time he was ably accompanied by his buddies - the Maestro Greenspan himself along with El Erian and a few other of their not so recognizable individuals.

Over 20 days and the 10 year jumping well over 2 percent- and they are still at it.

From low end Business Insider to Bloomberg-

Yes they did succeed for over a decade leading up to the BlackRock ascent - can they do this again?

IMAO - I doubt it- unless Ben is ousted and replaced by someone other than Mr Summers and Blackrock decide to skip the world of an opportunity to dominate the multi trillion dollar market.

NY London Tokyo Hong Kong....

And Silicon Valley!

What Frankfurt and Paris couldn't

What Detroit and Chicago didn't

What Beijing and Dubai can't

Yes it is Silicon Valley-

It is the confluence of exploding innovation - not just in Technology but in

Communication - beyond simply Telcos

Energy

Distribution

Auto

Biotech

and not to mention an already dominant Technology Industry from Semiconductor to net apps! Or the future version of financial markets & capital market.

Move Over PIMCO..

There is a Black Rock in the way!

And finally Germany's PIMCO and Bill Gross are losing their power grip on the US Policy Makers and the federal Reserve!

Hats off to a handful of Policy Makers in Washington and Mr. Bernanke US has escaped from the black mailing grips of Germany's PIMCO!

Black Rock and Mr Fink have become the new king on the mound with Red White and Blue painted  all over their strategies - not just in the Fixed Income market but also in the equity market as well!

PIMCO's Mr Gross and its flagship fund are trailing again this year to their peers - flip flop flip flop....on the strategy doesn't work after losing the crown and the ability to bull doze the policy makers - to Black Rock!

Gates to Omaha!

Reasons why Bill Gates should and will be the next Oracle of Omaha!

- Warren Buffet has entrusted his hard earned wealth to Bill Gates

- Buffet's son already has the Chairman role

- the only other person in recent memory who has equalled or surpassed Warren Buffet in Wealth creation

- Like Buffet , Gates doesn't fade with market preasures

- like Buffet Mr Gates is humble yet professionally arrogant

- As Microsoft moves from emerging/growth story to staple food like all other Berkshire Investments...it is only natural to make Gates part of the Berkshire Story!

- They are comfortable in each others prrsence and have mutual admiration and respect!

- Like Buffet -Gates is the only other entrepreuner who loves to make his peoplerich and independent!

- And Buffet is looking for someone to rule Omaha for the next several decades and not manage for a few years!

And the time is ripe for Apple!

Ready for Some Apple?

Yes...and it is time to own Apple....even if it is not for a glamourous reason!

What was then? from July 2012

Post: Is Apple headed to $380?
Link: http://coldfriction.blogspot.com/2012/07/is-apple-headed-to-380.html

What is Now?

Google will disappoint

bad is not that bad anymore - from product upgrades to management

Hedge funds will spread their risk as Apple goes Radio silence embracing Mr Jobs style once again

Tech Bubble 2.5 will support an expanded multiple

At less than 2 times revenue ( assumption for $380 target was based on a 30% drop in revenue before levelling off) it is worth owning

A boat load of cash will be coming home as buybacks and dividends for a very long time

New Enterprise Applications for iPad are finally showing up in VC radars

HP - A Goldman Opportunity!!

The Goldman Curse? Or is it a Blessing?

It was Apple that stole the limelight...but HPQ took the brunt of selling. Market - tired of repeated bad reports from analysts after stock has lost some $250 billion in marcap....ignored the Goldman report on Apple. At one point it was even up nicely. However HPQ took it hard...as the selling continued till the close. Any further weakness should be a buying opportunity for the following reasons.

-Ms Whitman has finally stashed away enough in provisions for bad actions from the past....should be ableto start recovering some as time progresses

-Having slashed expectations to such a low level - currently less than $3.50 And $3.60 for FY2013 and 2014- HPQ should easily beat expectations for the next 6-7 quarters

-EDSintegration pay off should start later part of 2013 as their strength in Government and Healthcare should help the topline

- Dell confusion should help HP

- at modest 8 times $4 should easily take HPQ past $32

- Oracle's hardware blunder to help HP

- Ms Whitman has finally capitalised on KPCB connect and found a friend in Morgan Stanley

Credits, Cars & Rockets: Silicon valley Style!

Disruptions in a life time come in many forms- some we notice a bit late , some we fail to participate and others we just let it slip by.

And we always praise, admire and reward the person or corporations that see through the adoption of disruptive innovations.

Very rarely do we see several disruptions running parallel at the same time and steered by the same individual.

We might be lucky to be participating in one and possibly watching the other two - all from the same mind and soul!

In recent months Elon Musk and his offerings were in the cross hairs of many - from NASA to NY Times! And I was lucky enough to closely watch both of them. Everyone knows NASA's shutting of the space shuttle....only a interested few have paid attention to Space X and its recent successful trip to the Space Station. As I was closely watching some of the schools sending their students' Microgravity experiments to ISS on Space X's Dragon 2.0  - it really was mesmerising to see the tenacity with which Mr Elon Musk and his team championed the effort - especially when there was a mild set back and they had less than a day to fix it to successfully dock on the International Space Station. Which they did successfully!

And just around the corner was NY Times and its attempt at bringing down another one of Mr Elon Musk's pet project - Tesla! And it was a cock fight that Mr Musk and Tesla was willing to take! And that they did live on CNBC putting his neck on line and finally shame on NY Times and its reporter.

Both efforts are coming on the heels of another disruption that Mr. Elon Musk was part of - whose influence we are watching and participating globally - Paypal has redefined the way we transact.

All these initiatives have had their ups and downs - and roadblocks from existing behemoths who have dominated their respective industries for several decades....and Mr Elon Musk and his team seem to be fighting and tweeting real time and succeeding every step of the way.

And today's follow up on Mr Elon Musk's tweets about Tesla's first quarter performance is another indication that disruptions can be made in deep rooted traditional industries - and can be done simultaneously ....Silicon Valley style.

Hats off to Mr Elon Musk!

Keep those tweets coming, Mr Musk!

DLS - Coloring My Head Red!

Well ... Not Exactly! 

My skin showed up a bit too early along with the greying hair. Lucky me - my Stylist - if you want to call her that, is polite and never brings up my diminishing return on hair investment. After fifteen some years of same place , time and tips- my styling time started getting shorter & shorter like my privilege status driven shrinking wait time! 10 minutes’ drive....5 minutes wait and maybe a few more minutes to tame my thinning patch of hair! Small talk big talk my ears didn't care. 

And then one day - something different to chew on! My hair stood around the rim of my ear lobes- Yes guilty...Exaggeration!

Yes she says I should color my hair....before answering I looked carefully around to make sure it was directed at me and only me!

Indeed!

My curiosity driven smile turns into a laughter - which will soon become sheepish!

And then this...

"blah blah blah... .being a sales man... blah blah blah ...you will see a change in your customers outlook....blah blah blah ...Its ok to get old...but You don't have to look one!... blah blah blah......"

A customer waiting with a satellite like dish around her head joined the chorus and another one and another one too!

Rewind....some blah blah blah and rewind some more blah blah blah..and play it again in my slowing brain which has become fast and furious suddenly.....It’s ok to get old...but.....

One more time Rewind and Play! It’s ok to get old...BUT YOU DON'T....

Hairs around the ears...yeah yeah same old exaggeration...so YOU KNOW  what I am talking about!

Now my head is warming up to the idea...and suddenly I am thinking wow...what a great tag line..and I certainly have under estimated this person all these years!

Forty minutes later....a jolt! Yes I knew I shouldn't have! Its pitch black! How am I going to face my Family with this? In that moment I didn't care about my hyper inflated charge and my stretched out time! The drive back - though a short one, looked even shorter as I was scrambling to find an excuse for this decision of mine...Remember Sheepish? This is where I would add that to my look as I enter the living area! And will see it a few more times the next few days!

Thanks to Disney and Mickey I didn't garner any attention there and so I slipped right into the shower and then study pretending to be busy and pre occupied!

Then started my elaborate routine of explaining why and how I did what I did! Good ice breaker- for a few days! Sailing smoothly- 

Then came the shocker!

Getting ready to trim my beard..#%?¥#% (not so severe curse word)!! Now I understand what Salt and Pepper look like together! The growth is good and uniform.

 The growth in my face and head- didn't know I had changed colors!

And a dinner meeting in a couple of hours! €#£%^¥|#!?! (now this one is a strong & severe curse word) my Stylist for not educating me on how to cope with this complication!

 Think....and Think harder! 

Can't be that tough- a couple of black and white tubes, a small brush and a 4 by 6 inches instructions sheet. 

Mistake? well let’s reserve the judgment for later and call it....

Mission Possible and An hour later I am ready! 

Japanese are hardworking , polite and detail oriented. Keep an eye on Detail Oriented! During a dinner meeting - the detail oriented Japanese friend kept staring at my head over and over again - being polite asked ....You Exercising Jan-san, You dieting Jan-san, You looking Healthy Jan-san...You this Jan-san , you that Jan-san and more and more Jan-san....but kept silent about my darkened head patch and facial growth while keeping a side eye on them! though squirm-ish I refused to talk with my mouthful!

To get a break in conversation - I excuse myself to the boy’s room!

Another shocker was waiting for me there. Mirrors don't lie - Black and More black and it had spread beyond its intended area. And I am thinking maybe it’s not a good idea to defer any judgment ...especially if it’s spelt m.i.s.t.a.k.e  as now I am staring not at a mistake but a BIG MISTAKE!

No wonder my detail oriented friend was working Hard at controlling his laughter...in trying to be polite?!? I am thinking as I was walking back.

Start the sob story all over again....yes..yes..Sheepish Again... from my stylist all the way down to the salt and pepper induced self-help experiment!

Putting the blame squarely on my Stylist- for being so innovative and talented and felt I needed to support her creative sales pitch after all these years of bald work!

Before I could end the credit rolls- the lady sitting in the next table butted in politely and spoiled my party!

Yes She said -she is also in that profession- for over 20 years and said that is the first thing they teach in their Profession before one starts! 

As if that was not enough damage to my pride she went on and on.....

And went on to say this is the easy way to double or even triple up on the bill without any protest!

And blah blah blah and more blah blah blah before butting out!

And the black patch which had started spreading from the hair was now spreading faster and faster and all over my face!

And that my friend is the beginning of my hyper inflated bills after fifteen some years of steady hand!

The Making of a Bubble!

From Tulip Manias to Tech Bubbles - everyone knows when they are in it - and some if not all even participate in them. Its easy to identify the symptoms of a bubble ...however to know the beginning of a burst is  very difficult and extremely painful! So here we will focus only on the beginning....and will wait for the market to show the burst!

Learning from the past or from one's own mistake - some say only leads to making  new and untested mistakes in future! however some of them happen in a large scale and even repeat several times ....like the Tech Bubbles...from 80s...to 90s...to 00s and possibly we are entering one....if we are not already in one!

One classic case in the past has been to see corporate execs pumping the shares with exotic forward looking statements! With FB and Twitter entering mainstream pop culture - it is even more easy for everyone to participate!

Tesla's colorful CEO - after emerging from several controversies - recently used the Tweet to pump up his company's share!

And eBay's CEO who has been successful in turning around the sluggish Topline- is also succeeding in projecting 3-5 year growth way beyond the recent past would call far....using new metrics that eBay has not been using them for in the past....maybe following  the footsteps of Mr Jobs in being creative in what and how is being compared to?

Not to mention the successful IPO of Splunk which was quick to capitalize on the Big Data syndrome - by carefully changing the Marketing  tagline for their offerings!

And the most glaring one is even the steady-hand Bloomberg decided to dedicate a show for this pending bubble - by moving their Tech team to one of the Piers in San Francisco.....and just announced that they are expanding the program to 2 Hours!

And who can miss the Google Glass or the iWatch!!!

Granted the recent study shows that Technology Spend is to cross $3.8 T yes as in Trillion Dollars ....possibly making Technology the most influential Industry in modern commerce world.......and there is a reason to be exuberant.......but some of these symptoms are too eerie not to recall the experiences of the recent past!

Cyprus Punishment!

Call it the Merkel Conundrum  or the Euro Curse- it certainly has woken up a can of worms which has been lurking in the dark!

May be it is just a logical extension of the Financial Whatever- taking from Peter to Pay Paul! Whether it is called the bailout  or austerity the ramifications are boundless and in this twitter era- the cause and effect are not necessarily proportional!

What is interesting is the sound bites that is coming out on the news media about the Russian Payback if this were to go through in the Cyprus Parliament! From CNBC to Bloomberg the cry is the same- don't be on the cross-hair of the Russian Mafia! And the Financia Minister offering to resign rather than visit Moscow to look for solution- atleast thats the way the media would like to depict!

The Germans - Having drained out most of the weaker economies with the aid of Euro - are strong in their feelings and position...making this not a one inning game even if the hair cut in Cyprus is not implemented. And this is a dangerous game that Ms Merkel should not play.

Even if it time for someone to re-write the Financial Systems and the Global Monetary Policy Machines - who has the capability and interest to make a run at it?

The Cyprus Syndrome!

Cyprus What? Yes - it is a small unknown till now entity which is trying to hijack the Bull run! What is alarming is the nature of haircut that is being enforced by Finance Ministers under the austerity label!

Is it really that easy and simple to swing?

Can this be a blip in this modern era or just the beginning of something that we will live to pay for?

As we had mentioned way back during the early stages of the Financial Whatever - this is just an indication of things that will necessitate a new medium of transaction that with need a whole new way of thinking and collaboration- a mile away from the current day Monetary system1

And there will be plenty to capitalise on this incident - and quick to the draw is Mr Bill Gross of Germany's PIMCO! A newbie to the Twitter era - wasting no time as he called for dumping Euro! while talking against his colleague Mr Greenspan's exuberance for the stock market by moving stocks and risk-on trades to the back seat!

Unwinding the irrational!

Yes indeed!

Mr Greenspan is back - this time with a different message!

He has started unwinding the "IRRATIONAL" from the Market Exuberance.....As a paid hand for Germany's PIMCO and working closely with Bill Gross and El Erian both of PIMCO - The Bond Pirates ....it certainly adds a new twist to the market.

In a different entry we had noted that Germany's PIMCO and Mr Gross had been sidelined by Mr Bernanke - making stock market an easy play for anyone with an interest and a  dart....and now Mr G calling the market undervalued and less appreciated by investors ??

A man of numbers and conviction - might have blamed himself partially for the bubble and we have called on it a few times- however Mr Greenspan who is next only to  Mr Reagan in bringing wealth and fame to the American Consumer - though bumpy at times.....is more right and more often better than the best in its class.

So We are ready to add exuberance to our Dow 22,000!

Vatican returns to its root!

In a quick decision white smoke cleared the way for cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio to lead the faithful through a transitory period.  Born to Italian immigrants the new Pope brings rich heritage and faith to Vatican.

A Case for Dow 22,000!

- Ben B will get re-elected for another term....so 10-15% correction before the news of nomination will be a great buying op

- Tech bubble like the back end of Clinton Era to be supported by Mr O

- Dow Inflation to be supported by Industrials, Pharma , Energy & IBM- who are all flirting with 3 digits

- Close to Half of US economy floated by the Government - Healthcare, Defense, Finance, Auto, Housing, Education....not to mention the Government!

- The New Normal also applies to a near permanent low interest environment making debt a common place in the balance sheet again- which will be used for dividends and share buy backs

- Euro joining Japan and China in lowering their currencies Supporting Dollar

- A change in the role of commodities and energy allowing global growth in markets suffering currently

Letterman Indicator makes Romney the Next President!

Talkshow host Mr David Letterman has been covering politics and feeds its audience a very innovative and laughable/hilarious segment during the election. Unknowingly he is leaving a trail which predicts the winner way ahead of the polls and pundits could. Dating back to Mr Clinton - Mr Letterman has picked one of the candidates and focused on their traits and policies for his segment on the Preseidential segment. And the winner has always been the one he has chosen as a centerpiece of his humor. And this time based on his early picks on Mr Romney - it is very likely that Mr Romney could be the next President!

Is Apple headed to $380?

Seven Reasons Why Apple will head South! - Product Upgrade cycle is reaching marginal at best - Usability based devices are yet to scale functionality - Data plans are sky rocketting - iTV , if there is one , could never compete in the mass market TV - New generation - kids entering teen are yet to fall for its Magic - global purchasing power is shrinking - Tim Cook is no Steve Jobs

Wake-Up Mr. Nice Guy!

It is a shame that the whole World is blaming Nasdaq & their allies for the FB flop!

 Or is Mr Z too smart like his drop out Harvard Alma Mater Mr G and salvaging what he could to keep all his Friends?

Either way it is time for Nasdaq and Mr Greifeld to wake up and go Offensive.

Please Mr Greifeld don't be Nice & Friendly - everyone knows that FB was doomed even before the roadshow and dont fall for this blame game!

Don't Try This @Home!

The thought had crossed my mind more than once! I had even thought about what I should and will do if it ever happened.

And it did!

I could see myself plunge my hand and grab it quickly- when i did!

And didn't hesitate even a second to wash it immediately and grab the hand towel to wipe it!

Wipe it? Yes - that I did carefully & hurriedly! 

My heart racing while I carefully turned it around and looked for cracks and crevices to clean and wipe- with my hand towel.

And then I tried to hold it carefully and touched the button while my heart racing even faster.

It lighted my heart while I was gasping and danced my fingers around the surface gently at first and then impatiently! And as HE said it was Magical!

My heart slowing and my breathing a bit normal I  let out a sigh of relief and finally settled down to pursue what I originally intended to do before it happened and stole my Full two minutes away in a hurry!

Now with all my faculty working back at normal mode I started replaying what had just happened- I couldn't believe what HAD just happened.

Then I justified my action with that famous 3 second law of life - which I will get to in a second! If that wasn't enough my mind reminded me that In the whole process I hadn't quite taken care of my hand that plunged and did the wonderful speedy job- not to mention the fate of the hand towel. And I was really happy that this whole shenanigan happened before and YES BEFORE I did what I came into do in the first place!

And now my brain was wondering if I should share this experience with my family & friends- my heart reminded me that they might not take it in a humane way so I decided to save it for a future date.

Having accomplished what I had originally planned I walked out with the towel staring at my back sadly!

Oh Well I was still quite satisfied with the happy ending after all this mess!

And yes - about that 3 second law....well I learned long back from a wise friend of mine when I was in KG- its ok to pick up the candy within 3 seconds from the moment it leaves your mouth....and sure I was really impressed with my spontaneity in repurposing beyond its original intention!

And its more than a week now and having learned my lesson and everything working fine - I just am a bit more careful when I use my iPhone in the toilet after that! 

And I know you all are snickering at this as you probably knew it was bound to happen given my past experience with iSomethings!!