Is Amazon the new eBay?
Can Amazon digest Whole Foods?
From a numbers game: the simple math is - Amazon's PE multiple comes down
very quickly given another 15 plus Billion dollars whose multiple is way less
than Amazon's!
And Whole foods does not have to make profit to retail and grow its
business - making it easy to expand ORGANICALLY!
Every 40 years or so American consumers redefine the way they shop and
retail industry slowly adapts itself to their behavior.
Woolworth - Sears to Walmart and now maybe just maybe Amazon? Looking at
the stock price and the analysts /pundits one has to believe that the baton has
been transferred.
What/Who are they compared with:
eBay Killer
FedEx Destroyer
Netfix Wannabe
Macy's Poacher
Wal-Mart Beater
O'Reilly Auto parts ??
HollyWood Invader
USPS life giver
And so Amazon's Market Cap is way more than several of those individual
parts put together!
Half the revenue from Amazon is third party sale- great but the eBay
experience in quality and fakes are creeping up the ladder.
Reliable 2 day Prime delivery has started getting Uberized with low cost
delivery service with multiple hands in a single delivery - Amazon Logistics to
USPS to local crowd sourced delivery type : making very unpredictable and
unreliable delivery services
Netflix : might have a reasonable chance in creating some original
content given the willingness to spend money on Talent like Top Gear
bunch...having tied it with Amazon Prime it is very difficult to really gauge its
success as majority of Amazon's streaming customers are not just streaming
subscribers.
AWS: makes it easy to undercut the fees as the technology is used
elsewhere...however with no recognizable software and hardware on its own and
hardly much profit left to invest beyond its primary business needs - will be
difficult to dance to Microsoft and Alphabet's tune as money is bulging out of the
seems for the seems!
Retail and the Mall deserters: branding and quality control is something
that is not streamlined supply chain and logistics.....with eBay types
dominating the Amazon revenue the quality is nothing to write home about. Some
branded players while trialing Amazon mall for peddling their products - Macys
and the likes may eventually make it tougher for the brands to be pushing
through Amazon while they spread them in their floors. Wal-Mart customers go
shopping with a budget in mind and come home with what is attractive while
Amazon crowd goes with an item in mind and price as a target. With less
than 30% of Amazon's revenue overlaps with Wal-Mart's and that number is
less than 10% of Wal-Mart's - and barely make money - the transition wont be
that easy.
Auto Parts - is a recent headline grabber pushing down most of the brick
and mortar ones - the after market business is not an easy one for nickel and
dime type of transition - it is a relationship based one with want it now
syndrome!
In today's technology dream - from AI to robotics to drones and what not
every headline grabbing news from Alexa to Amazon buttons and Alexa
Fashionista - there is another inch closer to a Trillion dollar value....but
reading carefully at the real value underneath the Amazon transformation giant
is another eBay brewing!
No comments:
Post a Comment