From Greenspan Put to Bernanke Floor we have come to manage the market to directly & indirectly support the expectations.
Now under the Obama Administration we are seeing a new & agressive Expectation Management.
The latest Snowstorm and the Obama Quickstop Plan agressively propogated that the now effect will be pretty damaging to the unemployment report.
Well ahead of the real report the market has been set on track to expect a pretty bad number-
Good Strategy & it worked very well!
Is Obama Quickstop the New Greenspan Put or the Bernanke Put? If it is then the Market will be bouyant & we can see a nice boost in the near term till the economy cn stand on its own!
High Noon Summer Perpetual Spring / Fall New Normal ..3-5 years!
IMF & Germany
Confidence in teh numbers - PIMCO & others
Friday, March 5, 2010
Thursday, March 4, 2010
As the pandits would say....lights are on in the Citi!
A very Articulate , confident and convincing at the Hill!
Citi under Mr Pandit has been taking the beeting from reporters and analysts alike through out this Financial Whatever!
Heavy hitters in the Investment communities have started warming up to the emerging Citi and its global brand and how Mr Pandit could possibly make it a multi-bagger for the once in a life time opportunity through its common!
And today listening to Mr Pandit's testimony it is very clear the tide is changing and it is ready to emerge as a Global Banking Force once again.
Citi under Mr Pandit has been taking the beeting from reporters and analysts alike through out this Financial Whatever!
Heavy hitters in the Investment communities have started warming up to the emerging Citi and its global brand and how Mr Pandit could possibly make it a multi-bagger for the once in a life time opportunity through its common!
And today listening to Mr Pandit's testimony it is very clear the tide is changing and it is ready to emerge as a Global Banking Force once again.
Weakening Japanese Yen in cards?
The case for a Weakening Yen -
Japan becoming a less attractive destination compared to China and India
Japanese companies lagging behind in Innovation in the Internet age losing their strongholds to companies like Apple
The Toyota Recall seems to put more than a quality dent in the Automaker - it is slowly raising questions about the Japanese style of Management and customer care
Not to mention the Aging Japanese population which is forced to rely more and more for the export market
And ofcourse low rates and near zero rate financing is not just a Japan syndrome.
With Toyota not fading to the background might force not just Toyota but the Japanese government to do something more dramatic to keep customers flocking to the Japan Brand.
As one of the step Yen Will be forced to weaken significantly from its current levels.
Japan becoming a less attractive destination compared to China and India
Japanese companies lagging behind in Innovation in the Internet age losing their strongholds to companies like Apple
The Toyota Recall seems to put more than a quality dent in the Automaker - it is slowly raising questions about the Japanese style of Management and customer care
Not to mention the Aging Japanese population which is forced to rely more and more for the export market
And ofcourse low rates and near zero rate financing is not just a Japan syndrome.
With Toyota not fading to the background might force not just Toyota but the Japanese government to do something more dramatic to keep customers flocking to the Japan Brand.
As one of the step Yen Will be forced to weaken significantly from its current levels.
"Pay for Procedure!"
Healthcare mess and a stalemate in Washington!
Lobbyists arming the senators and congressman alike with ammunition to fight for their corporate loyalists!
Everyone sensitive to be frank & open on addressing the real problem - As the House speaker said
Accessiblity
Affordability &
Accountability
This needs to apply to every participant in the system includent the beneficiary-ala consumer!
What we havent adressed is the OPEN market competition which compress the pay packages & the premiums for healthcare alike.
For the first time we are hearing politicians & policimakers , who have distanced themselves in addressing the underlying root caue for the cost runup , are finally braving themselves- the catch phrase - "Pay for proedure" needs to be changed!
Now this is just the beginning and might take a whole lot mre to make healthcare affordable & accessible - not to mention accountable!
Lobbyists arming the senators and congressman alike with ammunition to fight for their corporate loyalists!
Everyone sensitive to be frank & open on addressing the real problem - As the House speaker said
Accessiblity
Affordability &
Accountability
This needs to apply to every participant in the system includent the beneficiary-ala consumer!
What we havent adressed is the OPEN market competition which compress the pay packages & the premiums for healthcare alike.
For the first time we are hearing politicians & policimakers , who have distanced themselves in addressing the underlying root caue for the cost runup , are finally braving themselves- the catch phrase - "Pay for proedure" needs to be changed!
Now this is just the beginning and might take a whole lot mre to make healthcare affordable & accessible - not to mention accountable!
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Rolling Stones & the Golden Squid!
Media business and music world is still struggling with the modern version of human entertainment!
Selling painted bodysuite by Sports Illustrated to politicians womanizing by TVs and publishers alike havent really spurred much of enthusiasm in this internet enabled population...
From Unintended acceleration to late night talkshow street fights dont seem to stick longer..
From Mr summers to Ms Merkel the Golden mantra for their inadequate policies GS has been a boon with an intended acceleration toward financial reforms and market regulations - yet failing to gin much traction..
But, But not the Golden boys and their Greecy business tactics!!
Yes Mr Blank-enstein ala God - May be the Wall Street Version -and His abode Goldman Sachs seems to attract media attention and main street anger and gives incapable policy makers and politicians enough ammunition to garner followers!
We have seen New York Times go after GS with minded focus - maybe to get shareholder attention? And Fox Business News with its newly acquired asset - Mr Gasparino from CNBC doing the same to create an audience....From Wall Street Journal to Financial Times try and do some investigative journalism
Now a these we an understand..
But, But - Rolling Stones on Golden Squid and the Goldman Boys and practies....? Its like Playboy writing on Faith and Religion for intellectual masturbation! And all media giving them an airplay and wasting ink on reproduction?
May be , Just May we have reached the bottom in this Goldman Sach dog and pony show and it should start fding to the background!
Selling painted bodysuite by Sports Illustrated to politicians womanizing by TVs and publishers alike havent really spurred much of enthusiasm in this internet enabled population...
From Unintended acceleration to late night talkshow street fights dont seem to stick longer..
From Mr summers to Ms Merkel the Golden mantra for their inadequate policies GS has been a boon with an intended acceleration toward financial reforms and market regulations - yet failing to gin much traction..
But, But not the Golden boys and their Greecy business tactics!!
Yes Mr Blank-enstein ala God - May be the Wall Street Version -and His abode Goldman Sachs seems to attract media attention and main street anger and gives incapable policy makers and politicians enough ammunition to garner followers!
We have seen New York Times go after GS with minded focus - maybe to get shareholder attention? And Fox Business News with its newly acquired asset - Mr Gasparino from CNBC doing the same to create an audience....From Wall Street Journal to Financial Times try and do some investigative journalism
Now a these we an understand..
But, But - Rolling Stones on Golden Squid and the Goldman Boys and practies....? Its like Playboy writing on Faith and Religion for intellectual masturbation! And all media giving them an airplay and wasting ink on reproduction?
May be , Just May we have reached the bottom in this Goldman Sach dog and pony show and it should start fding to the background!
Monday, March 1, 2010
Pounding the British is not an Olympian task!
After milking the Germans with the Greecy practice the market movers look to London for another Golden triump!
With the British Pound losing over 25% in this crisis and the value still headed South is it safe to bet against the Brits?
With Modern Economics of Global monetray system still misunderstood by politicians and policy makers alike - it is hardly the time to bet against the English - the master mind of the monetary system that is widely practiced globally!
What Mr Soros failed to do - the rest of the gang may find it even more difficult to achieve - however it might give a temporary opportunity to benefit from the wild swing that the currency market will produce.
With the British Pound losing over 25% in this crisis and the value still headed South is it safe to bet against the Brits?
With Modern Economics of Global monetray system still misunderstood by politicians and policy makers alike - it is hardly the time to bet against the English - the master mind of the monetary system that is widely practiced globally!
What Mr Soros failed to do - the rest of the gang may find it even more difficult to achieve - however it might give a temporary opportunity to benefit from the wild swing that the currency market will produce.
Healthcare: Pay for Results & not for procedures - Mr Buffet
Indeed a loaded statement from Mr Buffet on health care practices in America.
Politicians and Practice leaders are tongue tied when it comes to medical compensation and practices are everyone is affected & close to those who provide them the care & are obviously nervous to take an objective view into the healthcare reform.
Everyone talks about healthcare cost running out of control & trying to slice the bread with the wrong end of the knife.
And Mr Buffet in a CNBC interview on healthcare reform made the most profound statement anyone has made till date - A loaded statement which if paid attention to in Washington we will have an affordable and practical healthcare solutions and open up the multi-trillion dollar industry for REAL COMPETITION like every other industry making the cost of services affordable and driven by market pressures!
Politicians and Practice leaders are tongue tied when it comes to medical compensation and practices are everyone is affected & close to those who provide them the care & are obviously nervous to take an objective view into the healthcare reform.
Everyone talks about healthcare cost running out of control & trying to slice the bread with the wrong end of the knife.
And Mr Buffet in a CNBC interview on healthcare reform made the most profound statement anyone has made till date - A loaded statement which if paid attention to in Washington we will have an affordable and practical healthcare solutions and open up the multi-trillion dollar industry for REAL COMPETITION like every other industry making the cost of services affordable and driven by market pressures!
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Old Cool Aid in a New Bottle!
How long does it take to rebrand , repackage and sell the same stuff after getting slapped and bailed out?
Not Very long!
GMAC & Ditech - know for predatory lending and aggressive marketing campaigns in attracting every one who fell in the Sub prime category!
After getting a very sweet deal - which not many realised - which is being currently questioned and investigated with little or no traction - is back at it!
Same aggressive tactic & predatory campaigns!
Under a new name!
Ally!
Yes Ally Bank! What the hey!
Who is sleeping on the wheels when so much has been talked about learning from the past!
Well now that Ally Bank is part owned by the Tax payers like every other major Banks , Autos & AIG ....one wonders if we will ever learn from the mistakes if the Government keeps intervening to protect failures and prevent the market from self correcting!
Not Very long!
GMAC & Ditech - know for predatory lending and aggressive marketing campaigns in attracting every one who fell in the Sub prime category!
After getting a very sweet deal - which not many realised - which is being currently questioned and investigated with little or no traction - is back at it!
Same aggressive tactic & predatory campaigns!
Under a new name!
Ally!
Yes Ally Bank! What the hey!
Who is sleeping on the wheels when so much has been talked about learning from the past!
Well now that Ally Bank is part owned by the Tax payers like every other major Banks , Autos & AIG ....one wonders if we will ever learn from the mistakes if the Government keeps intervening to protect failures and prevent the market from self correcting!
Drive to Washington wasn't bumpy for Mr Toyoda!
A long journey!
And a long ordeal in Washington!
Absolutely Positively Mr Toyoda has the right Answer for all the questions and humiliation:
I am Sorry- Mr America & Mr Consumer! We will do better!
Several Hours several questions - Same Sincere and sorry face!
Good Work Mr Toyoda!
The press has turned soft & has started showing the good side!
And a long ordeal in Washington!
Absolutely Positively Mr Toyoda has the right Answer for all the questions and humiliation:
I am Sorry- Mr America & Mr Consumer! We will do better!
Several Hours several questions - Same Sincere and sorry face!
Good Work Mr Toyoda!
The press has turned soft & has started showing the good side!
New York Times and Goldman: Who will win?
Another day and another missile and another attack!
From bail-outs to derivatives and everthing in-between!
From V#$kerrule to Propreitary trading
From Executive bonuses to H1N1 flu shots
From lobbyists to conspiracy theories
From Sheila Bair to Big Ben
From AIG to Greece......
From every angle New York Times has a story and investigative reporting- weaving in and out on Goldman Sachs and how it and it only played the most damaging role in this Financial Whatever we are experiencing!
Is NYTimes trying to get recognition in the gobal Financial market- like WSJ and FT? Looking at the approach and the flimsy nature of the investigation it certainly looks like a Financial Tabloid trying to smear at Goldman Sach and its dominance of the Wall Street activities and their influence in Washington!
From bail-outs to derivatives and everthing in-between!
From V#$kerrule to Propreitary trading
From Executive bonuses to H1N1 flu shots
From lobbyists to conspiracy theories
From Sheila Bair to Big Ben
From AIG to Greece......
From every angle New York Times has a story and investigative reporting- weaving in and out on Goldman Sachs and how it and it only played the most damaging role in this Financial Whatever we are experiencing!
Is NYTimes trying to get recognition in the gobal Financial market- like WSJ and FT? Looking at the approach and the flimsy nature of the investigation it certainly looks like a Financial Tabloid trying to smear at Goldman Sach and its dominance of the Wall Street activities and their influence in Washington!
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Does Greenspan support his co-workers at PIMCO?
Mr Greenspan correctly pointed to the recession before anyone did and got bad mouthed for the premature predictions & eventually got the blame for it as well.
In a recent comment about the American economy his catch phrase is on exuberance but "extremely uneven" and an extended period of elevated unemployment with not so visible growth in areas of high impact business areas - like housing and autos and small businesses-
sounds like PIMCO's preaching of "NEW NORM"....if this is an independent assessment by Mr Greenspan and not influenced by his affiliation to Germany's PIMCO then it might be something we should pay attention to!
In a recent comment about the American economy his catch phrase is on exuberance but "extremely uneven" and an extended period of elevated unemployment with not so visible growth in areas of high impact business areas - like housing and autos and small businesses-
sounds like PIMCO's preaching of "NEW NORM"....if this is an independent assessment by Mr Greenspan and not influenced by his affiliation to Germany's PIMCO then it might be something we should pay attention to!
Privacy PLEASE...Finally Italians spank Google!
Nude beach in a private corner...
Pay to keep your name off the telephone books...
Fence to keep your neighbor off your property...
dress to shield your skins....
speak softly to keep a secret....
And on and on and on....From time immemorial mankind has always paid a premium for privacy & keeping it close and tight until some one found a way to make money out of exposing them..GOOGLE!
Is it fair for a company to expose what is others and belongs to others and profit out of it? How is this diferent from Papparazi and the TMZs of he world?
Mapping your private quarters and detailing information that are kept aside precisely and instantaneously...locally and globally all at a price for teh affected and for a profit to the Google shareholders!
Now someone wised up and is ready to slap the hands of Google for not getting the consent of thosse affected before broadcasting them not to mention profitting from it!
Whose responsibility is it to get the PROPER consent before capturing, storing & broadcasting them?
Is it the person who initiates the process or the entity who stores and broadcasts them & promotes such activity?
If ditribution is an intrical part of the activity - then the peddler have a responsiblity to share the bame!
What the Italian court did may not be enough to stop the Google juggernaught...however sooner or later a modified version of "PRIVACY LAW" will take over and people will have the opportunity to enjoy their PRIVACY once again!
Pay to keep your name off the telephone books...
Fence to keep your neighbor off your property...
dress to shield your skins....
speak softly to keep a secret....
And on and on and on....From time immemorial mankind has always paid a premium for privacy & keeping it close and tight until some one found a way to make money out of exposing them..GOOGLE!
Is it fair for a company to expose what is others and belongs to others and profit out of it? How is this diferent from Papparazi and the TMZs of he world?
Mapping your private quarters and detailing information that are kept aside precisely and instantaneously...locally and globally all at a price for teh affected and for a profit to the Google shareholders!
Now someone wised up and is ready to slap the hands of Google for not getting the consent of thosse affected before broadcasting them not to mention profitting from it!
Whose responsibility is it to get the PROPER consent before capturing, storing & broadcasting them?
Is it the person who initiates the process or the entity who stores and broadcasts them & promotes such activity?
If ditribution is an intrical part of the activity - then the peddler have a responsiblity to share the bame!
What the Italian court did may not be enough to stop the Google juggernaught...however sooner or later a modified version of "PRIVACY LAW" will take over and people will have the opportunity to enjoy their PRIVACY once again!
PIMCO's New Normal...
What is NEW NORMAL according to Mr El Erian of Germany's PIMCO:
> Greater Government Regulation
> Lower Consumption
> Slower Growth
> shrinking global role for US economy
And Resulting in
Lower Than Average Returns!
> Greater Government Regulation
> Lower Consumption
> Slower Growth
> shrinking global role for US economy
And Resulting in
Lower Than Average Returns!
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Toyota & the Art of Japanese Management!
When Akio Morita ruled the Management World - Japan was peaking! From Harvard to Silicon Valley the rage was Japanese style Management!
From Quality circles to pull systems - the world was amazed! Every market that the Japanese entered the eventually dominated the market - from consumer electronics to industrial automation!
That is yester years! Or yester Decades ago!
After 20 years of struggle from its peak- is Toyota incident an aberration or just the kind of symptoms that leads to systemic collapse of a developed economy?
The largest market for Toyota till date - the North American consumers - have kept Toyota and Lexus in a pedestal and they have maintained an impeccable image.
The last three months of events are exposing a style of Management that Japan is used to when it comes to markets outside Japan!
Mr Lentz - a poor choice for Toyota t send to the fire storm - doing more damage than an average Joe blow could have done in a similar set up!
No Preparation!
No recollection of case data!
Fumbling on details and communications!
An air of arrogance - a typical used car sales attitude till he was put in his place!
An about turn to accommodate and apologise - and surrender - an attempt at crying - yes its an emotional narration - but hardly believable!
This certainly exposes the Japanese style of management that the World hasn't been exposed to - where the domestic market and operations are nothing but a bunch of puppets who cannot think and act independently!
Sony and Nissan - have been handed over to non Japanese executives to turn around their businesses as they have failed to survive under Akio Morita's Art of Management!
If Toyota does not change its style of Management it will be very difficult to handle their dominance with manufacturing alone!
Mr Toyoda - Good luck with your Washington encounter! Hope your legacy and openness will leave a believable impressions - which Mr Lentz failed to accomplish!
From Quality circles to pull systems - the world was amazed! Every market that the Japanese entered the eventually dominated the market - from consumer electronics to industrial automation!
That is yester years! Or yester Decades ago!
After 20 years of struggle from its peak- is Toyota incident an aberration or just the kind of symptoms that leads to systemic collapse of a developed economy?
The largest market for Toyota till date - the North American consumers - have kept Toyota and Lexus in a pedestal and they have maintained an impeccable image.
The last three months of events are exposing a style of Management that Japan is used to when it comes to markets outside Japan!
Mr Lentz - a poor choice for Toyota t send to the fire storm - doing more damage than an average Joe blow could have done in a similar set up!
No Preparation!
No recollection of case data!
Fumbling on details and communications!
An air of arrogance - a typical used car sales attitude till he was put in his place!
An about turn to accommodate and apologise - and surrender - an attempt at crying - yes its an emotional narration - but hardly believable!
This certainly exposes the Japanese style of management that the World hasn't been exposed to - where the domestic market and operations are nothing but a bunch of puppets who cannot think and act independently!
Sony and Nissan - have been handed over to non Japanese executives to turn around their businesses as they have failed to survive under Akio Morita's Art of Management!
If Toyota does not change its style of Management it will be very difficult to handle their dominance with manufacturing alone!
Mr Toyoda - Good luck with your Washington encounter! Hope your legacy and openness will leave a believable impressions - which Mr Lentz failed to accomplish!
Italy latest to gamble in derivatives..!
Italy has made over $10 Billion investing and speculating in the swaps market over the last decade!
Bravo for disclosing their winning streak on the heals of the Olympian failure by the Greeks and getting spanked for their Roman indulgences!
In the name of hedging and spreading risks more and more economies are following the path of least resistance to making money without disrupting their political affiliations and maintaining their populist stand!
This could pose a serious advantage to the Fixed Income players as they find more and more sophisticated mechanism to manipulate and manage smaller economies to favor their investment objectives. Euro in its current form poses a major structural danger that could help people with access to sophisticated financial instruments to disrupt smooth flow of capital while playing God and spanking any player defying their rule book!
Bravo for disclosing their winning streak on the heals of the Olympian failure by the Greeks and getting spanked for their Roman indulgences!
In the name of hedging and spreading risks more and more economies are following the path of least resistance to making money without disrupting their political affiliations and maintaining their populist stand!
This could pose a serious advantage to the Fixed Income players as they find more and more sophisticated mechanism to manipulate and manage smaller economies to favor their investment objectives. Euro in its current form poses a major structural danger that could help people with access to sophisticated financial instruments to disrupt smooth flow of capital while playing God and spanking any player defying their rule book!
Monday, February 22, 2010
Toyota - A good buy in a bumpy road!
Mr Toyoda goes to Washington while Consumers drive to Honda and Ford dealers!
While the Dealers look to Paris for her winning tricks- it sure looks like hell for Toyota motors and its crashing stock!
Saving $100 Million dollars in negotiating with NHTSA is hardly an ethical flaw to break the company given billions and billions are spent in Washington by Lobbyists to manage and swing the policy makers.
Auto market is still licking its wound form the Financial Whatever..and the consumers are ready for the upgrade cycle. With China and India grows at blistering speed the current nightmare might pass as another dream in achieving Toyota's global dream.
Toyota share is a good buy and if it crashes/falls during the Washington reddericks on Toyota - it will be great opportunity to load up on Toyota for long term investors.
While the Dealers look to Paris for her winning tricks- it sure looks like hell for Toyota motors and its crashing stock!
Saving $100 Million dollars in negotiating with NHTSA is hardly an ethical flaw to break the company given billions and billions are spent in Washington by Lobbyists to manage and swing the policy makers.
Auto market is still licking its wound form the Financial Whatever..and the consumers are ready for the upgrade cycle. With China and India grows at blistering speed the current nightmare might pass as another dream in achieving Toyota's global dream.
Toyota share is a good buy and if it crashes/falls during the Washington reddericks on Toyota - it will be great opportunity to load up on Toyota for long term investors.
Is Euro a Risky proposition?
Greece is on everyone's mind and now that everyone knows where Greece is...its a logical extension for people like Soros to question the existence of Euro.
The unwinding of Euro and going back to national currency system will be a major nightmare given its role in the global capital market.
Growing pains and structural inadequcies might be adjusted to accomodate the inequalities in still developing and not so sophisticated EU countries while the fixed income players harvest and feat on the swiss holed currency!
Yet - the failure or fracture f the currency is hardly a case for the demise of Euro!
Euro II will emerge better and stronger and will pose a major threat to Dollar a few exits down the Currency Bahn!
The unwinding of Euro and going back to national currency system will be a major nightmare given its role in the global capital market.
Growing pains and structural inadequcies might be adjusted to accomodate the inequalities in still developing and not so sophisticated EU countries while the fixed income players harvest and feat on the swiss holed currency!
Yet - the failure or fracture f the currency is hardly a case for the demise of Euro!
Euro II will emerge better and stronger and will pose a major threat to Dollar a few exits down the Currency Bahn!
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Washington Invites Mr Toyoda!
Finally a formal invite to Mr Toyoda!
Should Mr Toyoda drive to Washington?
Should Mr Toyoda drive to Washington?
Ms Merkel spanks Goldman for Greecy Behaviour!
And ofcourse supports EURO's solidarity and claims EURO's help in managing the Financial Whatever!
Germany benefiting the most from Euro and the Maastricht Treaty in its various evolution cycle- till date.
The Weaker economies and countries are strapped and stripped of their economic prosperity as Germany and to a lesser extent France enjoying prosperity during the last decade. Heading into its teen can Euro be s=distracted by the fixed income players who have remarkable found a loop hole to benefit from the Germany backed EU policies?
As Ms Merkel voices more and more of her iron fisted opinion about Greece has found Goldman Sachs as another scape goat to eat the cake and keep it too!
During the last few years we have seen many scandals and bribery come out of Germany from Siemens to Mercedes Benz which some slapping from US and very little from Ms Merkel's administration - and yet when it comes to slapping Goldman Sachs and Greece , which obviously benefits German interest , Ms Merkel is quick on the draw!
How long can Ms Merkel play this charade before the local communities rebel against the Big Brothers who are stealing their future?
Germany benefiting the most from Euro and the Maastricht Treaty in its various evolution cycle- till date.
The Weaker economies and countries are strapped and stripped of their economic prosperity as Germany and to a lesser extent France enjoying prosperity during the last decade. Heading into its teen can Euro be s=distracted by the fixed income players who have remarkable found a loop hole to benefit from the Germany backed EU policies?
As Ms Merkel voices more and more of her iron fisted opinion about Greece has found Goldman Sachs as another scape goat to eat the cake and keep it too!
During the last few years we have seen many scandals and bribery come out of Germany from Siemens to Mercedes Benz which some slapping from US and very little from Ms Merkel's administration - and yet when it comes to slapping Goldman Sachs and Greece , which obviously benefits German interest , Ms Merkel is quick on the draw!
How long can Ms Merkel play this charade before the local communities rebel against the Big Brothers who are stealing their future?
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
What NEXT...Mr Ellison?
America's Cup is not a dream anymore!
After spending close to a decade and may be more than a Billion Dollars Mr Ellison won the America's Cup with Style & Elegance and by more than a mile!
Oracle has been winning on its own under the able leadership of the Dual Personalities of Ms Safra and Mr Phillips...with Mr Ellison looking from above!
Now that America's Cup is in his locker will MR Ellison focus more on the Corporate World and really make Oracle the leader of the heap beating the likes of IBM and HP?
It is a tall order to scale that wall of Technology- there is no personalities to fight like Mr Gates or Mr Bertarelli from his past brawls - only vision and execution! With IBM and HP close to four times in size by revenue - it will take more than a dozen Peoplesofts and Siebels or Sun Microsystems to beat them in revenue-
However if Mr Ellison has the tenacity and the execution capability - which he has - and focuses in bringing his Thin Client with fat Oracle in the back office - he can make it happen without too much of acquisition. As his vision from over 15 years back - of thin client is slowly taking shapes under a different name - Mr Ellision can conquer the World of Technology if he can execute and deliver on his recent acquisitions.
Oracle is a steal at this price based on the Sun synergy!
After spending close to a decade and may be more than a Billion Dollars Mr Ellison won the America's Cup with Style & Elegance and by more than a mile!
Oracle has been winning on its own under the able leadership of the Dual Personalities of Ms Safra and Mr Phillips...with Mr Ellison looking from above!
Now that America's Cup is in his locker will MR Ellison focus more on the Corporate World and really make Oracle the leader of the heap beating the likes of IBM and HP?
It is a tall order to scale that wall of Technology- there is no personalities to fight like Mr Gates or Mr Bertarelli from his past brawls - only vision and execution! With IBM and HP close to four times in size by revenue - it will take more than a dozen Peoplesofts and Siebels or Sun Microsystems to beat them in revenue-
However if Mr Ellison has the tenacity and the execution capability - which he has - and focuses in bringing his Thin Client with fat Oracle in the back office - he can make it happen without too much of acquisition. As his vision from over 15 years back - of thin client is slowly taking shapes under a different name - Mr Ellision can conquer the World of Technology if he can execute and deliver on his recent acquisitions.
Oracle is a steal at this price based on the Sun synergy!
M & A is back and might help the recovery!
2010 might turn out to be a big year for M&A and might not just help Wall Street firms but will certainly aid the recovery and have a huge impact in the ailing economy!
BIG DOGS of Europe!
First it was Barclays; Now it is BNP Paribas - slowly the Phoenix is rising!
Yes after almost two years the winners are emerging and resoundingy!
The Investment bankers are licking their - well not their wounds - but their preys and loading up on profits and bonuses!
Can this trend help them fight the PIMCO's of the world and maintain their superiority and bring the economy back to life?
Ms Merkel and the likes while eating the Cake under an EURO umbrella are also attempting to keep it at the expense of the weeklings of Europe - which will aid the PIMCOs f the world and make it difficult for the Barclays of the world.
Ms Merkel might lose the War as London and NY rise from their ashes - may be with a couple of more quarters of profit!
Yes after almost two years the winners are emerging and resoundingy!
The Investment bankers are licking their - well not their wounds - but their preys and loading up on profits and bonuses!
Can this trend help them fight the PIMCO's of the world and maintain their superiority and bring the economy back to life?
Ms Merkel and the likes while eating the Cake under an EURO umbrella are also attempting to keep it at the expense of the weeklings of Europe - which will aid the PIMCOs f the world and make it difficult for the Barclays of the world.
Ms Merkel might lose the War as London and NY rise from their ashes - may be with a couple of more quarters of profit!
FOXy Moves!
Arrogant , Full of attitude & Great Reporting!
No not Mr Murdoch!
Charlie Gasparino & he has left a blazing record of his character and his ability to bring sensation to an otherwise boring Wall Street Media!
Fox Business has been shooting blank bullets since its inception and missed the Almost Depression opportunity entirely - which was a great opportunity!
Then again WSJ under its umbrella has become a partisan play - another bold bet by Newscorp! Which might help Financial Times gain market share in the US market which has been a WSJ & Barrons world for over a century!
Mr Murdoch has always been a slow started in every asset he has purchased - including FOX - which has become the most watched network after being ridiculed for years to imitate and steat the BIG THREE!
May Be , Just May Be - Mr Gasparino joining his peers - Yes Arrogant , Bold & Opinionated individuals - who have been dominating the viewership - like Mr Oriely , Mr Beck and the likes , is only the beginning and will change the FBN fortune!
No not Mr Murdoch!
Charlie Gasparino & he has left a blazing record of his character and his ability to bring sensation to an otherwise boring Wall Street Media!
Fox Business has been shooting blank bullets since its inception and missed the Almost Depression opportunity entirely - which was a great opportunity!
Then again WSJ under its umbrella has become a partisan play - another bold bet by Newscorp! Which might help Financial Times gain market share in the US market which has been a WSJ & Barrons world for over a century!
Mr Murdoch has always been a slow started in every asset he has purchased - including FOX - which has become the most watched network after being ridiculed for years to imitate and steat the BIG THREE!
May Be , Just May Be - Mr Gasparino joining his peers - Yes Arrogant , Bold & Opinionated individuals - who have been dominating the viewership - like Mr Oriely , Mr Beck and the likes , is only the beginning and will change the FBN fortune!
Friday, February 12, 2010
Greecing the Market with Chinese Legs!
Moving from Financial Whatever to a more stable economic environment is still a complicated process and might be several ones for several books for several years to come!
Even before the stage lights are off from the Greece and EURO play - here comes China and their tightening measures!
And ofcourse the market getting jitty on that!
Unlike Greece - China is a large economy and could potentially have an impact - BUT, Yes BUT like Japan and every other closed market China is also less open to gloabl corporations! Currency is a managed instrument in China! Its a very very Export economy!
A wild swing in teh market only demonstrates that we are still being shunted around the poles byt he handful managing and manipulating hte direction - May be this is what Mr El Elrian call the "New Norm" - where a manipulated and fragile financial system is very pportunisitic f you know who is the Director is for the current stage and know the script - as it gets layed over and over again!
Even before the stage lights are off from the Greece and EURO play - here comes China and their tightening measures!
And ofcourse the market getting jitty on that!
Unlike Greece - China is a large economy and could potentially have an impact - BUT, Yes BUT like Japan and every other closed market China is also less open to gloabl corporations! Currency is a managed instrument in China! Its a very very Export economy!
A wild swing in teh market only demonstrates that we are still being shunted around the poles byt he handful managing and manipulating hte direction - May be this is what Mr El Elrian call the "New Norm" - where a manipulated and fragile financial system is very pportunisitic f you know who is the Director is for the current stage and know the script - as it gets layed over and over again!
PIMCO 3 EU 0
New Norm Economy is still in play!
As we had mentioned here over and over again regarding how Germany's PIMCO and their voices from US - Mr El Erian and Mr Gross are managing and manipulating global policy makers both plitica & monetary alike - have demontrated they are still strong and know their power.
Greece and Euro is the recent example and will not be the last!
Call it co-ordinated move or opportunistic play - in a capitalistic free market there is no qualms about playing by the book and within operating and legal guidelines!
In a Darwinistic fast moving and internet enabled global capitalism the best way to participate is to observe the BIG DOGS and realign the priorities!
And it is important to identify the difference between who is right and who has the ability make them right by managing power and reach!
As we had mentioned here over and over again regarding how Germany's PIMCO and their voices from US - Mr El Erian and Mr Gross are managing and manipulating global policy makers both plitica & monetary alike - have demontrated they are still strong and know their power.
Greece and Euro is the recent example and will not be the last!
Call it co-ordinated move or opportunistic play - in a capitalistic free market there is no qualms about playing by the book and within operating and legal guidelines!
In a Darwinistic fast moving and internet enabled global capitalism the best way to participate is to observe the BIG DOGS and realign the priorities!
And it is important to identify the difference between who is right and who has the ability make them right by managing power and reach!
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
On the eve of Winter Olympics..the World looks to Greece!
Is Greece too big to FAIL or the gobal economy has just gotten too weak under its underpinnings?
If EURO the seond largest Economic Block and Greece contributing less than 2% of that i shaken and i on the verge of losing its decades worth of consolidation....
If the Global Economy is looking squarely at the Brink AGAIN within a year BECAUSE of GREECE.....which is less than .5% of the gobal economy...
And Finally the whole World knows where Greece is & is certainly very touching just before the Winter Olympics!
If EURO the seond largest Economic Block and Greece contributing less than 2% of that i shaken and i on the verge of losing its decades worth of consolidation....
If the Global Economy is looking squarely at the Brink AGAIN within a year BECAUSE of GREECE.....which is less than .5% of the gobal economy...
And Finally the whole World knows where Greece is & is certainly very touching just before the Winter Olympics!
While Toyota is being spanked....silently the little one that can...!
Whats happening to Honda Motor Company?
There is not a day gone in 2010 without talking and bashing Toyota! It looks like it could have its own segment in new hour if it continues any longer!
While this is going on in main stage...it appears Honda ha been on its own script! Silently recalling thousands and thousands of cars for one thing or the other!
Is this a coincidence or a Japanese syndrome? And do we have more to come from the Rising Sun when its economy and politics is struggling to keep awake!
There is not a day gone in 2010 without talking and bashing Toyota! It looks like it could have its own segment in new hour if it continues any longer!
While this is going on in main stage...it appears Honda ha been on its own script! Silently recalling thousands and thousands of cars for one thing or the other!
Is this a coincidence or a Japanese syndrome? And do we have more to come from the Rising Sun when its economy and politics is struggling to keep awake!
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Is Goldman Sachs on its mending path with the Administration?
The Pay czar proudly crows that Goldman Sachs and Mr Blankfein listened to HIM before announcing the BONUS and salary structure for GS!
First the number stunner then the endorsement from the WhiteHouse Wage Police!
May be, Just Maybe Goldman will be back and it might be a good opportunity to start loading up the common!
First the number stunner then the endorsement from the WhiteHouse Wage Police!
May be, Just Maybe Goldman will be back and it might be a good opportunity to start loading up the common!
Mr Toyoda, Bows to America ...More Importantly to its Consumers!
Slow to react & respond!
But Mr Toyoda showed why he is still serious to maintain Toyota's loyal customer!
Beefing up its lobbyists and Washington presence!
Speaks to the NHTSA chief & plans a visit to Washington! Breaking the Japanese Tradition - keeps addressing the press core in English!
As everyone know bad news never travels alone - they dig up more and more dirt - from relationship with a couple of high ranked DC individuals to isolating union shops to pull their shutters down!
Solutions are still evasive yet the customers are very patient!
Will this be contained within Toyota or become a Japan backlash?
More soothing ad campaign and sending non-unionised labor force to Washington to have a less damaging outcome from the hearings...these are all meat for the press and the are hungry!
May be , Just May be Mr Toyoda will use this as a kitchen sink opportunity and open up the cover and start fresh with the American Consumer and preserve Japan Inc.
But Mr Toyoda showed why he is still serious to maintain Toyota's loyal customer!
Beefing up its lobbyists and Washington presence!
Speaks to the NHTSA chief & plans a visit to Washington! Breaking the Japanese Tradition - keeps addressing the press core in English!
As everyone know bad news never travels alone - they dig up more and more dirt - from relationship with a couple of high ranked DC individuals to isolating union shops to pull their shutters down!
Solutions are still evasive yet the customers are very patient!
Will this be contained within Toyota or become a Japan backlash?
More soothing ad campaign and sending non-unionised labor force to Washington to have a less damaging outcome from the hearings...these are all meat for the press and the are hungry!
May be , Just May be Mr Toyoda will use this as a kitchen sink opportunity and open up the cover and start fresh with the American Consumer and preserve Japan Inc.
J D Powers & Consumer Reports - sleeping on wheels?
The world is watching Toyota mishandle one of the largest recalls by an Auto company in recent memories-
while the Toyota management and their dealer network has been deaf years to the consumer complaints for over a decade - where was the King makers of J D Powers and Consumer Reports?
Is it time for them to be relevant for a change?
Not to adjust their ratings after the disaster an try to be a bit more to the ground hearing what the real complaints are from the consumers?
May be , Just May be this experience will make the necessary changes to bring J D Powers and Consumer Reports more realistic and accurate assessment of the products.
while the Toyota management and their dealer network has been deaf years to the consumer complaints for over a decade - where was the King makers of J D Powers and Consumer Reports?
Is it time for them to be relevant for a change?
Not to adjust their ratings after the disaster an try to be a bit more to the ground hearing what the real complaints are from the consumers?
May be , Just May be this experience will make the necessary changes to bring J D Powers and Consumer Reports more realistic and accurate assessment of the products.
Monday, February 8, 2010
Can Toyota rattle JAPAN Inc?
Is it 1980s all over again?
Is the beginning nightmare back again for Japan Inc?
Thank you to Wal-Mart Japan was a household name offering low quality and low cost products which enabled Japan to seed the foundation to become a Industrial superpower which has become synonymous for Quality and reliability.
Until Now!
We have mentioned for over a couple of years in this blog about how American cars and products are much superior to Japanese products - dollar for dollar.
Now Toyota facing with once in a lifetime crisis is reluctant to respond fast - like a deer in the cross hair of a headlight!
Not moving decisively and quickly will not just affect the fortunes of Mr Toyoda but will have a disruptive effect on Japan Inc!
Is the beginning nightmare back again for Japan Inc?
Thank you to Wal-Mart Japan was a household name offering low quality and low cost products which enabled Japan to seed the foundation to become a Industrial superpower which has become synonymous for Quality and reliability.
Until Now!
We have mentioned for over a couple of years in this blog about how American cars and products are much superior to Japanese products - dollar for dollar.
Now Toyota facing with once in a lifetime crisis is reluctant to respond fast - like a deer in the cross hair of a headlight!
Not moving decisively and quickly will not just affect the fortunes of Mr Toyoda but will have a disruptive effect on Japan Inc!
Germany's PIMCO at it AGAIN!!
While everyne is bashing Goldman Sachs and WallStreet for the recent turmoil and promoting a conspiracy theory to funnel money to GS- the real force bahind the blackmail and a larger beneficiary of Government failure PIMCO is at it AGAIN.
A couple of months back when Mr Summers and his buddies from Washington started downplaying and also discrediting Germany's PIMCO and their opportunisitic Trio of Mr Gross , Mr El Erian and Mr McCully - they were quick to put a campaign- this time the same tactic but different approach.
They started with dumping US assets and moved enmass to German assets and obfourse like last time around are blanketting the media folks with FUD about weaker economies outside US - in effect supporting their German assets ....well well it certainly is working - both in gaining value to German assets which is reflected in the pread between German rates and other weaklings - some of them as high as 300 basis points.
PIIGS and now they have started pushing the haystack that belongs to the Mighty Queen as well.
The war against Wall Street and Goldman is misguided as the real force which is getting away with maintaining volatility and making it more easy for them to make money - the fixed income players - are getting what they wanted - A little fear and respect!
A couple of months back when Mr Summers and his buddies from Washington started downplaying and also discrediting Germany's PIMCO and their opportunisitic Trio of Mr Gross , Mr El Erian and Mr McCully - they were quick to put a campaign- this time the same tactic but different approach.
They started with dumping US assets and moved enmass to German assets and obfourse like last time around are blanketting the media folks with FUD about weaker economies outside US - in effect supporting their German assets ....well well it certainly is working - both in gaining value to German assets which is reflected in the pread between German rates and other weaklings - some of them as high as 300 basis points.
PIIGS and now they have started pushing the haystack that belongs to the Mighty Queen as well.
The war against Wall Street and Goldman is misguided as the real force which is getting away with maintaining volatility and making it more easy for them to make money - the fixed income players - are getting what they wanted - A little fear and respect!
Friday, February 5, 2010
9 Million is no laughing matter...BUT
The cat is finally out!
Possibly the most hated man in the whole Financia Whatever we just experienced!
The most profitable entity and the man responsible for the most efficient business has been hiding for the last couple of months after decaring one of the most profitable years in its history!
Call it conspiracy or ability to manage/influence decision- thats what Management does and thats what they get paid. If you can get things done without having to pay for it- thats even better.
Pfizer jsut spent over $25 Million dollars in lobbying - I am sure it had nothing to do with Healthcare reform which is in the processes of getting watered down....that too in a regime which got elected on zero tolerance on lobbying platform!!
And now back to the most hated CEO - Mr Blankfein of Goldman Sachs - taking home 9 Million in stocks as bonus after tremendous srutiny from the press and politicians alike. Here is a company which was forced to take TARP and bas blamed for taking insurance money for what they were legally owed...still getting shafted because he worked for the most hated and envied form in the country!
Even Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan too much more than that whose numbers were much lower than GS...may be GS waited to see how much JPM gave Mr Dimon and made sure that Mr B got less than that.
Will this remove the cloud over GS - I guess if there was no reason to hate them in the first place and the press and government hated them anyway - I guess one doesn't need anything more to keep hating them!
Still GS did the right thing by playing it low key and trying to accomodate the anger of the people!
Possibly the most hated man in the whole Financia Whatever we just experienced!
The most profitable entity and the man responsible for the most efficient business has been hiding for the last couple of months after decaring one of the most profitable years in its history!
Call it conspiracy or ability to manage/influence decision- thats what Management does and thats what they get paid. If you can get things done without having to pay for it- thats even better.
Pfizer jsut spent over $25 Million dollars in lobbying - I am sure it had nothing to do with Healthcare reform which is in the processes of getting watered down....that too in a regime which got elected on zero tolerance on lobbying platform!!
And now back to the most hated CEO - Mr Blankfein of Goldman Sachs - taking home 9 Million in stocks as bonus after tremendous srutiny from the press and politicians alike. Here is a company which was forced to take TARP and bas blamed for taking insurance money for what they were legally owed...still getting shafted because he worked for the most hated and envied form in the country!
Even Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan too much more than that whose numbers were much lower than GS...may be GS waited to see how much JPM gave Mr Dimon and made sure that Mr B got less than that.
Will this remove the cloud over GS - I guess if there was no reason to hate them in the first place and the press and government hated them anyway - I guess one doesn't need anything more to keep hating them!
Still GS did the right thing by playing it low key and trying to accomodate the anger of the people!
Thursday, February 4, 2010
John Chambers and Cisco: A market Jynx??
Excellent quarter and blowout numbers anywhich way you dice it!
Mr Chambers in several interview was very optimistic and projected not just for the next couple of quarters - but for the next several years CISCO growing mid to high teens! Thats something Mr Chambers hasn't uttered in a while!
To be precise - the last time Mr Chambers was this "Optimistically optimistic" as opposed to his famous caustiouslly optimistic was over a decade ago during the Tech Bubbl when Cisco was growing 30-50%. It took a decade for Mr Chambers to regain the confidence...!
Give the headwind the economy is facing - globally with so much of political uncertainity both in US and Europe one can only hope that Mr Chambers hasn't jynxed the market!
Mr Chambers in several interview was very optimistic and projected not just for the next couple of quarters - but for the next several years CISCO growing mid to high teens! Thats something Mr Chambers hasn't uttered in a while!
To be precise - the last time Mr Chambers was this "Optimistically optimistic" as opposed to his famous caustiouslly optimistic was over a decade ago during the Tech Bubbl when Cisco was growing 30-50%. It took a decade for Mr Chambers to regain the confidence...!
Give the headwind the economy is facing - globally with so much of political uncertainity both in US and Europe one can only hope that Mr Chambers hasn't jynxed the market!
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
US to Americans: Stop Driving Toyota!
Toyota's problem just became a bit more complicated!
US Transportation Secretary issued a strong unprecedented cry to Americans and Toyota- Stop Driving Toyota cars untill fixed! That's over 8 million of them!
This comes at a time when Americn Tax payers own a majority in GM and have a vested interest in American Automobile industry!
This is the strongest the Obama Administration has taken to show how serious it is in defending its interest- be it foreign trade or its consumers & voters.
With China in the cross-wires of Obama as well this might be a very delicate perio for global economy & relationships.
Is this the beginning of a new era in Global economy or just an abberation?
Eitherway it bodes well for American Consumer and Detroit!
US Transportation Secretary issued a strong unprecedented cry to Americans and Toyota- Stop Driving Toyota cars untill fixed! That's over 8 million of them!
This comes at a time when Americn Tax payers own a majority in GM and have a vested interest in American Automobile industry!
This is the strongest the Obama Administration has taken to show how serious it is in defending its interest- be it foreign trade or its consumers & voters.
With China in the cross-wires of Obama as well this might be a very delicate perio for global economy & relationships.
Is this the beginning of a new era in Global economy or just an abberation?
Eitherway it bodes well for American Consumer and Detroit!
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Hewlett Packard - the silent Technology Leader!
The silent Technology leader Hewlett Packard has been at the top of the Technology heap under Mr Mark Hurd without making a splash or noise.
IBM in the last three years has done a wonderful job of moving over 90,000 jobs to India and expanding huge in China - translating that into a phenomenal earnings growth story - all keeping it under the es an scrutiny f their customers and media. During that phase of earnings surge due to low cost labor - the top line has been slow to come.
On the other hand HPQ has been growing its top line both organically and through carefully executed acquisitions. The recent acquisition of EDS bodes well for HPQ's top and bottom line growth. So far both EDS and HPQ has not indulged like IBM to capitalise the ow cost labor markets of India and China.
Now HPQ ha other plans- in addition to traditional off-shore activities - HPQ is trying something new- Moving its Global Logistics and Supply Chain activities to India. In the next 2-3 years the center in Chennai is slated to grow from under 50 people to over 6000!
It is a huge risk thatHPQ is taking by moving the supply chain and logistics group away from corporate America - however this could show a huge boost to the bottom line.
As HPQ starts to capitalise its EDS customers with its ow cost initiatives from India like IBM - that will also add a neat little number to its bottom line.
If we have to just learn from how Wall Street responded to IBM when its off-shore initiative translated into earnings - I am sure HPQ is headed for a substantial increase in its value - given where it is compared to IBM's valuation.
HPQ's 3Com move with Mercury Interactive and EDS bodes well for increased customer penetration and should start showing in its top line starting soon.
IBM in the last three years has done a wonderful job of moving over 90,000 jobs to India and expanding huge in China - translating that into a phenomenal earnings growth story - all keeping it under the es an scrutiny f their customers and media. During that phase of earnings surge due to low cost labor - the top line has been slow to come.
On the other hand HPQ has been growing its top line both organically and through carefully executed acquisitions. The recent acquisition of EDS bodes well for HPQ's top and bottom line growth. So far both EDS and HPQ has not indulged like IBM to capitalise the ow cost labor markets of India and China.
Now HPQ ha other plans- in addition to traditional off-shore activities - HPQ is trying something new- Moving its Global Logistics and Supply Chain activities to India. In the next 2-3 years the center in Chennai is slated to grow from under 50 people to over 6000!
It is a huge risk thatHPQ is taking by moving the supply chain and logistics group away from corporate America - however this could show a huge boost to the bottom line.
As HPQ starts to capitalise its EDS customers with its ow cost initiatives from India like IBM - that will also add a neat little number to its bottom line.
If we have to just learn from how Wall Street responded to IBM when its off-shore initiative translated into earnings - I am sure HPQ is headed for a substantial increase in its value - given where it is compared to IBM's valuation.
HPQ's 3Com move with Mercury Interactive and EDS bodes well for increased customer penetration and should start showing in its top line starting soon.
Toyota misunderstands Pedal to the Metal!
Over several years of fatal accidents and complaints, Toyota finally admits the problem and tries to address what is mushrooming to be a much larger problem that is systemic and intentional in its nature to ignore the safety of the consumers.
Recent revelations from Transportation safety department reveals that Toyota reluctantly agreed to the recent recall after representatives were sent to Japan to explain the legal obligations of Toyota.
Even the current fix looks like a hogwash that might still leave the real problem unaddressed as reports from National Safety Board and documents that is surfacing from various litigations against Toyota.
Mr Toyoda , the chief Executive is reluctant and evasive in addressing the problem.
Is this the beginning of a new era where American consumers will finally understand the value of GM and Ford and the value they stand for? January's sales number from Ford and GM sure do indicate a renewed enthusiasm towards the American built quality cars!
Recent revelations from Transportation safety department reveals that Toyota reluctantly agreed to the recent recall after representatives were sent to Japan to explain the legal obligations of Toyota.
Even the current fix looks like a hogwash that might still leave the real problem unaddressed as reports from National Safety Board and documents that is surfacing from various litigations against Toyota.
Mr Toyoda , the chief Executive is reluctant and evasive in addressing the problem.
Is this the beginning of a new era where American consumers will finally understand the value of GM and Ford and the value they stand for? January's sales number from Ford and GM sure do indicate a renewed enthusiasm towards the American built quality cars!
From Beijing to Bangalore....!
While Healthcare is hiding or hybernating the Administration is on its way to promoting the other agenda- Export , Education & Renewable Energy!
It is evident from the speeches and interviews that are coming from the WhiteHouse and Mr Obama's close circle!
back on his usual Town Hall meetings it is more focused and bold!
In several meetings in the past several week - Mr Obama talks about competing with China , Germany , India & the likes when talking about the agenda!
While putting domestic agenda on a war path to most traditional beliefs and practices - the Administration is not minsing words when it comes to going head to head against China and Europe and low cost economies like India and the likes.
Seems to be working so far - with opposition taking a hesitant approach and letting almost every initiative pass through! With or without Nbr 60!
It is evident from the speeches and interviews that are coming from the WhiteHouse and Mr Obama's close circle!
back on his usual Town Hall meetings it is more focused and bold!
In several meetings in the past several week - Mr Obama talks about competing with China , Germany , India & the likes when talking about the agenda!
While putting domestic agenda on a war path to most traditional beliefs and practices - the Administration is not minsing words when it comes to going head to head against China and Europe and low cost economies like India and the likes.
Seems to be working so far - with opposition taking a hesitant approach and letting almost every initiative pass through! With or without Nbr 60!
V@#k-er Rule....headed in the right direction or misguided?
Is this a Texan style shootout from an Old era posterboy for pre-internet economy or a honest attempt to address a future financial event?
It appears like a misguided attempt at trying to solve a problem too complex to comprehend even for the intellectuals like the Bens & Volcker's of the world!
It might turn out to be another V#@k-ing effort by the Administration showing their anger at the wrong people - as the Investment Bankers would say!
If the V@#k-er rule is aimed at solving the problem of market meltdowns - we certainly are looking at the wrong side of the problem and refusing to see the complexity of global market and the internet enabled distributed micro powers of the world which can distrupt the fragile capital market with very little effort.
With so much money at stake it might have a tough time to pass in Washinton - even if does it will fail to address even the basics of basics in trying to address the capital market's underlying problems.
It appears like a misguided attempt at trying to solve a problem too complex to comprehend even for the intellectuals like the Bens & Volcker's of the world!
It might turn out to be another V#@k-ing effort by the Administration showing their anger at the wrong people - as the Investment Bankers would say!
If the V@#k-er rule is aimed at solving the problem of market meltdowns - we certainly are looking at the wrong side of the problem and refusing to see the complexity of global market and the internet enabled distributed micro powers of the world which can distrupt the fragile capital market with very little effort.
With so much money at stake it might have a tough time to pass in Washinton - even if does it will fail to address even the basics of basics in trying to address the capital market's underlying problems.
NASA: No Moon For you - 10 Years!
National Pride & Go where no man has gone before- well not quite!
Focusing National research in areas that will have immediate impact for American business and people will make absolute sense in these economic times where the deficit has expanded almost perennially & the national competitiveness is waning from the corporate world. With Internet and the likes making it easier for global companies to shrink the time time lag to catch up with innovation an reach of global market - it is absolutely essential to divert every resource to areas of innovation that is of utmost importance to increase competitiveness and marketability globally!
Focusing National research in areas that will have immediate impact for American business and people will make absolute sense in these economic times where the deficit has expanded almost perennially & the national competitiveness is waning from the corporate world. With Internet and the likes making it easier for global companies to shrink the time time lag to catch up with innovation an reach of global market - it is absolutely essential to divert every resource to areas of innovation that is of utmost importance to increase competitiveness and marketability globally!
Angry Administration vs Angry People!
Looking back into history we have a lot of documented episodes of angry people and how Revolutions are born and the results. Some successful and some not.
Very rarely have we come across incidences of Angry Administration! Yes we have seen Angry Rulers who several decades and even centuries back it is documented that such Rulers take their anger mainly on foreign invasions and very limited domestic disruptions.
America showed its displeasure and mind you not 'ANGER' by Mr Obama sweeping to office giving his Administration a super majority enabling his agenda to fast track till Number 60 was lost to a naked Senator from the opposition!
Unemployment is pretty high in recent memories!
People around the country are losing their homes and savings at an alarming rate!
More and more people are seeing their retirement age being pushed away for a while!
Yet the only Angry people around are those surrounding the Obama Administration!
It is difficult to recall from recent history where a White House Administration has surrounded itself with VERY ANGRY individuals who have a very demeaning attitude and outlook when they approach the media or release a statement.
Showing a dramatic shift in Policies is one thing - but Showing ANGER??
It is not sure what an Angry Administration is capable of doing - certainly it will be ugly if an Angry Administration is forced to face an Angry People!
From Axlerod to Summers - everyone is so angry and unfriendly when they are confronted by press. It is not just on FOX- even on MSNBC which has become a pro administration channel - atleast a channel which throws stone at the surging FOX team's popularity!
Mr Obama - It might be good to have a "POLITICAL FACE" and not an angry FACE to the people. After all it does not take a majority of population to tip over only a few percentage! Don't need to send the team to Dale Carnegie atleast take the edge off before meetings and stick to policy agenda - emotionless!
Very rarely have we come across incidences of Angry Administration! Yes we have seen Angry Rulers who several decades and even centuries back it is documented that such Rulers take their anger mainly on foreign invasions and very limited domestic disruptions.
America showed its displeasure and mind you not 'ANGER' by Mr Obama sweeping to office giving his Administration a super majority enabling his agenda to fast track till Number 60 was lost to a naked Senator from the opposition!
Unemployment is pretty high in recent memories!
People around the country are losing their homes and savings at an alarming rate!
More and more people are seeing their retirement age being pushed away for a while!
Yet the only Angry people around are those surrounding the Obama Administration!
It is difficult to recall from recent history where a White House Administration has surrounded itself with VERY ANGRY individuals who have a very demeaning attitude and outlook when they approach the media or release a statement.
Showing a dramatic shift in Policies is one thing - but Showing ANGER??
It is not sure what an Angry Administration is capable of doing - certainly it will be ugly if an Angry Administration is forced to face an Angry People!
From Axlerod to Summers - everyone is so angry and unfriendly when they are confronted by press. It is not just on FOX- even on MSNBC which has become a pro administration channel - atleast a channel which throws stone at the surging FOX team's popularity!
Mr Obama - It might be good to have a "POLITICAL FACE" and not an angry FACE to the people. After all it does not take a majority of population to tip over only a few percentage! Don't need to send the team to Dale Carnegie atleast take the edge off before meetings and stick to policy agenda - emotionless!
Monday, February 1, 2010
Kudos to Mr Kudlow!
Watching Mr Kudlow respectfully drill Mr Paulson was unbeleivble!
On Economy's near Collapse...
On faltering to respond....
On change of course within months of denial?
On Dollar for Dollar backing for Goldman Sachs from AIG...!
Amazing interview and teh closest one can get a "Direct" answer..squirmng/dancing on the Goldman Issue....
Great Work Mr Kudlow- Keep up the good work!
On Economy's near Collapse...
On faltering to respond....
On change of course within months of denial?
On Dollar for Dollar backing for Goldman Sachs from AIG...!
Amazing interview and teh closest one can get a "Direct" answer..squirmng/dancing on the Goldman Issue....
Great Work Mr Kudlow- Keep up the good work!
British Screwed US!
Mr Paulson's rederick is quite unusual given how controlled and patient he was during the crisis!
Darling & the Queen's Army of soldiers - like in 1812 tried to burn down the Americans! Only this time they burried Lehman when Wall Street and American Capitalistic Economy was gettng uprooted!
During the last two years the British Media - Financial Times and The Economist have been outright critical of Americn capitalism and Washinton's excess - contributing their share to an already shaky markets. And ofcour WSJ joining the ranks of Fox only made it easier for the British Media to gain more popularity in the global market!
Now The Time of London joins their brethren- Shaking Goldman Sachs with its own boat load of rumours.
May Be , Just May Be - there is more to what the English words meant when Mr Paulson said that British Screwed US!
Darling & the Queen's Army of soldiers - like in 1812 tried to burn down the Americans! Only this time they burried Lehman when Wall Street and American Capitalistic Economy was gettng uprooted!
During the last two years the British Media - Financial Times and The Economist have been outright critical of Americn capitalism and Washinton's excess - contributing their share to an already shaky markets. And ofcour WSJ joining the ranks of Fox only made it easier for the British Media to gain more popularity in the global market!
Now The Time of London joins their brethren- Shaking Goldman Sachs with its own boat load of rumours.
May Be , Just May Be - there is more to what the English words meant when Mr Paulson said that British Screwed US!
Apple and its Dominance~
Call him Sadist - May be!
When Steve Jobs released the best positioned and marketed iPhone on live Internet he pulled the quote for Research In Motion and showed the world how their share price was crashing!
Now with iPad in an interview with Wall Street Journal's Mr Mosberg Mr Jobs predicted forcefully that Amazon's price advantage will disappear! And it Did And unlike RIM Amazon tried to bully the publisher and bowed with its tail tucked behind quickly - And saw its Share on a tailpin at one point dropping more than $14! If Amazon were to learn from Research In Motion - Mr Bezo's should take a different tatic than the one he just took and reversed!Both in trying to flex its muscle and also trying a closed and proprietary technology with little to show for inway of innovation! Yes Apple is no sait - but Mr Jobs seem to know where the consumer's heart is - atleast the elitist type!
RIM is still trying to recover since the release of iPhone and has a very bleak future given iPhone's continued popularity and Apple's bulldozing CEO!
Recent rumours about Mr Job's anger on Google is certainly interesting given where the technologies of both the companies are headed!
When Steve Jobs released the best positioned and marketed iPhone on live Internet he pulled the quote for Research In Motion and showed the world how their share price was crashing!
Now with iPad in an interview with Wall Street Journal's Mr Mosberg Mr Jobs predicted forcefully that Amazon's price advantage will disappear! And it Did And unlike RIM Amazon tried to bully the publisher and bowed with its tail tucked behind quickly - And saw its Share on a tailpin at one point dropping more than $14! If Amazon were to learn from Research In Motion - Mr Bezo's should take a different tatic than the one he just took and reversed!Both in trying to flex its muscle and also trying a closed and proprietary technology with little to show for inway of innovation! Yes Apple is no sait - but Mr Jobs seem to know where the consumer's heart is - atleast the elitist type!
RIM is still trying to recover since the release of iPhone and has a very bleak future given iPhone's continued popularity and Apple's bulldozing CEO!
Recent rumours about Mr Job's anger on Google is certainly interesting given where the technologies of both the companies are headed!
Friday, January 29, 2010
Greecing the European Economy!
The recent turmaoil seen in Euro and EU due to Greece and its escalating fiscal crisis is just the tip of the iceberg.
If an economy which is just 2% of the Eurozone and not balancing its budget can rattle the entire Eurozone and bring Euro to a near collapse - it only shows the fragile nature of the entity called Euro and how structurally weak and thoughtless it is.
We have mentioned here several times i the past how Euro is structured to benefit Germany and France and maybe Italy at the expense of the weaker economies.
The weaklings and the rules to stick to the Union makes it easy for the Bond Vigilantes to manipulate currencies and interst rates.
From Moodys to Fitch and other rating agencies - who have absolutely no clue as to what happens in a local economy try to rattle the credit market by their upgrades and downgrades - and brings an entire zone to its knees.
This is just an indication of how delicate the internet global economy has become and how inadequate the current agencies and thought leaders are in trying to define the rules for the trade!
If an economy which is just 2% of the Eurozone and not balancing its budget can rattle the entire Eurozone and bring Euro to a near collapse - it only shows the fragile nature of the entity called Euro and how structurally weak and thoughtless it is.
We have mentioned here several times i the past how Euro is structured to benefit Germany and France and maybe Italy at the expense of the weaker economies.
The weaklings and the rules to stick to the Union makes it easy for the Bond Vigilantes to manipulate currencies and interst rates.
From Moodys to Fitch and other rating agencies - who have absolutely no clue as to what happens in a local economy try to rattle the credit market by their upgrades and downgrades - and brings an entire zone to its knees.
This is just an indication of how delicate the internet global economy has become and how inadequate the current agencies and thought leaders are in trying to define the rules for the trade!
Hot Summers in Freezing Davos!
Summers raised a warning flag from Davos - responding to the upside surprise to the better than expected GDP growth in USA.
With Financial Regulation on tap in the midst of a lost NBR 60 - the Administration is more agressive in its fight againt Wall Street.
With Geithner and Bernanke uncertainity fading in the backdrop - it will be interesting to see how the Federal reserve and the White House handle the exit policies without disrupting the cart.
During the crisis the Fixed Income players - both private and Foreign States managed to have an upper hand. The next couple of quarters if the Federal Reserve and the Administration wants to win the War against the Fixed Income players - who are very brutal and powerful & are desperately needed in thesse times of increasing dependence of their support for the expanding Government Spending, it is imperative that Mr Summers and the Administration does not push Wall Street and the trading Gamblers down the toilet - as doing such an act will only strengthen the hands of the Fixed Income Players resulting in a run on the US treasury!
With Financial Regulation on tap in the midst of a lost NBR 60 - the Administration is more agressive in its fight againt Wall Street.
With Geithner and Bernanke uncertainity fading in the backdrop - it will be interesting to see how the Federal reserve and the White House handle the exit policies without disrupting the cart.
During the crisis the Fixed Income players - both private and Foreign States managed to have an upper hand. The next couple of quarters if the Federal Reserve and the Administration wants to win the War against the Fixed Income players - who are very brutal and powerful & are desperately needed in thesse times of increasing dependence of their support for the expanding Government Spending, it is imperative that Mr Summers and the Administration does not push Wall Street and the trading Gamblers down the toilet - as doing such an act will only strengthen the hands of the Fixed Income Players resulting in a run on the US treasury!
US Unemployment to reach 7.2 end of 2010
Optimism or just throwing a dart in the dark?
Can the gut feeling be more accurate than the economic forecasts and continualy morphing Economists & market movers?
With government waging war at the wrong set of manipulators would this market support an expansionary labor market?
With Technology leading the way Is America ready to start exporting? With renewable and Manufacturing contributing for local and global economy growth story; and less conflicts between global policy makers contributing to a stable currency environment?
Can the Fed easing its pedal on QE and the Governement stop bailing out in this non-supportivecredit market lead to an unpredicatable market stability?
Is it necessary that the answers to the above have to be a resounding YES to support the labor market?
The answers to the above is YES!
More than that at the end of the year no matter what the maret manipulators do - be it the credit market hawks and wannabes or the Wall Street Gamblers - the labor market wll start expanding with unemployment coming down to 7.2%
Can the gut feeling be more accurate than the economic forecasts and continualy morphing Economists & market movers?
With government waging war at the wrong set of manipulators would this market support an expansionary labor market?
With Technology leading the way Is America ready to start exporting? With renewable and Manufacturing contributing for local and global economy growth story; and less conflicts between global policy makers contributing to a stable currency environment?
Can the Fed easing its pedal on QE and the Governement stop bailing out in this non-supportivecredit market lead to an unpredicatable market stability?
Is it necessary that the answers to the above have to be a resounding YES to support the labor market?
The answers to the above is YES!
More than that at the end of the year no matter what the maret manipulators do - be it the credit market hawks and wannabes or the Wall Street Gamblers - the labor market wll start expanding with unemployment coming down to 7.2%
Pandit's Citigroup - time to backup and load them!
Citigroup and Mr Pandit has been shoved into the Dog House for a longer period compared to his peers from JP Morgan , Bank of America and Wells Fargo.
As the developing & emerging markets start to migrate towards higher growth period - the bank that is well positioned to capitaize is Citigroup.
As a recent report revealed Citigroup is the only Bank that has the techology and reach to manage diverse and distributed commercial transactions for immmediate multiple currency transactions - globally and more Government agencies and Multinationals rely on Citigroup for their global reach and needs.
Unlike other Retail banking brands Citigroup commands a premium name in every market that it is in Outside USA- helpin git to attract talents and premium clients without too much of acquisition cost.
With Mr Pandit hiding behing the sceen for the better part of his new job - has chosen Davos to step out into the Cold & brutal audience!
All these bde well for Citigroup going forward- It has limited downside & a tremendous upside for a long term investment.
As the developing & emerging markets start to migrate towards higher growth period - the bank that is well positioned to capitaize is Citigroup.
As a recent report revealed Citigroup is the only Bank that has the techology and reach to manage diverse and distributed commercial transactions for immmediate multiple currency transactions - globally and more Government agencies and Multinationals rely on Citigroup for their global reach and needs.
Unlike other Retail banking brands Citigroup commands a premium name in every market that it is in Outside USA- helpin git to attract talents and premium clients without too much of acquisition cost.
With Mr Pandit hiding behing the sceen for the better part of his new job - has chosen Davos to step out into the Cold & brutal audience!
All these bde well for Citigroup going forward- It has limited downside & a tremendous upside for a long term investment.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Supreme Court Decision on Corporate Campaign Sponsorship!
Coming of the most expensive election year when the whole world was in the middle of a new Catastrophic Financial melt down- the decision by Supreme Court on Corporate sponsorship on election is stirring up a storm of its own.
Mr Obama raised over $750 Million for the campaign - Even Senator McCAin raised over $250 Million for his own campaign.
The likes of George Soros and Rupert Murdoch spent millions directly & otherwise to support their personal cause and tried to influence the outcome.
Money and Support finds its way to the party and candidate no matter what the law is or rules are.
It is amazing to know that a $200k plus job attracts over a Billion dollars!
If nothing else we might have a Banner from Nike in the Capitol Hill with a commercial break for Pepsi - between meaningless debates, And may be the dress code will be a bit more colorful & appealing with GM and Toyota vying for the coveted wardrobe for the party - Unless of course the next NFL ruling from Supreme Court changes the scope of branding and licensing of local seat!
May Be, Just May Be - this decision by the Supreme court will bring more legitimate transparency to where the money is coming- without looking for loop holes or carpets to hide!
Mr Obama raised over $750 Million for the campaign - Even Senator McCAin raised over $250 Million for his own campaign.
The likes of George Soros and Rupert Murdoch spent millions directly & otherwise to support their personal cause and tried to influence the outcome.
Money and Support finds its way to the party and candidate no matter what the law is or rules are.
It is amazing to know that a $200k plus job attracts over a Billion dollars!
If nothing else we might have a Banner from Nike in the Capitol Hill with a commercial break for Pepsi - between meaningless debates, And may be the dress code will be a bit more colorful & appealing with GM and Toyota vying for the coveted wardrobe for the party - Unless of course the next NFL ruling from Supreme Court changes the scope of branding and licensing of local seat!
May Be, Just May Be - this decision by the Supreme court will bring more legitimate transparency to where the money is coming- without looking for loop holes or carpets to hide!
Toyota - Please bring Transparency to consumers!
8 Million cars recalled and the blame is still hunting for a home!
It is a shame to watch interview after interview on TVs - where they vehemently deny what is happening to the quality and started pointing to GM and other cars when when asked about why Toyota failed to acknowledge the problem which firt surface over two years back.
We have pointed in one of our earlier article talking about Ameican Automotve Industry and how GM and Ford are twice the value dollar for dollar and the Management of Detroit is mroe consumer aware and conscious than the likes of Hondas and Toyotas.
The current episode of Toyota's late reaction to a serious problem is just one such incidence.
Competition is great and open market capitalism always provides what the market can absorb and support- and this event may not bring down Toyota or its market conviction about its product - However this will open up the closed eyes of the Media and Consumers and make them slowly understand the better products that Detroit brings to the market!
It is a shame to watch interview after interview on TVs - where they vehemently deny what is happening to the quality and started pointing to GM and other cars when when asked about why Toyota failed to acknowledge the problem which firt surface over two years back.
We have pointed in one of our earlier article talking about Ameican Automotve Industry and how GM and Ford are twice the value dollar for dollar and the Management of Detroit is mroe consumer aware and conscious than the likes of Hondas and Toyotas.
The current episode of Toyota's late reaction to a serious problem is just one such incidence.
Competition is great and open market capitalism always provides what the market can absorb and support- and this event may not bring down Toyota or its market conviction about its product - However this will open up the closed eyes of the Media and Consumers and make them slowly understand the better products that Detroit brings to the market!
Bernanke Fiddled while the Market was on Fire!
Interesting week!
A congressman talking about Financial Melt down and comparing it to an elaborate interception in the final minutes with a Monday night quarterbacking analogy to the AIG bailout: First of all - Are we admitting that its an Interception?
Geithner defending his image and intelligence in front of a live global audience - talks about Fed being the Only Fire Station in town during the Financial Meltdown & I Guess he is talking about Ben being the Sheriff in town?
Mr Paulson - the Man with Bazooka - talking about Armageddon if they didn't do what they did with the Bazooka - all to defend his Golden legacy & defending the new Sheriff in Town & his side kick!
And now the Sheriff fiddling when there was a towering Inferno...from Mr Shelby!
May be we don't need another Avatar to make it more FULL & RICH in experience!
From Greenspan to PIMCO everyone supporting the sheriff! And ofcourse a resounding support for the interception from the likes of Mr Buffet & the other Wall Street beneficiaries!
Whether Geithner gets fired or Bernanke get a job with the Germans like Mr Greenspan - one thing is clear - it certainly is entertaining to watch Monday Night Bickering!
A congressman talking about Financial Melt down and comparing it to an elaborate interception in the final minutes with a Monday night quarterbacking analogy to the AIG bailout: First of all - Are we admitting that its an Interception?
Geithner defending his image and intelligence in front of a live global audience - talks about Fed being the Only Fire Station in town during the Financial Meltdown & I Guess he is talking about Ben being the Sheriff in town?
Mr Paulson - the Man with Bazooka - talking about Armageddon if they didn't do what they did with the Bazooka - all to defend his Golden legacy & defending the new Sheriff in Town & his side kick!
And now the Sheriff fiddling when there was a towering Inferno...from Mr Shelby!
May be we don't need another Avatar to make it more FULL & RICH in experience!
From Greenspan to PIMCO everyone supporting the sheriff! And ofcourse a resounding support for the interception from the likes of Mr Buffet & the other Wall Street beneficiaries!
Whether Geithner gets fired or Bernanke get a job with the Germans like Mr Greenspan - one thing is clear - it certainly is entertaining to watch Monday Night Bickering!
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Its Davos Time Again!
Its Davos time again!
People who made a killing the last couple of years - be it via Bonus or pure betting all gather to show their might! And to tell the rest of the world what to do to prevent the next meltdown!
The message is the same - the great divide between the Soros and the Roubini types from the rest.
Ironically the noise from the fixed income is more loud this time around - from the likes of PIMCO.....betting against the Developed economies. For a change we see Japan in the wrong side - and it appears that US might get out of the Dog house - atleast temporarily!
With S&P downgrading and threatening Japan - after twenty years of so called lost decades - PIMCO betting agaist Japan - Maybe its time to look into Japan!
People who made a killing the last couple of years - be it via Bonus or pure betting all gather to show their might! And to tell the rest of the world what to do to prevent the next meltdown!
The message is the same - the great divide between the Soros and the Roubini types from the rest.
Ironically the noise from the fixed income is more loud this time around - from the likes of PIMCO.....betting against the Developed economies. For a change we see Japan in the wrong side - and it appears that US might get out of the Dog house - atleast temporarily!
With S&P downgrading and threatening Japan - after twenty years of so called lost decades - PIMCO betting agaist Japan - Maybe its time to look into Japan!
Monday, January 25, 2010
Is Amazon a Steal at this price?
Looking at all teh tech numbers and looking back at the Holiday season I think the market has punished Amzon for all the wrong reasons - including a pending threat from Apple's new i-Whatever!
With a steep correction in the last couple of weeks - Amazon looks very cheap, atleast from where the earnings will be compared to etimates.
This past Holiday season Amazon enjoyed the best season for Kindle! The best selling gift from Amazon - thats a major achievement given what else one can buy from Amazon and the price at which Kindle is sold.
Also this is one of the few Holidays when Amazon did not discount compared to other retailers- infact they were a bit pricier that most discount retailers.Stil people loaded up on Amazon carts more than other retailers.
Amazon will blow away the numbers and it will be a big jump from where we are today- 118-120~
With a steep correction in the last couple of weeks - Amazon looks very cheap, atleast from where the earnings will be compared to etimates.
This past Holiday season Amazon enjoyed the best season for Kindle! The best selling gift from Amazon - thats a major achievement given what else one can buy from Amazon and the price at which Kindle is sold.
Also this is one of the few Holidays when Amazon did not discount compared to other retailers- infact they were a bit pricier that most discount retailers.Stil people loaded up on Amazon carts more than other retailers.
Amazon will blow away the numbers and it will be a big jump from where we are today- 118-120~
Wall Street and Apple!
Q after Q same story!
Wall Street Analysts missing their estimates - not by a penny or two;
not by a nickel or two!
not by a dime or two!
Looks like well Over THREE BILLION Dollars in their revenue - Not Annual number...But Quarterly!
Spreadsheets and Harvard MBAs - still seem to struggle to throw their darts at estimates! If they are relying more on the company guidance and not their proprietary models and extensive reach into the markets and supply chain- shouldnt they just hire reporters and not analysts?
May Be , Just May be That way they can also blow away their earnings!!
Wall Street Analysts missing their estimates - not by a penny or two;
not by a nickel or two!
not by a dime or two!
Looks like well Over THREE BILLION Dollars in their revenue - Not Annual number...But Quarterly!
Spreadsheets and Harvard MBAs - still seem to struggle to throw their darts at estimates! If they are relying more on the company guidance and not their proprietary models and extensive reach into the markets and supply chain- shouldnt they just hire reporters and not analysts?
May Be , Just May be That way they can also blow away their earnings!!
Where is Dollar Headed?
Structurally Broke!
Mr O and his economic team likes export market and indirectly supporting a weak Dollar!
All Dollar bears have been shouting for over a decade that Dollar is broke and the US economy cannt support the debt or the valuation!
PIMCO and Bill Gross emptied their US treasuries and moved to German Bunde.
Suddenly the tide is shifting - including PIMCO!
The commodity king Roger claims he is long on Dollar though he is a bear on Dollar!
I guess Dallar Bear does not mean Weak Dollar! PIMCO says the Dollar BEar market might be ending!
Euro and Yen seem to like being in the lower band as they still would like to support their export economy and compete with Yuan!
Looks like the beginning of a long Bull market for Dollar!
Mr O and his economic team likes export market and indirectly supporting a weak Dollar!
All Dollar bears have been shouting for over a decade that Dollar is broke and the US economy cannt support the debt or the valuation!
PIMCO and Bill Gross emptied their US treasuries and moved to German Bunde.
Suddenly the tide is shifting - including PIMCO!
The commodity king Roger claims he is long on Dollar though he is a bear on Dollar!
I guess Dallar Bear does not mean Weak Dollar! PIMCO says the Dollar BEar market might be ending!
Euro and Yen seem to like being in the lower band as they still would like to support their export economy and compete with Yuan!
Looks like the beginning of a long Bull market for Dollar!
Saturday, January 23, 2010
White House Dialing for Help!
The Ben & Geithner show got rattled by the White House!
The shakeup certainly brought drama to the already fragile Wall Street Dynamics. To spice it up for the week end - White House and its abled staff made the shaky Senators and Congressmen to flip flop their stand and opinions in minutes and hours at best.
Of course the Cool Hand Ben couldn't respond quickly but his fellow from the Federal Reserve came quick to protect its turf. Mr G blinked with sudden scripted support for the reform while the mumbling a different tune behind the camera.
Come what may - the Independence nature of American Federal Reserve might be close to getting tainted when a heavy handed Vockler bulldozes his 20th century views onto an already unsure capital market.
The shakeup certainly brought drama to the already fragile Wall Street Dynamics. To spice it up for the week end - White House and its abled staff made the shaky Senators and Congressmen to flip flop their stand and opinions in minutes and hours at best.
Of course the Cool Hand Ben couldn't respond quickly but his fellow from the Federal Reserve came quick to protect its turf. Mr G blinked with sudden scripted support for the reform while the mumbling a different tune behind the camera.
Come what may - the Independence nature of American Federal Reserve might be close to getting tainted when a heavy handed Vockler bulldozes his 20th century views onto an already unsure capital market.
Friday, January 22, 2010
Financial Reform Shakeup! The value of Number 60!
Can Number 60 be so valuable?
What a difference a few days has made since MA was lost! The Kennedy owned seat- lost?
Wall Street is scrambling for cover! A few Trillion dollars evaporated.
Cool Hand Ben is looking for cover! Everyone from Greenspan to a his Federal Reserve cronies from the past to the present protecting the Depression era Expert who let his guard down during the speculative time and used his expertise to stabilize it! Well atleast thats what the street is being painted with now!
72 Hours does make some difference!
Timothy G - seems to be heading for the Dog House as well - A sudden rumour about his calls to GS , JPM and Mr Buffet on the of AIG distribution of Taxpayer money!
Not to overlook that both these guys lost the prestigious position next to Mr Obama -to Mr Volcker and his namesake reform Rule - and ofcourse Mr Summers is still hiding in the backroom waiting for a chance to express his anger.
After doing God's Work Mr Blankfein is wondering if the new campus for Goldman will be a Heaven or Hell - as Number 85 Broadway seems to be nothing but Hell for him since he took possession!
Could all these be happening because of the covetted Number 60?
From NY to London people are offering differing angles to the same lost Senate seat from MA - Number 60 as the reason for the Obama Crusade to demolish Wall Street & their puppets!
If the changes and the fallout from that is due to losing the Super Majority status - we are certainly headed in the wrong direction and this time around printing money will not help in reversing the tide!
What a difference a few days has made since MA was lost! The Kennedy owned seat- lost?
Wall Street is scrambling for cover! A few Trillion dollars evaporated.
Cool Hand Ben is looking for cover! Everyone from Greenspan to a his Federal Reserve cronies from the past to the present protecting the Depression era Expert who let his guard down during the speculative time and used his expertise to stabilize it! Well atleast thats what the street is being painted with now!
72 Hours does make some difference!
Timothy G - seems to be heading for the Dog House as well - A sudden rumour about his calls to GS , JPM and Mr Buffet on the of AIG distribution of Taxpayer money!
Not to overlook that both these guys lost the prestigious position next to Mr Obama -to Mr Volcker and his namesake reform Rule - and ofcourse Mr Summers is still hiding in the backroom waiting for a chance to express his anger.
After doing God's Work Mr Blankfein is wondering if the new campus for Goldman will be a Heaven or Hell - as Number 85 Broadway seems to be nothing but Hell for him since he took possession!
Could all these be happening because of the covetted Number 60?
From NY to London people are offering differing angles to the same lost Senate seat from MA - Number 60 as the reason for the Obama Crusade to demolish Wall Street & their puppets!
If the changes and the fallout from that is due to losing the Super Majority status - we are certainly headed in the wrong direction and this time around printing money will not help in reversing the tide!
Who is Wall Street fighting?
Is Wall Street fighting Obama and Washington or the real force that is winning from behind is the Fixed Income Players whose time has been overdue? And a taste of their force and power came during the Financial Whatever of 2008-09
A byte for Apple and Mr Jobs
Seven things that could make the pending release of Apple Whatever a game changer:
- Always On anywhere Internet connection for FREE or a very very nominal fee
- Subsidized price of the device by a non-internet/Telco sponsor
- Focus on Education and Technical publications with Schools & University focus
- Ability to wirelessly connect to any TV or Displays
- Loaded with Free Newspapers/journals/premium blogs
- new social offering & cloud based gaming
- free cloud based productivity & consumer applications
- Always On anywhere Internet connection for FREE or a very very nominal fee
- Subsidized price of the device by a non-internet/Telco sponsor
- Focus on Education and Technical publications with Schools & University focus
- Ability to wirelessly connect to any TV or Displays
- Loaded with Free Newspapers/journals/premium blogs
- new social offering & cloud based gaming
- free cloud based productivity & consumer applications
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Warren Buffet- the comeback!
After hiding for a better part of last year when Mr Buffet's caustic bet on Market almost bankrupted his 30 year legacy & reputation- He is back on TV for a overkill.
From his vocal opposition to Kraft & support of Goldman Sach's Management and business!
And his opposition to the Obama Tax on the Financial Bonus saga!
Barron's recent article on Mr Buffet's dual standard when it comes to buying with Stocks only demonstrates hi opportunistic nature which made Berkshire where it is today - both in the investor's mind and media audiences.
From his vocal opposition to Kraft & support of Goldman Sach's Management and business!
And his opposition to the Obama Tax on the Financial Bonus saga!
Barron's recent article on Mr Buffet's dual standard when it comes to buying with Stocks only demonstrates hi opportunistic nature which made Berkshire where it is today - both in the investor's mind and media audiences.
Conan's Anger and Rating- Foxy for his Good?
The recent booting of Conan from the Tonight lineup and his sudden anger directed at NBC on Live TV only shows Conan's fading popularity!
Yes - the recent rating for Conan has gone up since the fight started- With competing channels adding fuel to the fire.
Yes - Conan looks & sounds funny when he spits venom at NBC management and Leno
Yes - its interesting to watch CBS, ABC and Fox showing over and over again Conan's not so professional behaviour on-air comments!
The recent murmur from Fox and WSJ that reports Conan's lack of appeal for a late night gig & their hesitation to bring him on at Fox shows how ineffective Conan is on the slot that has been the market leader for decades.
It is a shame that he can walk with several million dollars after almost grounding a premium progamming slot for late night.
Conan's audience might overlap with Letterman's at best and moving to Fox might steal some of Letterman's audience keeping Leno and The Tonight Show less vulnerable to dilution.
Yes - the recent rating for Conan has gone up since the fight started- With competing channels adding fuel to the fire.
Yes - Conan looks & sounds funny when he spits venom at NBC management and Leno
Yes - its interesting to watch CBS, ABC and Fox showing over and over again Conan's not so professional behaviour on-air comments!
The recent murmur from Fox and WSJ that reports Conan's lack of appeal for a late night gig & their hesitation to bring him on at Fox shows how ineffective Conan is on the slot that has been the market leader for decades.
It is a shame that he can walk with several million dollars after almost grounding a premium progamming slot for late night.
Conan's audience might overlap with Letterman's at best and moving to Fox might steal some of Letterman's audience keeping Leno and The Tonight Show less vulnerable to dilution.
Mr Brown and people of MA send a message?
Is Brown NO 41? or just the beginning and we have more to come beyond the Republican claims?
Still claiming Independence status and everyone scrambling to put a banner behind him might be premature and myopic.
With Dodd and the likes vacating the replacement of Keneedy by Mr Brown could be an indication of what to expect in teh Senate and Congress in 2010 and beyond- a faster change of veterans by young, ambitious and opinionated individuals who may defy party politics and legacy leaderships.
Still claiming Independence status and everyone scrambling to put a banner behind him might be premature and myopic.
With Dodd and the likes vacating the replacement of Keneedy by Mr Brown could be an indication of what to expect in teh Senate and Congress in 2010 and beyond- a faster change of veterans by young, ambitious and opinionated individuals who may defy party politics and legacy leaderships.
The Great Divide?
Apple courting Balmer and Bing!
A Happy marriage with Google appears to be headed towards a real ugly Divorce!
Unlike any in the past - this battle for the future of computing could possibly divide Silicon Valley and bring Microsoft the much needed win to demonstrate its capability to dominate the Tech market.
Microsoft has dne it in the past by its marketing and monetary provess - and this time it aint going to be different.
Could finally bring a winning streak going for Mr Balmer who has been struggling to gain a photo op with Wall Street and Main Street alike.
Hopefully - Apple has learned its lessons from the past and will ink a deal which is more solid and steal proof!
A Happy marriage with Google appears to be headed towards a real ugly Divorce!
Unlike any in the past - this battle for the future of computing could possibly divide Silicon Valley and bring Microsoft the much needed win to demonstrate its capability to dominate the Tech market.
Microsoft has dne it in the past by its marketing and monetary provess - and this time it aint going to be different.
Could finally bring a winning streak going for Mr Balmer who has been struggling to gain a photo op with Wall Street and Main Street alike.
Hopefully - Apple has learned its lessons from the past and will ink a deal which is more solid and steal proof!
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Bair and Shapiro on Blame Game!
Bair and Shapiro blaming Wall Street compensation and pay package for the reent Financial Whatever!
Joining the popular sentiment?
Or just Wall Street Envy like every other Individual?
Joining the popular sentiment?
Or just Wall Street Envy like every other Individual?
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Google's China Exit: Value based or Just give up after 4 Years?
Google's exit of China - very politicised and pubicised in Media circle appears to be a very noble thing to do: To tand for its Philosophical values!
Hidden behind the The Great Wallo fo Google might be a very different Business decision - After 4 years of spending mone an trying to bulldoze the largest Internet Market for no avail - it is time to call it Quits?
The revenue and market share is very insignificant for Google - not because of sensorship but because of competition and lack of innovation and understandng of the local user base.
Yes it is Brave to make a Political statement while exiting a losing market when competition has a strong hold on the market!
Hidden behind the The Great Wallo fo Google might be a very different Business decision - After 4 years of spending mone an trying to bulldoze the largest Internet Market for no avail - it is time to call it Quits?
The revenue and market share is very insignificant for Google - not because of sensorship but because of competition and lack of innovation and understandng of the local user base.
Yes it is Brave to make a Political statement while exiting a losing market when competition has a strong hold on the market!
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
The New Transparency....!
Federal Reserve is Blocking relleaesing information related to Bail outs!
Goldman Sachs wants to Blocks releasing inforamtion related to Bank Pay and Bonuses!
NY Federal Blocked AIG from releasing distribution of Fed Bail out and Sswap details!
On and On and On....!
Goldman Sachs wants to Blocks releasing inforamtion related to Bank Pay and Bonuses!
NY Federal Blocked AIG from releasing distribution of Fed Bail out and Sswap details!
On and On and On....!
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Sony is Finally Ready for the World!
Sony under Sir Howard has been slowy but steadily making changes which to a large extent has escaped teh main stream media!
After a long string of losing battles from Mobile Music to Cell Phones to eReader it has started making progress with its sweeping victory in the Blu Ray market and a steady recovery in the Play Station & Television market.
Given their control of creative contents and the new products in R&D - it appears that they are ready for the consumers - ONCE AGAIN!
Sony wil be a BIG WINNER in the next Decade when content and usability becomes the main thing in consumers mind - as Technology goes beyond Innovation!
After a long string of losing battles from Mobile Music to Cell Phones to eReader it has started making progress with its sweeping victory in the Blu Ray market and a steady recovery in the Play Station & Television market.
Given their control of creative contents and the new products in R&D - it appears that they are ready for the consumers - ONCE AGAIN!
Sony wil be a BIG WINNER in the next Decade when content and usability becomes the main thing in consumers mind - as Technology goes beyond Innovation!
Danger! Google , Andy Rubin & the Nexus!
Google and Nexus One tried to steal the CES show!
However what was apparent from the CES: Whats on people's mind coming out of CES is not what Balmer had to say or Google had to offer - it is what Apple & Steve Jobs will do!
Listening to Google and Andy Rubin reminds me of the arrogance of Balmer and the Redmond gang which typically lags way behind in innovation but bull dozes in imitation and intimidation.
Rubin's response when asked about lack of Customer Support on Nexus One - shows why Danger never made it main stream and why Nexus One will go the same way unless Google dramatically changes the way they do business with consumers!
For now - Steve Jobs and the Innovation engine has the runway clear from all srt of obstacles- as long as Microsoft , Google and the likes keep ding what they have been doing - Lack in Innovation and Creativity!
However what was apparent from the CES: Whats on people's mind coming out of CES is not what Balmer had to say or Google had to offer - it is what Apple & Steve Jobs will do!
Listening to Google and Andy Rubin reminds me of the arrogance of Balmer and the Redmond gang which typically lags way behind in innovation but bull dozes in imitation and intimidation.
Rubin's response when asked about lack of Customer Support on Nexus One - shows why Danger never made it main stream and why Nexus One will go the same way unless Google dramatically changes the way they do business with consumers!
For now - Steve Jobs and the Innovation engine has the runway clear from all srt of obstacles- as long as Microsoft , Google and the likes keep ding what they have been doing - Lack in Innovation and Creativity!
Friday, January 8, 2010
The New Norm Economy from PIMCO has listening ears?
PIMCo team has been consistent in pounding the table and relentlessly using the air to propogate their dis-interest in hearing the Obamanomics Mantra while spreading the bias towards Bund!
Well, Well...What do you Know!
A normal Friday followed by a ubnormal Thursday- Yes From AIG and Geithner showing their hidden agenda's from the past! And the Unemployment report showing not so glamourous trend!
PIMC is quick on its heel to tout the New Norm....and Whitehouse talking Debt reduction and deficit cutting and withdrawing Enttlement programs...On a Bad Friday????
May be the War is not over yet and the Bond Kings still CAN control the policy makers!
Well, Well...What do you Know!
A normal Friday followed by a ubnormal Thursday- Yes From AIG and Geithner showing their hidden agenda's from the past! And the Unemployment report showing not so glamourous trend!
PIMC is quick on its heel to tout the New Norm....and Whitehouse talking Debt reduction and deficit cutting and withdrawing Enttlement programs...On a Bad Friday????
May be the War is not over yet and the Bond Kings still CAN control the policy makers!
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Year of the Munis!
Over 30 states are figting to bridge the budget gap!
Over $450 Billion to enter the market this year!
From California to New York - deficits are translating into higher taxes and benefit cuts.
With the credit easing up in the Corporate debt market - this year will be flooded by the States on top of what the Treasury & Fed are doing....Illinois going global to raise money...A repeat of Iceland?
Over $450 Billion to enter the market this year!
From California to New York - deficits are translating into higher taxes and benefit cuts.
With the credit easing up in the Corporate debt market - this year will be flooded by the States on top of what the Treasury & Fed are doing....Illinois going global to raise money...A repeat of Iceland?
Trying to be COOL! Intel , Microsoft & Sony!!
Every one wants to be cool! But there are some who go the extra mile to Look COOL the easy way!
First it was Mr Balmer & Mr Gates of Microsoft- various clips from trying to be comedic and play a HipHop and everything stupid- outright miserable...couldnt get up!
Then it was Intel - very open when Mr Otellini of Intel came in a Bunny Suite on stage with Steve Jobs! It didnt last very long!
Now its Sir Howard of Sony - This time he dod not minse words....went straight on the air and said They would like to be Cool!
Is this just a trend of Grown Ups and Matured companies trying to be creative in their market acceptance and failing to be innovative?
First it was Mr Balmer & Mr Gates of Microsoft- various clips from trying to be comedic and play a HipHop and everything stupid- outright miserable...couldnt get up!
Then it was Intel - very open when Mr Otellini of Intel came in a Bunny Suite on stage with Steve Jobs! It didnt last very long!
Now its Sir Howard of Sony - This time he dod not minse words....went straight on the air and said They would like to be Cool!
Is this just a trend of Grown Ups and Matured companies trying to be creative in their market acceptance and failing to be innovative?
Wake-up Mr Sarkozy!
There he goes again!
Very picturesque!
Politically very savvy!
Mr Sarkozy was more vocal and emphatic when he was Holding a Title at EU!
He is the last one to join the Weak currency race and the least powerful!
China was clear on its currency strategy! Japan was not so clear- flop flopping and finally succumbing to Corporate pressure decide to fight with Chinese for the American Consumer! India being a very small player in the Global market - yet had to keep the currency incentive going to keep the Export market happy!
Ofcourse EU cannot sit and watch their closed market - export oriented economy to fail - so here comes the support for a Weak Euro and strong Dollar!
With every one trying to outdo every other Country to weaken their currency - Can the Dollar reach a value based on Economic Fundamentals?
Can Germany regain momnetum for its Global leadership ambition at the expense of Mighty Queen and the Yankees when the rest of the export oriented economies fighting for a piece of the American Consumer?
Can the Fixed Income market achieve what they did in 2008-09? by regaining control over the poicy makers? Given the current dynamics - it is very doubtful that the PIMCO's of the world can repeat what they did recently!
Very picturesque!
Politically very savvy!
Mr Sarkozy was more vocal and emphatic when he was Holding a Title at EU!
He is the last one to join the Weak currency race and the least powerful!
China was clear on its currency strategy! Japan was not so clear- flop flopping and finally succumbing to Corporate pressure decide to fight with Chinese for the American Consumer! India being a very small player in the Global market - yet had to keep the currency incentive going to keep the Export market happy!
Ofcourse EU cannot sit and watch their closed market - export oriented economy to fail - so here comes the support for a Weak Euro and strong Dollar!
With every one trying to outdo every other Country to weaken their currency - Can the Dollar reach a value based on Economic Fundamentals?
Can Germany regain momnetum for its Global leadership ambition at the expense of Mighty Queen and the Yankees when the rest of the export oriented economies fighting for a piece of the American Consumer?
Can the Fixed Income market achieve what they did in 2008-09? by regaining control over the poicy makers? Given the current dynamics - it is very doubtful that the PIMCO's of the world can repeat what they did recently!
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Peter Schiff for Senate! Bluementhal follows soon!!
Peter Schiff rose to celebrity status with his Economic melt down predictions - after hiding behind the shadows of Ron Paul!
Pushing the Connecticut Republicans to back him might not be enough to gain momentum!
Bluementhal's popularity within the Democratic state is very compelling and might be difficult to shake his chances!
This election will be a keenly contested one as the outcome will decide the future of Washington Politics! Can the Tea Party movement gain momentum to capitalise on this shift in ground within the democatic party?
Pushing the Connecticut Republicans to back him might not be enough to gain momentum!
Bluementhal's popularity within the Democratic state is very compelling and might be difficult to shake his chances!
This election will be a keenly contested one as the outcome will decide the future of Washington Politics! Can the Tea Party movement gain momentum to capitalise on this shift in ground within the democatic party?
Lockheed Martin Lay off - A beginning for Defense Companies?
Lockheed Martin's 1200 layoff seems like a small insignificant blip in the complex things of Economy!
After 2 terms of Republican Ruling supported by Terrorists action globally and the Fear factor - LMT and other companies in the Defense sectors enjoyed a great growth!
With a change in DC and the Democratic Party Politics shifting the ground with a poerful force- Defense sector will be a casualty - unless a major terrorist act shifts the national sentiment.
LockHeed Martin - one of the best run Defense company is also a one of the largest IT System Integrator - which has been a well kept secret. This might be the beginning of the downward push of the defense stocks- However any mjor sell off in LMT could be a buying opportunity as it is well hedged in non-defense businesses and its IT strengths will start to push its earning power higher soon.
After 2 terms of Republican Ruling supported by Terrorists action globally and the Fear factor - LMT and other companies in the Defense sectors enjoyed a great growth!
With a change in DC and the Democratic Party Politics shifting the ground with a poerful force- Defense sector will be a casualty - unless a major terrorist act shifts the national sentiment.
LockHeed Martin - one of the best run Defense company is also a one of the largest IT System Integrator - which has been a well kept secret. This might be the beginning of the downward push of the defense stocks- However any mjor sell off in LMT could be a buying opportunity as it is well hedged in non-defense businesses and its IT strengths will start to push its earning power higher soon.
Buffet and Cadbury - no sweet tooth here?
Warren Buffet is not happy with Kraft's courting of Cadbury!
Mr Buffet and Berkshire has always claimed Hands-off strategy in portfolio companies and in companies where they have a significant interest. Kraft is one such and they too exception and expresed their displeasure.
The last time Mr Buffet thumped on the table was when Coco-cola wanted Quaker and Gatorade! Coke bowed to Mr Buffet, Respectfully - Only to see Pepsi succesfully take it and make it a money spinner for their ever expanding brands and shelf spaces in etail markets- GLOBALLY! What Buffet won in the Boardroom - Coco-cola lost in teh market to Pepsi!
Kraft is a brand with lot of holes in its international startegy and desperately needs Cadbury to keep its growth edging higher!
Mr Buffet is right in expressing his alarm in seeing a blank Check from Kraft- However there are ways to control the price tag- Doing that is prudent! But let it be that and no more!
Let the Kraft Management have the liberty to expand globally through acquisition - as Krat is not a Brand that cn successfuly expand organically!
Mr Buffet and Berkshire has always claimed Hands-off strategy in portfolio companies and in companies where they have a significant interest. Kraft is one such and they too exception and expresed their displeasure.
The last time Mr Buffet thumped on the table was when Coco-cola wanted Quaker and Gatorade! Coke bowed to Mr Buffet, Respectfully - Only to see Pepsi succesfully take it and make it a money spinner for their ever expanding brands and shelf spaces in etail markets- GLOBALLY! What Buffet won in the Boardroom - Coco-cola lost in teh market to Pepsi!
Kraft is a brand with lot of holes in its international startegy and desperately needs Cadbury to keep its growth edging higher!
Mr Buffet is right in expressing his alarm in seeing a blank Check from Kraft- However there are ways to control the price tag- Doing that is prudent! But let it be that and no more!
Let the Kraft Management have the liberty to expand globally through acquisition - as Krat is not a Brand that cn successfuly expand organically!
PIMCO loading up German Bonds!
PIMCO exiting US Bond and going Patriotic!!
German Company PIMCO unhappy with its political clout in DC in shaping up the Federal Policy and Government Direction has decided to go head to head! By dumping US Investments and loading up on German Bonds!
And being vocal as they do it! Now that is a new image that we have ome to expect from PIMCO during the last two years - during which they managed to strong arm Paulson and Executive branch to make policy changes by the hours that directly or indirectly benefitted PIMCO!
This time around as we have mentioned before - the war could escalate ot a different level! We have a different power house in DC and the intensity with which changes are being bull dozed - it will be a nice time to watch and enjoy the power politics!
German Company PIMCO unhappy with its political clout in DC in shaping up the Federal Policy and Government Direction has decided to go head to head! By dumping US Investments and loading up on German Bonds!
And being vocal as they do it! Now that is a new image that we have ome to expect from PIMCO during the last two years - during which they managed to strong arm Paulson and Executive branch to make policy changes by the hours that directly or indirectly benefitted PIMCO!
This time around as we have mentioned before - the war could escalate ot a different level! We have a different power house in DC and the intensity with which changes are being bull dozed - it will be a nice time to watch and enjoy the power politics!
Change of Guard with Dodd's Exit!
Two of the vocal faces of the Democrats are no more!
After Kennedy - it was left to Dodd and Frank!
After 8 terms and over 3 decades - Dodd is no more!
Politically he survived 2009 - from Scandals to abrasive differences with the Executive branch!
Is this the beginning of the CHANGE that we can expect from the New Democratic Party? Old way of thinking and faces leaving for a new direction and politics?
Or just an inevitable outcome from the likes Tea Parties of middle America?
Or the forces behind Connecticut - Wall Street getting ready for a New Leadership to represent them!
Mr Dodd Good luck and Thank you for long years and hours in DC!
After Kennedy - it was left to Dodd and Frank!
After 8 terms and over 3 decades - Dodd is no more!
Politically he survived 2009 - from Scandals to abrasive differences with the Executive branch!
Is this the beginning of the CHANGE that we can expect from the New Democratic Party? Old way of thinking and faces leaving for a new direction and politics?
Or just an inevitable outcome from the likes Tea Parties of middle America?
Or the forces behind Connecticut - Wall Street getting ready for a New Leadership to represent them!
Mr Dodd Good luck and Thank you for long years and hours in DC!
Monday, January 4, 2010
Banking on America! Mr Moynihan and BofA!
Bank of America for a while had a tag line - Banking on America!
And indeed it did!
After scooping up Merrill Lynch and CountryWide - Bank Of America went down the tube along with the Banking System forcing a Federal bailout!
From being the strongest to the weakest in less than 30 seconds!
Having built a great franchise - Ken Lewis was not spared!
Now crowning King Mr Moynihan - from the Fleet team - looks very vocal and outgoing! A diametric opposite to Mr Ken Lewis! Lewis let the numbers speak for him!
Mr Moynihan does not have time on his side to let the numebrs come and speak- He is on the circuit- speaking and speaking strong!
This is a different time! There is no room for the weaklings!
When there is only one Gorilla roaming the Wall Street under Goldman banner - there is a split second opportunity for a retail brand to regain leadership!
Mr Moynihan looks determined to capture the moment and lead Bank of America to its glory days!
This is a Good time to Bank on Mr Moynihan and Bank of America which has some fo the best of breed Brands and reach under Merrill Lynch and CountryWide not to mention its coast to coast retail presence!
And indeed it did!
After scooping up Merrill Lynch and CountryWide - Bank Of America went down the tube along with the Banking System forcing a Federal bailout!
From being the strongest to the weakest in less than 30 seconds!
Having built a great franchise - Ken Lewis was not spared!
Now crowning King Mr Moynihan - from the Fleet team - looks very vocal and outgoing! A diametric opposite to Mr Ken Lewis! Lewis let the numbers speak for him!
Mr Moynihan does not have time on his side to let the numebrs come and speak- He is on the circuit- speaking and speaking strong!
This is a different time! There is no room for the weaklings!
When there is only one Gorilla roaming the Wall Street under Goldman banner - there is a split second opportunity for a retail brand to regain leadership!
Mr Moynihan looks determined to capture the moment and lead Bank of America to its glory days!
This is a Good time to Bank on Mr Moynihan and Bank of America which has some fo the best of breed Brands and reach under Merrill Lynch and CountryWide not to mention its coast to coast retail presence!
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Economic Data shows a recovery!
The last few weeks has seen a steady stream of data showing not just a leveling of the economic data but has shown a steady uptick.
With the Currency showing some strength and the bond market being receptive to the heavy dose of Treausry auctions.....and the perenial Bears of America Faber and the likes jumping shipsbefore the tide rises- the new year appears to be headed for an usual early stage Economic cycle.
With Europe , Japan and China competing for the American consumers - and the Obama Administration keen on Major changes Domestically with an eye of Manufacturing export- The next Decade should bode well for Corporate America!
With the Currency showing some strength and the bond market being receptive to the heavy dose of Treausry auctions.....and the perenial Bears of America Faber and the likes jumping shipsbefore the tide rises- the new year appears to be headed for an usual early stage Economic cycle.
With Europe , Japan and China competing for the American consumers - and the Obama Administration keen on Major changes Domestically with an eye of Manufacturing export- The next Decade should bode well for Corporate America!
Iran and the Rumours!
With the Energy complex closing on a relatively high note- it is difficult not to raise an eyebrow to the rumours surrounding Iran!
From a plan waiting to fly the Ayatollah to Russia and even the recent attempt of stepping into Iraq might hve been a distraction tacticts by the ruling Government in Iran!
Can it survive the New Year? Is it a Twitter & YouTube coup? Or just another Oil market speculation and rumour to push the il abouve the $80 resistance for another run at the century mark?
From a plan waiting to fly the Ayatollah to Russia and even the recent attempt of stepping into Iraq might hve been a distraction tacticts by the ruling Government in Iran!
Can it survive the New Year? Is it a Twitter & YouTube coup? Or just another Oil market speculation and rumour to push the il abouve the $80 resistance for another run at the century mark?
A Humble request to Mr Wozniak!
Mr Wozniak - the world credits you as one of the Founders of Apple & a great Technology Genius- and RIGHTLY So!
It is a bit dis-heartening to see you riding that SegWay and promoting Auto-Body with a Blonde? Yes - it could be for a friend , or could also be a pure business deal ...still- it is difficult to see a person with such an Image associated with a low quality TV commercial.
Even if you dont want to remove from the commercial - please have a better Agency produce an Elegant and Image appropriate spot.
It is a bit dis-heartening to see you riding that SegWay and promoting Auto-Body with a Blonde? Yes - it could be for a friend , or could also be a pure business deal ...still- it is difficult to see a person with such an Image associated with a low quality TV commercial.
Even if you dont want to remove from the commercial - please have a better Agency produce an Elegant and Image appropriate spot.
Apple and Googe: A conspiracy Theory!
The firt decade of the new Millenium saw the gradual rise of two unusual Tech companies to emerge as the pillars of the future- Apple and Google! With Google's Eric Schmidt on Apple's Board and both having additional common Board Members and supporters - And ofcourse a common Enemy in Microsoft!
Suddenly as the decade is coming to an end - Eric is gently booted out of Apple's board; Genentech's CEO who warmed the seat's of bith these companies - quietly resigns from Google! All in the middle of sum rumblings in DC about possible conflicts of collisions for an Anti-competitive possiblities againts the MIghty Microsoft and the old generation Technology Giants!
Shortly after these - Google announces its full force entry into Mobile market and a possible iPhone look alike- only to be dubbed as an iPhone Killer by the media and the analysts!
Buddies for a decade and suddenly Google and Team - after being in Apple's iniside quarters all these years - stabbing Apple?
Both companies quiet on the exit of Eric and the entry of Droid!
Is it a classical case of traitor or just another step of collision to fight against the Mighty Microsoft and the 8000 Pound Gorrillas of the Telecom Giants - Att and Verizon and the likes who have kept their hold on Telecommunications and Internet and prevented the spread of free access to information and innovation?
May be Time will tell!
May Be , Just May be - The consumers are sowly getting a look at what change of Guard can do and what innovation through free mind and access can provide!
Suddenly as the decade is coming to an end - Eric is gently booted out of Apple's board; Genentech's CEO who warmed the seat's of bith these companies - quietly resigns from Google! All in the middle of sum rumblings in DC about possible conflicts of collisions for an Anti-competitive possiblities againts the MIghty Microsoft and the old generation Technology Giants!
Shortly after these - Google announces its full force entry into Mobile market and a possible iPhone look alike- only to be dubbed as an iPhone Killer by the media and the analysts!
Buddies for a decade and suddenly Google and Team - after being in Apple's iniside quarters all these years - stabbing Apple?
Both companies quiet on the exit of Eric and the entry of Droid!
Is it a classical case of traitor or just another step of collision to fight against the Mighty Microsoft and the 8000 Pound Gorrillas of the Telecom Giants - Att and Verizon and the likes who have kept their hold on Telecommunications and Internet and prevented the spread of free access to information and innovation?
May be Time will tell!
May Be , Just May be - The consumers are sowly getting a look at what change of Guard can do and what innovation through free mind and access can provide!
Calling Bluff on the Currency!
All of this decade we have been seeing pundints, Economists and Investent Bankers calling on teh Demise of the King Dollar!
From European Politicaians to Chinese Government Officials have been calling for the American Policiy Makers and Bankers to get in control of the runaway deficits.
In the Middle of the crisis the printing machines around the world went overtime with the Domestic ones using its Economic might and sophistication to be even more efficient in leveraging the additional availability and its reach!
More doom sayers and prognasticators for the fall of Dollars- Only this time it was joined by the Mighty Rusputans and the Middle East Oil Barrons!
Come the new Administration and the Obama Administration - Under Larry Summers they started this very straight forward endorsement a Weaker Dollar!
The Music stopped! The Tide went down! The Dollar went up!
With Chinese Government refusing to let go of the Dollar forced the Japanese government to jaw bone the currency market to support the Dollar to change the Yen strength! Europeans with their Export oriented economy threatened at a strong Euro and weaker Yuan and YEn - started backing the Dollar!
Did the Obama Administration change the tide by simply calling Bluff on those Policy makers of the global closed economies who relied on Exports allowing the Domestic Economists and the Policy Makers to readjust their strategy for the next Decade?
Now from Faber to Biggs to every one else around the world is caling for a Stronger Dollar!
Is this a political game of the haves and the have nots playing in the capital market- with the Governments and POlicy makers blindly throwing darts without really understanding either the capitalism or the Economic Fundamentals? Or just another Investment manipulation by the allmighty Investment Bankers?
From European Politicaians to Chinese Government Officials have been calling for the American Policiy Makers and Bankers to get in control of the runaway deficits.
In the Middle of the crisis the printing machines around the world went overtime with the Domestic ones using its Economic might and sophistication to be even more efficient in leveraging the additional availability and its reach!
More doom sayers and prognasticators for the fall of Dollars- Only this time it was joined by the Mighty Rusputans and the Middle East Oil Barrons!
Come the new Administration and the Obama Administration - Under Larry Summers they started this very straight forward endorsement a Weaker Dollar!
The Music stopped! The Tide went down! The Dollar went up!
With Chinese Government refusing to let go of the Dollar forced the Japanese government to jaw bone the currency market to support the Dollar to change the Yen strength! Europeans with their Export oriented economy threatened at a strong Euro and weaker Yuan and YEn - started backing the Dollar!
Did the Obama Administration change the tide by simply calling Bluff on those Policy makers of the global closed economies who relied on Exports allowing the Domestic Economists and the Policy Makers to readjust their strategy for the next Decade?
Now from Faber to Biggs to every one else around the world is caling for a Stronger Dollar!
Is this a political game of the haves and the have nots playing in the capital market- with the Governments and POlicy makers blindly throwing darts without really understanding either the capitalism or the Economic Fundamentals? Or just another Investment manipulation by the allmighty Investment Bankers?
Friday, December 25, 2009
Trends and Changes for the Next Decade!
These are what to expect in the next decade that could change or disrupt things for tethe better or worse:
The Next Decade
Bio generics
Natural Gas as the next shift in energy play
General Motors regaining Global Leadership
VOIP replacing Cell phones
Second coming of Microsoft
Collapse of Euro
Japan center of controversy
India as a battle ground for Terrorism
Left Brain development leads to a new form of global political unrest and a new order in international governance
End of Goldman Sachs
The Next Decade
Bio generics
Natural Gas as the next shift in energy play
General Motors regaining Global Leadership
VOIP replacing Cell phones
Second coming of Microsoft
Collapse of Euro
Japan center of controversy
India as a battle ground for Terrorism
Left Brain development leads to a new form of global political unrest and a new order in international governance
End of Goldman Sachs
The Netscape moments of the last Decade!
Internet and Networking was in a cross road when Netsape swept people to the mesmerizing experience of distributed and easily accessible information. Though Netscape was short lived the omnipresence of Internet and its not yet recognized impact on the Human evolution is leaps and bounds.
In this madness of advancement and media polarization we tend to overlook those moments , the Netscape moments , that paves the way for a major change and shift in people behaviour or conveniences - not to mention corporate improvement. This might be products, innovation or just political encounters or events that has a far reaching implication that is overlooked after its initial moments of notoriety!
The Netscape Moments of the last decade:
China holding onto American Spy plane
End of Iraq War and US Policy shifts in Asia
The Paulson - Bush(s) Family week long stay in China during the Olympics
Sonya Gandhi passing up PM post in India
Collapsed merger of WorldCom and Sprint
The Paulson Bazooka sales pitch
WebVan - retail and Internet delivery from Internet Supply chain to personalization of product and logistics!
Napster – from Music and current social networking & viral acceptance of consumer force
In this madness of advancement and media polarization we tend to overlook those moments , the Netscape moments , that paves the way for a major change and shift in people behaviour or conveniences - not to mention corporate improvement. This might be products, innovation or just political encounters or events that has a far reaching implication that is overlooked after its initial moments of notoriety!
The Netscape Moments of the last decade:
China holding onto American Spy plane
End of Iraq War and US Policy shifts in Asia
The Paulson - Bush(s) Family week long stay in China during the Olympics
Sonya Gandhi passing up PM post in India
Collapsed merger of WorldCom and Sprint
The Paulson Bazooka sales pitch
WebVan - retail and Internet delivery from Internet Supply chain to personalization of product and logistics!
Napster – from Music and current social networking & viral acceptance of consumer force
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Merry Christmas! And the Goody bag missed the coal....
As the year and the Decade winds down in the next few days- looking back certainly throws some above average painful moments from the Telecom and Internet Bubble to 9/11 to the recent almost Depresson scenario....With so many wars in a decade from Rusians marching into Georgia and the US grabbing most of the Middle east and APAC headlines- and CHina having its share - to mention a just a few- is certainly unbeleivable to think that we are closing a high growth quarter.
With More innovation and globalization in the oven - the next decade might prove to be a more sober and successful one with limited disruption.
With More innovation and globalization in the oven - the next decade might prove to be a more sober and successful one with limited disruption.
Tarnishing the Tiger Brand: From Tatiana to Tiger Woods!
Promiscuity , Infidelity , Groupies , Seconds .....Name what you want to we live in a society where Politicians from George Washington onwards to Kennedy and onto Mr Clinton - breached the same delicate line that Mr Woods accidentally stumbled into.
Successful celebrities who managed their public image and private relationship through a very well paid PR agency managed to keep their private lifestyle secret using a very carefully managed group of managers and workers. Even the Boyish Brits from Liverpool who have such a lovable image globally had a very well managed professionals who took care of their not so proud private life and kept it out of the public life until recently. From Musicians to Sports personalities this has been a well accepted practice whether it is morally acceptable or not - and to a large extent it has been kept away from public through some sort of unwritten but widely accepted practice by the press and media....as long as it is managed well from teh celebrity side.
It might have been difficult for Tatiana to use that option - but a successful personality like Mr Woods to have a Brittany Spears like PR team with so much at stake in the corporate world from Accenture to Nike and everyone else in between- and to let it unravel....!
Successful celebrities who managed their public image and private relationship through a very well paid PR agency managed to keep their private lifestyle secret using a very carefully managed group of managers and workers. Even the Boyish Brits from Liverpool who have such a lovable image globally had a very well managed professionals who took care of their not so proud private life and kept it out of the public life until recently. From Musicians to Sports personalities this has been a well accepted practice whether it is morally acceptable or not - and to a large extent it has been kept away from public through some sort of unwritten but widely accepted practice by the press and media....as long as it is managed well from teh celebrity side.
It might have been difficult for Tatiana to use that option - but a successful personality like Mr Woods to have a Brittany Spears like PR team with so much at stake in the corporate world from Accenture to Nike and everyone else in between- and to let it unravel....!
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Doing God's Work!! With a little help from my Friend ......!
FT courageously or cowardly spots Mr Blankfein for the covetted Man of the Year award!
Rightly or Wrongly - May be Mr Paulson should have got the award for aiding the Golden Boy to retain its Wall Street foundation and make money.
Betting on borrowed money when the time grinds to a halt - with the candle fading for the world while the select few carving the End of Time.....well its for another generation to dig into the dirt and write history book.
For now we will be fair and endorse the FT research as the year and decade comes to an end of excess with managed manipulation spreading globally and the covetted profit retained by those who knew and had access to the previliged laws...still leaving the door open for more to come.
Rightly or Wrongly - May be Mr Paulson should have got the award for aiding the Golden Boy to retain its Wall Street foundation and make money.
Betting on borrowed money when the time grinds to a halt - with the candle fading for the world while the select few carving the End of Time.....well its for another generation to dig into the dirt and write history book.
For now we will be fair and endorse the FT research as the year and decade comes to an end of excess with managed manipulation spreading globally and the covetted profit retained by those who knew and had access to the previliged laws...still leaving the door open for more to come.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Exxon and the next Energy direction!
After 100 years of dominance in the energy market giving its employees and share holders the best possible returs for aover 100 years - Exxon decides to enter NatGas with a huge acquisition. Nat Gas has been ignored in large part due to the dominance of the Oil companies like Exxon - making it very difficult for distribution and adoption by users.
With Mr Obama forcing a Energy policy which is moving away from Oil and making it difficult for the Oil Lobbyists to make headway - Exxon might have a good strategy to extend its dominance int eh energy complex - hoping the alternate energy camp will fail to catch up its muscle in speed and cost.
If the bet by Exxon pays in the near term - it could be a big blow for Oil and oil dependent economies and ocmpanies and could play a huge role in reducing deficits.
With Mr Obama forcing a Energy policy which is moving away from Oil and making it difficult for the Oil Lobbyists to make headway - Exxon might have a good strategy to extend its dominance int eh energy complex - hoping the alternate energy camp will fail to catch up its muscle in speed and cost.
If the bet by Exxon pays in the near term - it could be a big blow for Oil and oil dependent economies and ocmpanies and could play a huge role in reducing deficits.
Microsoft & i4i - The irony of Gates's Kingdom!
Mr Gates found the empire not on innovation but on Execution.
Innovation can be bought and stolen as long has you have a strong bull dog mentality.
One of Gates' friend told in a recent CNBC special - that Bill Gates warned not to disclose or share secrets as him will copy them! Thats a good trait to have to warn before copying!
In its long history of Corporate Pirate Act - All their near monopoly situation was achieved by Bull dozing and impeccable execution! From DOS to Windows - was either bought or stolen , Word, Excel , Powerpoint , SQL Server & its distant cousin , Internet Explorer , and on and on....same story!
In every situation money and time bought them victory both with customers and court rooms.
Until Now - a small company & a small feature! May be insignificant in their importance in a product or its applicabilit or even in critical nature...but in the SoftWare world its a major step- more than EU bribe and verdict!
Even as the desktop and the Microsoft is being driven to the backroom with Internet and Cloud Computing taking a major step into consumers hand and their cell phones and appliances- Innovation will win and the likes of i4i will thrive leaving Microsft to lose respect - even it succeeds to make money through execution!
Innovation can be bought and stolen as long has you have a strong bull dog mentality.
One of Gates' friend told in a recent CNBC special - that Bill Gates warned not to disclose or share secrets as him will copy them! Thats a good trait to have to warn before copying!
In its long history of Corporate Pirate Act - All their near monopoly situation was achieved by Bull dozing and impeccable execution! From DOS to Windows - was either bought or stolen , Word, Excel , Powerpoint , SQL Server & its distant cousin , Internet Explorer , and on and on....same story!
In every situation money and time bought them victory both with customers and court rooms.
Until Now - a small company & a small feature! May be insignificant in their importance in a product or its applicabilit or even in critical nature...but in the SoftWare world its a major step- more than EU bribe and verdict!
Even as the desktop and the Microsoft is being driven to the backroom with Internet and Cloud Computing taking a major step into consumers hand and their cell phones and appliances- Innovation will win and the likes of i4i will thrive leaving Microsft to lose respect - even it succeeds to make money through execution!
Monday, December 21, 2009
Biederlack - The blanket from Greven Germany!
In 1994 I bought a couple of Blankets - with Tiger images for the mild Bay Area Winter. For $20 - it was a no brainer so never paid much attention to it's quality or brand. After a few months started realising that the blanket was very comfortable and also had a unique capability to be cool during sumer and warm duringthe winder months.
The design was very captivating - so ended up using on and off on the sofa as a throw! Occassional guests and friends started commenting about the blankets.After 15 years and several other blankets we have come to a conclusion that - thi si sby far the best one we have owned. Kept looking around in retails and failed to see any one carrying it. Thanks to Google it doesnt take much - we finally found the manufacturer- alas the Economy has done a number! They are shutting down the American Operation.
It is a shame! A German blanket - with a history of over 450years of legacy! Shutting down - dont know if it was the economy or something else- but certainly felt bad as we had used the the 20 dollar blankets for so long and still looked like original and gave the same comfort as it did several years ago.
We did manage to stockpile a few that will last a while!
The design was very captivating - so ended up using on and off on the sofa as a throw! Occassional guests and friends started commenting about the blankets.After 15 years and several other blankets we have come to a conclusion that - thi si sby far the best one we have owned. Kept looking around in retails and failed to see any one carrying it. Thanks to Google it doesnt take much - we finally found the manufacturer- alas the Economy has done a number! They are shutting down the American Operation.
It is a shame! A German blanket - with a history of over 450years of legacy! Shutting down - dont know if it was the economy or something else- but certainly felt bad as we had used the the 20 dollar blankets for so long and still looked like original and gave the same comfort as it did several years ago.
We did manage to stockpile a few that will last a while!
BBC's TOP GEAR!
One of the most fascinating shows that I have watched in quite a while is TOP GEAR that is shown on BBC America. This program is all about cars and races....in a creative and innovative way! In one episode different participants race to teh Airport outside London in different form of transportation - from Bicycling to public mode to boatig and driving! Interesting twist to the routine - very well editted and captured the essence of city life!
The recent episode on Polar Expedition was breath taking - both from an idea to the actual venture. Very UNREAL!
Creative and the participants willing to take the risk on taking such an expedition....is amazing. Words cannot explain or bring out the flavor of the creativity and the adventure that is actually spilled in takin ghtis series. One has to watch to see and appreciate the talent and creative contents.
May be Jeff Immelt of GE-NBC could motivate his producers to watch some of these programs to come with some new and exciting programs in NBC.
The recent episode on Polar Expedition was breath taking - both from an idea to the actual venture. Very UNREAL!
Creative and the participants willing to take the risk on taking such an expedition....is amazing. Words cannot explain or bring out the flavor of the creativity and the adventure that is actually spilled in takin ghtis series. One has to watch to see and appreciate the talent and creative contents.
May be Jeff Immelt of GE-NBC could motivate his producers to watch some of these programs to come with some new and exciting programs in NBC.
Retail and Technology!
After a couple of years of sluggish Christmas season - which was actually quite good for people looking of Computers and laptops - this year was quite interesting!
Walking into a Best Buy or Fry's in Silicon Valley always had a attraction in the Comuter section with a few models discounted rather sharply! Not this time around. Very few models on SALE and that too hardly one would call it substantial.
Going on different websites - same every where! Most of the popula models where sold out and the discounts very skimpy!
Is the consumer Back? And the Technology rebounding in real sense?
From iPhone to Kindle - no discounts to be found anywhere and peope dont seem to mind!
Walking into a Best Buy or Fry's in Silicon Valley always had a attraction in the Comuter section with a few models discounted rather sharply! Not this time around. Very few models on SALE and that too hardly one would call it substantial.
Going on different websites - same every where! Most of the popula models where sold out and the discounts very skimpy!
Is the consumer Back? And the Technology rebounding in real sense?
From iPhone to Kindle - no discounts to be found anywhere and peope dont seem to mind!
This is not Your Grandpa's GM!
Genearal Motors under SBC's management style will be a profitable and successful company.
Restoring GM takes a new outlook and a little friendly nudge from the US government in way of currency management.
Under Mr Obama - Larry Summers and team are very aware of the currency game played by Japan and Europe to keep their export engine going. This has started showing in how the US government has stopped jawboning the currency market and have openly showed interest in an export driven US Economy and how Manufacturing will play a huge role in contributing to the labor force.
With the strong hand from Mr Whitacre and his recent appointment of Mr Liddell from Microsoft shows how critical Change is to the new GM and its management - mostly owned by the US government!
GM will regain its leadership role in the next several years - and will become a global force once again - supporting the emerging Manufacturing leadership of American economy.
Restoring GM takes a new outlook and a little friendly nudge from the US government in way of currency management.
Under Mr Obama - Larry Summers and team are very aware of the currency game played by Japan and Europe to keep their export engine going. This has started showing in how the US government has stopped jawboning the currency market and have openly showed interest in an export driven US Economy and how Manufacturing will play a huge role in contributing to the labor force.
With the strong hand from Mr Whitacre and his recent appointment of Mr Liddell from Microsoft shows how critical Change is to the new GM and its management - mostly owned by the US government!
GM will regain its leadership role in the next several years - and will become a global force once again - supporting the emerging Manufacturing leadership of American economy.
The Harvard SWAP Blame Game!
Mr Summers and his legacy at Harvard may not resonate the way a successful individual might like - but there are some information and evens that need to be looked upon in the right context.
Interest rate swap exposure and its winding down at Harvard might have resulted in a huge liquidity crisis and even take a billion or so in losses - but blaming Mr Summers for the decision to bail out of an instrument prematurely and book the loss- is not right.
Making a decision to enter a trade is only one side to any successful transaction. Equally important is the closing - Most of the successful transactions are done by taking gut wrenching decisions after entering any transactions. In most of the situations the butterflies to hold or double down depends on the personality and often results in making money. After Mr Summers left Harvard - a couple of larger than life personalities have managed the Harvard Investments and has been under different management- and who overlooked the bet during their watch and failed to make any corrective actions - if felt they were caustic.
An immediate reaction by Professors, from Boston U and Bard College who acted less educated than their diplomas would show in their remarks - shows the competitive landscape/landmine that is there in the education world.
Please let the blame go to those who managed the Funds after Mr Summers left Harvard - and a larger portion should go to the Person who took the decisiont o wind down the Swap knowing very well that the Maximum wind down cost is not significantly larger than the premature wind down cost! It is a shame that the press and the media fall prey for political games - they should do a little bit more research before they start throwing darts on a predetermined target - in this case it is a shame - given the political ramifications.
Interest rate swap exposure and its winding down at Harvard might have resulted in a huge liquidity crisis and even take a billion or so in losses - but blaming Mr Summers for the decision to bail out of an instrument prematurely and book the loss- is not right.
Making a decision to enter a trade is only one side to any successful transaction. Equally important is the closing - Most of the successful transactions are done by taking gut wrenching decisions after entering any transactions. In most of the situations the butterflies to hold or double down depends on the personality and often results in making money. After Mr Summers left Harvard - a couple of larger than life personalities have managed the Harvard Investments and has been under different management- and who overlooked the bet during their watch and failed to make any corrective actions - if felt they were caustic.
An immediate reaction by Professors, from Boston U and Bard College who acted less educated than their diplomas would show in their remarks - shows the competitive landscape/landmine that is there in the education world.
Please let the blame go to those who managed the Funds after Mr Summers left Harvard - and a larger portion should go to the Person who took the decisiont o wind down the Swap knowing very well that the Maximum wind down cost is not significantly larger than the premature wind down cost! It is a shame that the press and the media fall prey for political games - they should do a little bit more research before they start throwing darts on a predetermined target - in this case it is a shame - given the political ramifications.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Is Germany's Allianz a Better name for PIMCO?
The bond market Gorilla - ALLIANZ of Germany has been hiding under the American Label PIMCO.
PIMCO ala ALLIANZ played a huge role in Blackmailing the Ben & Hank team during the meltdown - as they were able to have a private puppet show using Mohammad, Paul & Bill - as the government was printing money into their coffers to keep the market afloat. And ofcourse they will have a clean sweep going into the Fund Manager ratings season- for the whole decade.
Now looks like they are on the prowl again- Gross and PIMCO is piling up cash as the year comes to a winding. A full swing from negative 7 percent to positive 7 percent in less than a couple of months - now - thats a huge volatile move unless they are hedging on a big squeeze or a power play. The last time they did was piling on the agency papers before the Government was forced to bail them out!
Only this time around there is a new Sherriff in town! Given what Summers did when PIMCO started circulating the NEW NORM ECONOMY - to be in line with their investment strategy- this could turn out to be a good start to a new power play war!
The bookies might favor the Allianz team purely based on their past 2 years of muscle power- but the the pendulum is beginning to swing in the new Sherriff's favor as Santa circles around the North Pole before heading down!
PIMCO ala ALLIANZ played a huge role in Blackmailing the Ben & Hank team during the meltdown - as they were able to have a private puppet show using Mohammad, Paul & Bill - as the government was printing money into their coffers to keep the market afloat. And ofcourse they will have a clean sweep going into the Fund Manager ratings season- for the whole decade.
Now looks like they are on the prowl again- Gross and PIMCO is piling up cash as the year comes to a winding. A full swing from negative 7 percent to positive 7 percent in less than a couple of months - now - thats a huge volatile move unless they are hedging on a big squeeze or a power play. The last time they did was piling on the agency papers before the Government was forced to bail them out!
Only this time around there is a new Sherriff in town! Given what Summers did when PIMCO started circulating the NEW NORM ECONOMY - to be in line with their investment strategy- this could turn out to be a good start to a new power play war!
The bookies might favor the Allianz team purely based on their past 2 years of muscle power- but the the pendulum is beginning to swing in the new Sherriff's favor as Santa circles around the North Pole before heading down!
Climate Control and the Emerging Market Impact!
Copenhagen or No Copenhagen- Carbon trading is here for the profitable few!
The common demonstration during the summit- though politicised is easily hijacked by the paparazi world!
The real impact will be felt by the ones not co-operating! The Emergig markets and their future depends on how fast they can build their Industrial base along with the infrastructure- Any constraints from Copenhagen will have a huge negative impact and they will have to pay a penalty - both the price to build the pent up demand of infrastructure and the time....so is there a reason for them to comply? Not really! As a delay in build out of their infra and industrial base will widen the gap between the developed economies and developing economies. In this world of zero latency internet world it might be difficult to keep anyone from understanding the hidden agenda of the Clean Air crowd.....Ironically Big Al might be doing a BIG favor to the developed economies by his campaign - without really understanding the impact of his Nobel prize!Just like his accidental association with Internet!
The common demonstration during the summit- though politicised is easily hijacked by the paparazi world!
The real impact will be felt by the ones not co-operating! The Emergig markets and their future depends on how fast they can build their Industrial base along with the infrastructure- Any constraints from Copenhagen will have a huge negative impact and they will have to pay a penalty - both the price to build the pent up demand of infrastructure and the time....so is there a reason for them to comply? Not really! As a delay in build out of their infra and industrial base will widen the gap between the developed economies and developing economies. In this world of zero latency internet world it might be difficult to keep anyone from understanding the hidden agenda of the Clean Air crowd.....Ironically Big Al might be doing a BIG favor to the developed economies by his campaign - without really understanding the impact of his Nobel prize!Just like his accidental association with Internet!
Thursday, December 17, 2009
How to Prioritise ....The Inside Microsoft Dilemma!
In a World with no Walls- There is no room for Windows!
Looking at the recent Microsoft campaign - it is vary clear that Microsft neither understood what the consumer wanted not what the Technology can do to make this a better world - both professionally and otherwise! Prioritise
After Mama helped in the IBM boardroom - Lotus could be buried! Apple - not even close...Netscape was easy! Novel was too easy! Sybase and Borland- Intuit was a tragedy! WordPerfect - that's a shame! Didn't get past first base! Sun and Oracle gave a run for it but couldn't really win over! In every instance partnering, bullying and copying was done sequentially and encouraged by the US laws.
Now seeing things in multi-dimension and parallel processing - it does not look that easy anymore! Who should Microsoft be focusing on?
Google- A Microsoft in the making in the next generation!
Apple - After getting slapped by Microsoft Mr Jobs had a tough round of bouts with Sculley and the recent Google behaviour- Still seems to have the Mojo - only this time stronger and deep pocketed!
Oracle - Seems to have carved out a lane for its fast moving M&A strategy! From database to applications - the competition is not even in the same stadium!
Adobe - looks like Redmond gave up on this one, at least publicly
Nintendo & SONY - may be there is a chance for the number 2 spot - if Apple does not take over the gaming platform in the next two years
Amazon: the neighborhood bully appears to be a silent retail juggernaut in the making.....but hidden behind the curtain might be a huge cloud hanging over the technology roadmap - with Google and the others bulldozing into Cloud Computing -Amazon is practically spreading like a virus. With its Kindle and other consumer aspirations - could be a strong bulldog in the technology to come...
In today's technology Microsoft and the bullies are still dominant and have managed to pay their way out of all anti-competitive measures.....but what is brewing in the pot is not your grandfather's technology! This is a War in different areas and dimension - with every one of them from Apple to Google to Adobe - strong and deep pocketed...and with likes of Eric Schmidt hobnobbing with the DC folks - might be tough for Microsoft to win all the WARS ...as each one of them is not a battle anymore- even if Mr Gates is back - it will be very difficult to dominate the way they did the last couple of decades.
Thank you Mr Gates and Microsoft - for bringing us to today's stage!
As the new slogan for Microsoft resonates - A world without Walls - talking about Apple and Google- In a world with no Walls there is no room for Windows!
Looking at the recent Microsoft campaign - it is vary clear that Microsft neither understood what the consumer wanted not what the Technology can do to make this a better world - both professionally and otherwise! Prioritise
After Mama helped in the IBM boardroom - Lotus could be buried! Apple - not even close...Netscape was easy! Novel was too easy! Sybase and Borland- Intuit was a tragedy! WordPerfect - that's a shame! Didn't get past first base! Sun and Oracle gave a run for it but couldn't really win over! In every instance partnering, bullying and copying was done sequentially and encouraged by the US laws.
Now seeing things in multi-dimension and parallel processing - it does not look that easy anymore! Who should Microsoft be focusing on?
Google- A Microsoft in the making in the next generation!
Apple - After getting slapped by Microsoft Mr Jobs had a tough round of bouts with Sculley and the recent Google behaviour- Still seems to have the Mojo - only this time stronger and deep pocketed!
Oracle - Seems to have carved out a lane for its fast moving M&A strategy! From database to applications - the competition is not even in the same stadium!
Adobe - looks like Redmond gave up on this one, at least publicly
Nintendo & SONY - may be there is a chance for the number 2 spot - if Apple does not take over the gaming platform in the next two years
Amazon: the neighborhood bully appears to be a silent retail juggernaut in the making.....but hidden behind the curtain might be a huge cloud hanging over the technology roadmap - with Google and the others bulldozing into Cloud Computing -Amazon is practically spreading like a virus. With its Kindle and other consumer aspirations - could be a strong bulldog in the technology to come...
In today's technology Microsoft and the bullies are still dominant and have managed to pay their way out of all anti-competitive measures.....but what is brewing in the pot is not your grandfather's technology! This is a War in different areas and dimension - with every one of them from Apple to Google to Adobe - strong and deep pocketed...and with likes of Eric Schmidt hobnobbing with the DC folks - might be tough for Microsoft to win all the WARS ...as each one of them is not a battle anymore- even if Mr Gates is back - it will be very difficult to dominate the way they did the last couple of decades.
Thank you Mr Gates and Microsoft - for bringing us to today's stage!
As the new slogan for Microsoft resonates - A world without Walls - talking about Apple and Google- In a world with no Walls there is no room for Windows!
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Is Google the Next Microsoft?
Looking at how Google is behaving/projecting itself to the outside world- looks similar to how Gates and Microsoft had behaved before they started losing their mindshare..
Recent Google news:Eric Schmidt is quoted:
"if you don't want to be displayed in Google search don't do it in the first place!"
"We have the knowhow to even predict how the stock prices will behave...but we don't want to do it"
And ofcourse Eric Schmidt was in Apple's board till he was booted out just before their iPhone look alike was leaked!
It will be interesting to see if someone would do a Martha Stewart on Eric marking the slow down of Google? ( Martha Stewart when asked by CNBC about her competitive position in internet against the likes of Gates ...she laughed and said never felt better especially when you look at how Gates spent several million dollars to WIRE his palace just before the 100 dollar wireless router replaced them)
Recent Google news:Eric Schmidt is quoted:
"if you don't want to be displayed in Google search don't do it in the first place!"
"We have the knowhow to even predict how the stock prices will behave...but we don't want to do it"
And ofcourse Eric Schmidt was in Apple's board till he was booted out just before their iPhone look alike was leaked!
It will be interesting to see if someone would do a Martha Stewart on Eric marking the slow down of Google? ( Martha Stewart when asked by CNBC about her competitive position in internet against the likes of Gates ...she laughed and said never felt better especially when you look at how Gates spent several million dollars to WIRE his palace just before the 100 dollar wireless router replaced them)
Monday, December 14, 2009
The Gold Bug!
Can Gold be the Next Oil this year?
Gold ride is shaping up like the bull run of Oil and blow up may be this year!
Reasons:
Old story of Fiat currency & hyper inflation will take a new meaning as unlike in the past US government is supporting a weak currency! And pushing big time towards export – through Manufacturing! Now this being a very different approach from the past – brings a dilemma to the investment community- which used to bet on Gold with the hope of higher rates to support currency! Now that assumption is out the door! With China and Japan fighting to keep their currencies weak to feed US market & European Export book is in the verge of collapse with a weaker dollar- ECB is afraid to let the Dollar collapse as it will break their economy!
The Obama administration is playing a delicate & dangerous game in fixing the local economy – and might get away with it and get rewarded - given the precarious nature of the global political climate!
Talking of climate - Even the climate control will work in the developed economies favor as it could slow down emerging economies in the name of carbon!
During the melt down - the Treasury & Federal Reserve were dancing to the tune of the bond/treasury holders...like PIMCOs of the world- now the cards have changed: Recently Larry Summers immediately slapped PIMCO's assessment of the economy and saw a adjustment from the PIMCO management with some soothing words in line with the Obama play book! From Goldman to GM - everyone playing to the same tune! Geithner & Bernake fighting their role and credentials in congress- unlike anything from the past - shows their courage - even as they fine tune their scripted speech to sound like the Obama administration..the Bonus issues...And on and on....all indicating how strong and determined the current administration has become. Unlike any in the past - this Administration has fully focused on domestic issues and politicallly correct foreign issues - to bring back focus to a balanced labor mix to the American Economy - a deviation from the past several decades where the Administrations have left the economy to drift towards services and white collar jobs....leaving a gaping hole for the labor force.
Gold Speculation : While UK and Germany etc sold Gold at $230 an ounce USA kept its 8100 T of Gold and on book it is valued at $45
Weak Dollar:
The Good: Export oriented economy is supported enabling reduced trade imbalance
The Bad : Import prices increases with expansionary inflation – mitigation: RNB wedded to dollar and China being the largest exporter of the Walmart economy -will keep American Economy & inflation in check
The Ugly: Huge debt burden and the chances of revolt by Bond Holders – Solution: Creating uncertainty in the global market and support from foreign central banks which rely a lot on US market will end up eating by fighting against each other ( China 1-Japan -0 ; India with 200T Gold managed to be creative in keeping a sliding Dollar and a surging local economy from strengthening the Rupee), Fractional EU and Middle East turmoils, Russia on the verge of melt down AGAIN with the low oil price.on and on)
Technically speaking - obviously looking at the rear view mirror - Gold has always topped out at 5X - if we take the current bull run to have originated around 250 - it should be there right about now or just around the corner.
Current Gold price target : ranges from a low of $1500 to a high of $6500! Sounds like the oil prediction from Goldman and Morgan Stanley of last year!
Soros: EU would like to see UK crumble- obviously a wishful thinking given the fact the London Bankers still rule the European Financial markets! The fate of PIGS in the EU community - also underscores the ECB's headSTORM! With regional politics and deficits rampant - ECB will be helpless when France and GErmany fare well at the expense of weaker siblings - this scenario will hinder ECB and other European heads to fight US printing at will.
Gold ride is shaping up like the bull run of Oil and blow up may be this year!
Reasons:
Old story of Fiat currency & hyper inflation will take a new meaning as unlike in the past US government is supporting a weak currency! And pushing big time towards export – through Manufacturing! Now this being a very different approach from the past – brings a dilemma to the investment community- which used to bet on Gold with the hope of higher rates to support currency! Now that assumption is out the door! With China and Japan fighting to keep their currencies weak to feed US market & European Export book is in the verge of collapse with a weaker dollar- ECB is afraid to let the Dollar collapse as it will break their economy!
The Obama administration is playing a delicate & dangerous game in fixing the local economy – and might get away with it and get rewarded - given the precarious nature of the global political climate!
Talking of climate - Even the climate control will work in the developed economies favor as it could slow down emerging economies in the name of carbon!
During the melt down - the Treasury & Federal Reserve were dancing to the tune of the bond/treasury holders...like PIMCOs of the world- now the cards have changed: Recently Larry Summers immediately slapped PIMCO's assessment of the economy and saw a adjustment from the PIMCO management with some soothing words in line with the Obama play book! From Goldman to GM - everyone playing to the same tune! Geithner & Bernake fighting their role and credentials in congress- unlike anything from the past - shows their courage - even as they fine tune their scripted speech to sound like the Obama administration..the Bonus issues...And on and on....all indicating how strong and determined the current administration has become. Unlike any in the past - this Administration has fully focused on domestic issues and politicallly correct foreign issues - to bring back focus to a balanced labor mix to the American Economy - a deviation from the past several decades where the Administrations have left the economy to drift towards services and white collar jobs....leaving a gaping hole for the labor force.
Gold Speculation : While UK and Germany etc sold Gold at $230 an ounce USA kept its 8100 T of Gold and on book it is valued at $45
Weak Dollar:
The Good: Export oriented economy is supported enabling reduced trade imbalance
The Bad : Import prices increases with expansionary inflation – mitigation: RNB wedded to dollar and China being the largest exporter of the Walmart economy -will keep American Economy & inflation in check
The Ugly: Huge debt burden and the chances of revolt by Bond Holders – Solution: Creating uncertainty in the global market and support from foreign central banks which rely a lot on US market will end up eating by fighting against each other ( China 1-Japan -0 ; India with 200T Gold managed to be creative in keeping a sliding Dollar and a surging local economy from strengthening the Rupee), Fractional EU and Middle East turmoils, Russia on the verge of melt down AGAIN with the low oil price.on and on)
Technically speaking - obviously looking at the rear view mirror - Gold has always topped out at 5X - if we take the current bull run to have originated around 250 - it should be there right about now or just around the corner.
Current Gold price target : ranges from a low of $1500 to a high of $6500! Sounds like the oil prediction from Goldman and Morgan Stanley of last year!
Soros: EU would like to see UK crumble- obviously a wishful thinking given the fact the London Bankers still rule the European Financial markets! The fate of PIGS in the EU community - also underscores the ECB's headSTORM! With regional politics and deficits rampant - ECB will be helpless when France and GErmany fare well at the expense of weaker siblings - this scenario will hinder ECB and other European heads to fight US printing at will.
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